Actuarial Outpost Course 3 discussion
 Register Blogs Wiki FAQ Calendar Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read
 FlashChat Actuarial Discussion Preliminary Exams CAS/SOA Exams Cyberchat Around the World Suggestions

ACTUARIAL SALARY SURVEYS
Contact DW Simpson for a Personalized Salary Survey

 Probability Old Exam P Forum

#11
11-06-2001, 08:45 PM
 Anonymous Guest Posts: n/a

there were q's in the table so i just multiplied
p([60])*p([60]+1)..p(65)
#12
11-06-2001, 08:50 PM
 Anonymous Guest Posts: n/a

Was that the joint life/last survivor problem where one was selected earlier than the other?
#13
11-06-2001, 08:53 PM
 Anonymous Guest Posts: n/a

no..it was one person problem
he was61 at 1/1/2001 and selected at 60
question was what is the Pr he's alive on 1/1/2006
#14
11-06-2001, 08:59 PM
 Anonymous Guest Posts: n/a

If I recall properly, the table was an associated decrement table. Then yes, you do the products of the annual survival probs. Each one being a product of the associated annual survival probs for that year. If q's were given then find p's by subtracting from 1. ????????
#15
11-06-2001, 09:06 PM
 Anonymous Guest Posts: n/a

By the way, was that Pareto question a pacifier or what?

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: idikoko on 2001-11-06 21:07 ]</font>
#16
11-06-2001, 09:08 PM
 aces219 Member Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: Chicago Posts: 2,667

I got C for Q2. You only needed to multiply together 5 p's, since selection was at age 60, but he is currently age 61. I could have made an arithmetic error though.
#17
11-06-2001, 09:09 PM
 Anonymous Guest Posts: n/a

For the mean excess loss question:

E[X] = E[X / d] + e(d) * (1 - F(d))

At d = 1000 F(d) = 1.
Now that you know E[X], just plug into the convetional formula.
#18
11-06-2001, 09:18 PM
 Anonymous Guest Posts: n/a

Was d not 100?

I remember a policy limit of 1000, not D of 1000
#19
11-06-2001, 09:21 PM
 Anonymous Guest Posts: n/a

Yes, you needed to find for d = 100. But you had to use the fact that at d = 1000 F is 1, first to find E[X]. The formula for the mean excess loss is (E[X] - E[x/d])/ (1-F(d))
#20
11-06-2001, 09:30 PM
 jaegar Member Join Date: Nov 2001 Posts: 169

What is the deal with #2?!? was he alive at age 61, or is he 61 at 1/1/2001? I dont remember the exact wording of the statement, but I interpreted it as he will be 61 as of 1/1/2001. Therefore, I found the probability he will be alive in six years give age 60. Low and behold, it was one of the possible answers. If you are to assume he has attained age 61, given there statement, and that is the answer. The question seems a bit suspect to me. The statement is too ambiguous....specially since both answers are options.