Actuarial Outpost
 
Go Back   Actuarial Outpost > Exams - Please Limit Discussion to Exam-Related Topics > SoA/CAS Preliminary Exams > Probability
FlashChat Actuarial Discussion Preliminary Exams CAS/SOA Exams Cyberchat Around the World Suggestions


Upload your resume securely at https://www.dwsimpson.com
to be contacted when new jobs meet your skills and objectives.


Probability Old Exam P Forum

Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
  #1  
Old 02-10-2018, 10:40 PM
JohnTravolski JohnTravolski is offline
Member
Non-Actuary
 
Join Date: Aug 2016
Posts: 46
Exclamation Conditional Distribution Problem

The frequency distribution for the number of losses for a policy with no deductible is negative binomial with r = 3 and β = 5. Loss amounts for this policy follow the Weibull distribution with θ = 1000 and τ = 0.3. Determine the expected number of payments when a deductible of 200 is applied.

I'm not entirely sure how to go about this one... am I supposed to find the expected number of claims with loss amounts that are greater than 200? If so, I think that would give me the expected number of payments the question asks for. But if that's what I'm after, how do I calculate that? I can get the probability that an individual loss amount is greater than 200 from the provided Weibull distribution, but then how do I tie that back to the negative binomial distribution?
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 02-12-2018, 12:25 PM
Colymbosathon ecplecticos's Avatar
Colymbosathon ecplecticos Colymbosathon ecplecticos is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Posts: 5,987
Default

Suppose that you knew that there were (say) 10 claims and that the probability that any given claim was bigger than 200 was (say) 30%, how many claims bigger than 200 would you expect?

Now suppose that the number of claims is some random variable, N, ... take it from there.
__________________
"What do you mean I don't have the prerequisites for this class? I've failed it twice before!"


"I think that probably clarifies things pretty good by itself."
Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 11:17 PM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
*PLEASE NOTE: Posts are not checked for accuracy, and do not
represent the views of the Actuarial Outpost or its sponsors.
Page generated in 0.34714 seconds with 11 queries