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#1
03-20-2012, 12:14 AM
 snake Member Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: NY Posts: 61

What does the "% where mine opens" mean?
#2
03-20-2012, 04:28 AM
 Sentinel Guest Posts: n/a

there is a possibility Can-Do will not open the mine. You are estimating probability that assay results will come back that discourage Can-Do from opening the mine. Re-read that section again and again and again. good luck.
#3
03-20-2012, 08:41 AM
 ebeebs Member SOA Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: New England Posts: 2,989

Look specifically at #13.c

Use assays to determine the decay rate. More assays = more accurate decay right & more expensive to do the tests.

The decay rate is then compared to the minimum to mine amount. If decay > MTM, it opens.

When the model runs its 1000 simulations for each scenario, each simulation had a different estimated decay rate. % where mine opens is what percentage of those simulations have a decay rate higher than the minimum to mine amount that you picked.
#4
03-20-2012, 09:48 AM
 snake Member Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: NY Posts: 61

In 13 it states to get the decay rate from cash flow tab but how do we set the min to mine? It states in c that the mine owners set it.

Last edited by snake; 03-20-2012 at 10:08 AM..
#5
03-20-2012, 10:47 AM
 NotUrAvgXBar Member SOA Join Date: Jul 2010 Posts: 2,958

Quote:
 Originally Posted by snake Thank you for your help. In 13 it states to get the decay rate from cash flow tab but how do we set the min to mine? It states in c that the mine owners set it.
You set the MTM so that you get the best results. How do you decide which results are best? That's what you're supposed to answer in question 2. What is the actual MTM you use? That's what you're supposed to answer in question 3.
#6
03-20-2012, 10:50 AM
 snake Member Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: NY Posts: 61

Thank you. 13 C just threw me off. MAkes sense.
#7
03-20-2012, 01:42 PM
 WhyAndHow Member SOA Join Date: Oct 2008 Studying for GH-COR Posts: 4,079

Quote:
 Originally Posted by ebeebs Look specifically at #13.c Use assays to determine the decay rate. More assays = more accurate decay right & more expensive to do the tests. The decay rate is then compared to the minimum to mine amount. If decay > MTM, it opens. When the model runs its 1000 simulations for each scenario, each simulation had a different estimated decay rate. % where mine opens is what percentage of those simulations have a decay rate higher than the minimum to mine amount that you picked.
The model actually only has 10 different decay rates simulated. With 100 different gold price scenarios, this makes 1000 scenarios.
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 Tags can do, can-do, fa task 3