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 Probability Old Exam P Forum

#21
12-13-2007, 08:29 AM
 volva yet Note Contributor Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Nomadic Studying for GHC/DMAC College: PSU '07 Favorite beer: Oskar Blues Old Chub Scotch Ale Posts: 4,949

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Actuarialsuck Is it proper to say that $f(x) \, = \, Pr(X = x) \, = \, \frac{1}{\theta} e^{-\frac{x}{\theta}}$ ? (just picking on the exponential dist.) Certainly true for discrete dist. but as far as cont. ones go, Pr(X = x) = 0.
That is certainly a valid point.
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#22
12-13-2007, 12:01 PM
 Caitlin525 Member SOA Join Date: Dec 2006 Location: East Coast Studying for ERM-ILA Posts: 130

Here are my notes from exam P. They follow the chapters from the BPP manual, but it shouldn't matter too much if you're trying to read them.

My chart for discrete distributions originally came from "TheTeacher" (thank you!) and then I made my own for continuous distributions (you'll notice that not all of are filled in since in the end I decided it wasn't worth it to memorize them all...which I suppose worked because I recieved a preliminary pass)

Although I tried to check all the formulas, I'm sure there are mistakes in here... so I apologize in advance.

I hope you can download these.. my computer has word 2007 and vista, the combination of which seems to make everything incompatible with everyone else so I had Tom upload it:

http://www.actuarialoutpost.com/down...525-notes2.xps

(When this pops up on my computer it trys to open it as a .zip file, but if i save it to my computer and change the extention to .xps I can then open it)
#23
12-13-2007, 12:29 PM
 jamesy628 Member SOA Join Date: Nov 2007 Location: Boston Favorite beer: Goose Island - 312 Posts: 362

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Caitlin525 I hope you can download these.. my computer has word 2007 and vista, the combination of which seems to make everything incompatible with everyone else so I had Tom upload it: http://www.actuarialoutpost.com/down...525-notes2.xps (When this pops up on my computer it trys to open it as a .zip file, but if i save it to my computer and change the extention to .xps I can then open it)
Can you go back and open it in Vista and then save it as a word 2003 document? I forget what the document type is, but you can save it as an older version of word.... try that and post it?
#24
12-13-2007, 03:26 PM
 Caitlin525 Member SOA Join Date: Dec 2006 Location: East Coast Studying for ERM-ILA Posts: 130

Quote:
 Originally Posted by jamesy628 Can you go back and open it in Vista and then save it as a word 2003 document? I forget what the document type is, but you can save it as an older version of word.... try that and post it?
I'll look when I get home..I didn't realize you could do that..
#25
01-14-2008, 05:25 PM
 J_Mo Member SOA Join Date: May 2007 Location: Iowa Studying for Exam C College: Wartburg College (Alumni) Favorite beer: Shiner Bock Posts: 237

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Actuarialsuck Is it proper to say that $f(x) \, = \, Pr(X = x) \, = \, \frac{1}{\theta} e^{-\frac{x}{\theta}}$ ? (just picking on the exponential dist.) Certainly true for discrete dist. but as far as cont. ones go, Pr(X = x) = 0. Also your formula in the Key Review Formulas for (a+b+c)^2 is incorrect, it is certainly not a + b + c + 2ab + 2bc + 2ac The sum of n consecutive integers is not $\frac{n(n-1)}{2}$, it is $\frac{n(n+1)}{2}$
Thanks for catching those!

I obviously neglected to put the "squares" in my (a+b+c)^2 formula the right side should be a^2 + b^2 + c^2 + 2ab + 2bc + 2ac and I got caught not updating my copy/paste on the sum of n consecutive integers.

I also corrected the notation for the continuous probability function as I carried forward the f(x) = Pr(X=x) from my discrete formula sheet.

For what it is worth corrected copies of those two files are attached here.
Attached Files
 Key Review Formulas (corrected).doc (190.0 KB, 3735 views) Continuous Distributions (corrected).doc (103.5 KB, 3224 views)
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#26
05-09-2008, 09:43 PM
 matt_madison Member Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 175

I found my old notes from last February, and thought I'd post them. The notes are in the pdf file, and were written using LaTeX. The zip file is the original .tex file for those that want to edit the notes.
Attached Images
 Exam P Review.pdf (134.0 KB, 19616 views)
Attached Files
 Exam P Review TeX File.zip (11.9 KB, 2005 views)
#27
05-11-2008, 11:37 PM
 michiko75 Member SOA Join Date: Feb 2008 Location: Chicago IL Favorite beer: Kirin Posts: 51
poisson dist!

The following is poisson dist with

P(claim=0)
x; 20,000 30%
y: 35,000 50%
z: 45,000 90%

Find expected claim of 100,000.

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#28
05-14-2008, 02:09 PM
 wittytimes3 Join Date: Apr 2008 Location: Illinois Studying for Exam FM/2 Posts: 5

Thanks a lot for all of the good notes! I used Christian's notes, fixed a few of the typos and added a few of the things that I thought I would forget.
#29
05-22-2008, 12:05 PM
 vjvj Note Contributor Non-Actuary Join Date: Nov 2005 Location: IL Studying for MFE Posts: 7,543

I used a couple tables of distributions to help me memorize them. They are based on one posted here earlier. I forgot who posted it - my thanks and my apologies for not bothering to look up who it was. My version has a few additions and has different forms of some of the distributions - ones that I preferred.
Attached Files
 Discrete Distributions.doc (353.0 KB, 2439 views) Discrete Distributions Blank.doc (94.5 KB, 1702 views) Continuous Distributions.doc (379.5 KB, 2442 views) Continuous Distributions Blank.doc (101.5 KB, 2002 views)
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#30
05-29-2008, 02:22 AM
 Adamhman Member Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Southern California Studying for FM Favorite beer: Fat Tire Posts: 95
Exam P notes.

My Exam P Distribution Tables.

Attached Files
 Exam P.doc (177.5 KB, 3736 views)