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  #41  
Old 01-23-2019, 01:59 PM
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I don't find P&C Reserving work to be complex. Just a matter of reading a few technical papers and applying it in a modelling platform.
neither is any life work. it's all quite simple, really.
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  #42  
Old 01-23-2019, 02:42 PM
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In Europe/UK....I am.
sure, if garbage work is the standard, you are uniquely qualified
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  #43  
Old 01-23-2019, 09:04 PM
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In Europe/UK....I am.
Interesting that you're qualified over there yet looking for information on how to do it from a US/Canadian source.
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  #44  
Old 01-23-2019, 09:05 PM
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My only advice is to beware of overfitting your models.
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  #45  
Old 01-23-2019, 09:35 PM
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My only advice is to beware of overfitting your models.
Corollary: If you aren't spending time cussing at your misbehaving models, the odds are that you've overfit them....or that you're working on a boring, stable book of business not exposed to changes in environment or the vagaries of the American legal system.
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  #46  
Old 01-23-2019, 10:11 PM
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Interesting that you're qualified over there yet looking for information on how to do it from a US/Canadian source.
Hes qualified over there, and reading basic papers. That has no chance of ending in disaster.
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  #47  
Old 01-23-2019, 11:50 PM
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Originally Posted by The_Polymath View Post
Sorry to break it to you CAS folks, but reserving on a basic level is not hard for the vast majority of the P&C LOBs. The underlying architecture of the calculations is not complicated.

Keep in mind that international clients are not interested in the most sophisticated reserving platform possible. They want something they can use (quickly), and then modify as they see fit once they acquire sufficient skills with the software.

I don't think US folks understand how different (and unsophisticated) a great many countries are when it comes to P&C Reserving. Going from their existing platform in excel to IFRS 17 compliant is going to be a multi-stage process.
so, you are asking "CAS folks" for help in setting up an admittedly unsophisticated reserving model that apparently doesn't have to be any good right now. Do I follow that correctly? I don't think you need anyone's help (credentialed or otherwise) to set something up that isn't sophisticated or very accurate.

I am not saying that's a good thing, but that seems to be what you have asked for - and in which case you likely are 99% of the way to accomplishing it without the help if you have been reading relevant stuff.

Does your consulting marketing material show expertise in setting up unsophisticated models?
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  #48  
Old 01-24-2019, 04:42 AM
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Originally Posted by tommie frazier View Post
so, you are asking "CAS folks" for help in setting up an admittedly unsophisticated reserving model that apparently doesn't have to be any good right now. Do I follow that correctly? I don't think you need anyone's help (credentialed or otherwise) to set something up that isn't sophisticated or very accurate.

I am not saying that's a good thing, but that seems to be what you have asked for - and in which case you likely are 99% of the way to accomplishing it without the help if you have been reading relevant stuff.

Does your consulting marketing material show expertise in setting up unsophisticated models?
I think people from the CAS need to realise that you can do life & non-life consulting at the same time from a modelling perspective.

Compared to the complexity of the models that I used to design in my previous job this is truly a walk in the park.

I am also a bit disappointed in how the CAS folks have banged on and on in this thread trying to make what they do sound complicated.

I'm sorry, but it really isn't. And that is my professional opinion. This thread was primarily created about a company simply using excel for reserving, which is what I found odd given that companies now have access to more sophisticated modelling platforms. I wanted to check on how common this was for my own curiousity.

It was after that where the entitled CAS brigade came out of the woodwork.

Not a good look for you folks from across the pond.
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  #49  
Old 01-24-2019, 05:15 AM
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Also, just to add:

None of you have expertise with IFRS 17, so your views are quite simply not applicable to the work that I am doing on the modelling front.
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  #50  
Old 01-24-2019, 05:48 AM
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Furthermore, the IFRS-17 standard, as written, does a very poor job of recognizing the link that should exist between subject business and reinsurance, resulting in some potentially bizarre gross vs. net results.
The reinsurance issue was raised by many companies, and the IASB voted yesterday to change some of the aspects of the treatment of reinsurance under IFRS 17.

Public consultations about the issue will be later on this year. On the whole, I do think the IASB recognises that the reinsurance component of IFRS 17 needs further work.
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