
#1




Can Do Mining  Task 1
Since there is a new FA, I thought I will start the threads for others to comment.
The question asks for general improvements that can be made to previously provided assumptions/modeling. My answer: "whoever" wrote this assignment seems to know how to use stochastic modeling so use it to project all the economic variables and then use them in this model (kinda secondary model within the model kinda idea). Also, there are old threads on AO that can be helpful in doing this assignment. It seems that the SOA has made some changes though (e.g. the macro does the calculations for VaR and CTE now but previously, it seems, the students were supposed to do these calculations themselves). For example: here is a link from 07/2008: http://www.actuarialoutpost.com/actu...d.php?t=142137 Last edited by actuary0123; 12172010 at 03:31 AM.. 
#2




I was really curious what was happening behind the scenes to generate the numbers in rows 2433 of the Scenarios and Results tab.
I went into the Macro for "Run Scenario" and deleted the line that read " Range("BEGONE").ClearContents". Now it is a little more transparent, as the rows all the way down to row 2085 are now populated. 
#3




hi jcmhigh5,
i'm not to familiar with macros. can you please summarize you findings as to what rows 2433 are suppose to show? espically the mean and std? Thanks! 
#4




Just look at the forumlas that are in cells B24B33. B24 is "=AVERAGE(B84:B1083)/1000/1000", thus it is is average of the ending cash amount for all 1000 simulations in a particular scenario. The /1000 and /1000 part is just making it in terms of $ million.
The Standard Deviation is just the standard deviation of those ending cash amounts for the 1000 simulations. 
#5




One thing I've done to make this spreadsheet easier to read is to make the background of every cell dark orange  that way I can see the black text and the white text without having to dig around for white text to reveal manually.

#6




thx u all~

#8




Can anyone help with recommendations for model improvements? I'm having an issue specifically with regards to noneconomic model deficiancies.
In terms of economic ones, I believe that the exchange rate, cost of borrowing, yield for investing, and inflation could be modeled better, but what about noneconomic assumptions? Any ideas would be appreciated. Thanks. Last edited by snale86; 05042011 at 07:13 PM.. 
#9




Anyone?

#10




HELP!!! MY EXAM IS DUE IN 10 HOURS. ANYONE HAVE ANY IDEAS FOR NONECONOMIC MODEL IMPROVEMENTS???
THANKS 
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cando, final assessment, task 1 
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