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Bridge Sub-Forums: Frequency and Severity

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  #191  
Old 10-29-2019, 12:08 AM
Steve White Steve White is offline
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Originally Posted by Klaymen View Post
+18.3 after 4, much of that coming in the home stretch...
promising,but you were only 3rd at +12.25. Numbers nerd wins with +23.

Meanwhile in a slightly more important event, we made it to the final 4 of bracket 2 knockouts in the manheim pa regional. We only needed to survive 2 3-ways with 2 survivors each, but did win all the individual matches. Only one bad play, but a real terrible one.

Will issue another 5-way challenge after the other one, the one without Klaymen, is done
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  #192  
Old 10-29-2019, 09:29 PM
Steve White Steve White is offline
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Oirg wins the 4-way with 19.99.

New 5-way issued.

Meanwhile to bracket 2 of the mon-tues knockouts in manheim, we won the semis by about 100 over 24 boards, then the finals by 20 after being up only 1 at the half.
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  #193  
Old 10-30-2019, 02:23 PM
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Meanwhile to bracket 2 of the mon-tues knockouts in manheim, we won the semis by about 100 over 24 boards, then the finals by 20 after being up only 1 at the half.
A KO that pays 15.50 pts over 4 sessions IMHO is way too easy for you, although I can't speak to the other people on your team. I played top bracket in Omaha a year ago and won more than that to lose in round 3. (I know, I know, your team only had so many masterpoints so that's which bracket you landed in)

But congrats nonetheless. I played a 3-session single-bracket KO in August and drew a real C team and we were up 90-0 at the half.
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  #194  
Old 10-30-2019, 09:09 PM
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A KO that pays 15.50 pts over 4 sessions IMHO is way too easy for you, although I can't speak to the other people on your team. I played top bracket in Omaha a year ago and won more than that to lose in round 3. (I know, I know, your team only had so many masterpoints so that's which bracket you landed in)

But congrats nonetheless. I played a 3-session single-bracket KO in August and drew a real C team and we were up 90-0 at the half.
We can play well, but can also play very poorly. 3 of the same 4 entered the wed-thurs kos today. 9 teams in bracket 2. Swiss qualifying today to qualify 4 of 9 for semi-finals. We only got into 4th by 1 VP. So not a joke to be at these levels even though we are good enough that we should have qualified easily. This was again bracket 2, btw. And our primary 4 lost the finals of a bracketed ko and lost in the round of 8 in another bracketed ko, both at the Las Vegas nationals, with brackets based on masterpoints.
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  #195  
Old 10-31-2019, 01:06 AM
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I looked at the power ratings of the top 4 teams in the KO you won, and your team is clearly superior to the other three teams. I’m surprised any of the matches have been close over 24 boards
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  #196  
Old 10-31-2019, 10:04 PM
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I looked at the power ratings of the top 4 teams in the KO you won, and your team is clearly superior to the other three teams. Im surprised any of the matches have been close over 24 boards
You could look up the power ratings of the four teams in the last two rounds of bracket two of the Wed-Thurs KOs. Regardless of power ratings based on results you could conclude we did not belongs in that bracket. The semifinals we did lose by only 12. The consolation match wasn't that close.

Not that results at a single table show anything, but it was very frustrating that in the last 12 boards of the match we had only one plus score, and that was a serious loss of imps in 1NT making 4 when we should clearly have been in game. One of the minus scores was good, a cheap enough sac against a making game.
He were definitely hurt by not having our regular fourth, and probably we would have make the final with our regular 4, and then would have played a different team in the finals. But seems like a reasonable bracket to be playing in.

Not typical of him, but on one hand today my partner ruffed my winner with a natural trump trick, letting the contract make. Only a part score, anyway.
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  #197  
Old 11-01-2019, 10:48 PM
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Oops. I goofed and didn't complete the challenge, which has currently expired. You should be able to see the results in your History tab, and report them here if you wish.

Two new 5-ways issued. One with Klaymen; one with BTDT.
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  #198  
Old 11-02-2019, 01:43 AM
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You could look up the power ratings of the four teams in the last two rounds of bracket two of the Wed-Thurs KOs. Regardless of power ratings based on results you could conclude we did not belongs in that bracket. The semifinals we did lose by only 12. The consolation match wasn't that close.
Some ratings, including yours, are provisional. Your 65.63 is not published because either there are not enough games, or not enough partners. So take that with a grain of salt. Larry Plotkin is a 58.30, Joel Myers is a 57.56 (both ratings not provisional), and there was nothing to be found for Peter Schluman. Even if 65.63 turns out to be an exaggeration, I am about a 61 and I would guess you are at least that.

For Mon/Tues the other three teams in the top 4 had average power ratings of 51.88, 52.17, and 51.12. These teams are in the 60th percentile of bridge players where as your team is probably closer to 85th.

The Wed/Thurs KO is different. The average of the other 3 teams was 58.14, 57.40, and 55.64. So two of your teammates are in the range of all the other players in the Wed/Thurs KO. It was probably a closer match.
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  #199  
Old 11-02-2019, 02:19 AM
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Two new 5-ways issued. One with Klaymen
I'm +17 after 2 although I think I got quite lucky on the auction on one of the boards in the last quarter of the set. Two double digit plus scores is all I have to show for...
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  #200  
Old 11-02-2019, 10:40 AM
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Originally Posted by Klaymen View Post
Some ratings, including yours, are provisional. Your 65.63 is not published because either there are not enough games, or not enough partners. So take that with a grain of salt. Larry Plotkin is a 58.30, Joel Myers is a 57.56 (both ratings not provisional), and there was nothing to be found for Peter Schluman. Even if 65.63 turns out to be an exaggeration, I am about a 61 and I would guess you are at least that.

For Mon/Tues the other three teams in the top 4 had average power ratings of 51.88, 52.17, and 51.12. These teams are in the 60th percentile of bridge players where as your team is probably closer to 85th.

The Wed/Thurs KO is different. The average of the other 3 teams was 58.14, 57.40, and 55.64. So two of your teammates are in the range of all the other players in the Wed/Thurs KO. It was probably a closer match.
Who knows how much value to put on those ratings. Peter and I especially are better at imps (he doesn't have a rating because he almost never plays matchpoints). Joel perhaps is better at matchpoints, I don't really know. He's (on average) the weakest among those 4.

The Wed/Thurs KO did pay 17.33 for first, but that doesn't mean we should have signed up differently. We were in bracket 2 both days. Mon/Tues we won. Wed/Thurs we just barely survived the swiss qualifying day and the lost both KO matches Thurs. No way we could know that Bracket 2 would be significantly weaker (IYO) Wed/Thurs. And the way sign-up works, you can always ask to be in bracket 1, but otherwise you must go by your masterpoint placement. (We didn't even know that ours would be bracket 2; had more teams signed up we might have been in bracket 3).

Besides the opposition, Jonathan Brill who was on the Mon/Tue team instead of Joel, is usually a stronger player than Joel.
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