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  #1  
Old 12-17-2010, 03:16 AM
actuary0123 actuary0123 is offline
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Default Can Do Mining - Task 1

Since there is a new FA, I thought I will start the threads for others to comment.

The question asks for general improvements that can be made to previously provided assumptions/modeling.

My answer: "whoever" wrote this assignment seems to know how to use stochastic modeling so use it to project all the economic variables and then use them in this model (kinda secondary model within the model kinda idea).

Also, there are old threads on AO that can be helpful in doing this assignment. It seems that the SOA has made some changes though (e.g. the macro does the calculations for VaR and CTE now but previously, it seems, the students were supposed to do these calculations themselves). For example: here is a link from 07/2008:

http://www.actuarialoutpost.com/actu...d.php?t=142137

Last edited by actuary0123; 12-17-2010 at 03:31 AM..
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Old 12-17-2010, 11:12 AM
jcm-high5 jcm-high5 is offline
 
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I was really curious what was happening behind the scenes to generate the numbers in rows 24-33 of the Scenarios and Results tab.

I went into the Macro for "Run Scenario" and deleted the line that read " Range("BEGONE").ClearContents". Now it is a little more transparent, as the rows all the way down to row 2085 are now populated.
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Old 12-17-2010, 05:21 PM
examtaker555 examtaker555 is offline
 
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hi jcm-high5,
i'm not to familiar with macros. can you please summarize you findings as to what rows 24-33 are suppose to show? espically the mean and std?
Thanks!
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  #4  
Old 12-18-2010, 11:41 AM
jcm-high5 jcm-high5 is offline
 
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Just look at the forumlas that are in cells B24-B33. B24 is "=AVERAGE(B84:B1083)/1000/1000", thus it is is average of the ending cash amount for all 1000 simulations in a particular scenario. The /1000 and /1000 part is just making it in terms of $ million.

The Standard Deviation is just the standard deviation of those ending cash amounts for the 1000 simulations.
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  #5  
Old 12-18-2010, 03:40 PM
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Passacaglia Passacaglia is offline
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One thing I've done to make this spreadsheet easier to read is to make the background of every cell dark orange -- that way I can see the black text and the white text without having to dig around for white text to reveal manually.
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Old 12-18-2010, 11:18 PM
examtaker555 examtaker555 is offline
 
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thx u all~
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Old 02-12-2011, 06:18 PM
JSteezy JSteezy is offline
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I would recommend doing Tasks 2-5 and then coming back to this one. Particularly 5.
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Old 05-04-2011, 04:44 PM
snale86 snale86 is offline
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Can anyone help with recommendations for model improvements? I'm having an issue specifically with regards to non-economic model deficiancies.

In terms of economic ones, I believe that the exchange rate, cost of borrowing, yield for investing, and inflation could be modeled better, but what about non-economic assumptions?

Any ideas would be appreciated. Thanks.

Last edited by snale86; 05-04-2011 at 07:13 PM..
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  #9  
Old 05-05-2011, 09:35 AM
snale86 snale86 is offline
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Anyone?
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Old 05-06-2011, 12:14 AM
snale86 snale86 is offline
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HELP!!! MY EXAM IS DUE IN 10 HOURS. ANYONE HAVE ANY IDEAS FOR NON-ECONOMIC MODEL IMPROVEMENTS???

THANKS
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