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  #1341  
Old 06-14-2018, 09:41 PM
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i just read an article at market watch predicting a coming stock price drop, 40% or so, as stimulus ends and unwinds.

the author has a closing remark: "'Buy and hold' investing is dead for a couple of years."

um, it's not really a buy and hold strategy if hold is only a couple of years.
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  #1342  
Old 06-15-2018, 09:07 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by yoyo View Post
i just read an article at market watch predicting a coming stock price drop, 40% or so, as stimulus ends and unwinds.

the author has a closing remark: "'Buy and hold' investing is dead for a couple of years."

um, it's not really a buy and hold strategy if hold is only a couple of years.
Tax stimulus hasn't even been fully realized.
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  #1343  
Old 06-15-2018, 09:20 AM
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Whenever there is a recession, I think things are going to come crashing down pretty hard again, what with a P/E of 25 and a CAPE of 33. The economy seems to be going strong though so I think we have some more gains ahead of us. But I won't hesitate to seriously pull back on my investments when I think the time is right. That will probably cost me some money in the short term, but I think it will save me money in the medium term. Long live the 200-day moving average!
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  #1344  
Old 06-15-2018, 09:59 AM
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Thread title is pretty funny given the discussion has become "I think I can time the market"
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  #1345  
Old 06-15-2018, 10:09 AM
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Thread title is pretty funny given the discussion has become "I think I can time the market"
Did you read the OP? There is a reason for the "but" in the title.
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  #1346  
Old 06-15-2018, 11:24 AM
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update?
tell me about it, I need his wisdom to predict next weeks opec meeting results and the resulting oil price.
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  #1347  
Old 06-15-2018, 11:53 AM
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update?
My bad about forgetting this. My gains for the month has not been pretty good due to the unpredictable nature of the market (surprise, surprise).

My gains for the month was 3 percent. I made a big gain in the beginning of May but I made incorrect assumptions when Trump backed out of the Iran nuclear deal, when NK and the US decided to meet for the summit and also the China vs US tariff situation, which caused a pretty big hit on my portfolio and lose a lot of the profits I made.

Also, the 10 year treasury fell back to the "normal" level which I didn't expect to happen so quickly and without much volatility.


I expected the market to react pretty negatively to the US backing out of the Iran deal but surprisingly the market held firm and it went on to do well. Same with the NK situation. I see today the market decided to go down a bit from the Trump's approval of the Chinese Tariff...

It's pretty remarkable actually seeing how well and how long this bull market is lasting, which makes me wonder how bad will the market fall once the bear market sets in.
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  #1348  
Old 06-15-2018, 11:53 AM
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tell me about it, I need his wisdom to predict next weeks opec meeting results and the resulting oil price.
I don't know much at all about oil. Never invested on anything related to it and don't plan to.
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  #1349  
Old 06-15-2018, 12:02 PM
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Short term investing is tough not just because of the unpredictable nature of the market but also it drains the hell out of you following the market so often. It's not practical with a full time job (and as a student who is still studying for the exams, etc).
Short term investing works but only if you do it on a full time basis.

With that said, I'm leaning towards just putting my fund on safer investments for long term investing until I go through all the exams.
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