Actuarial Outpost
 
Go Back   Actuarial Outpost > Exams - Please Limit Discussion to Exam-Related Topics > SoA > Modules 6-8
FlashChat Actuarial Discussion Preliminary Exams CAS/SOA Exams Cyberchat Around the World Suggestions


Not looking for a job? Tell us about your ideal job,
and we'll only contact you when it opens up.
https://www.dwsimpson.com/register


Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
  #1  
Old 06-18-2011, 11:42 PM
Joseph_Z Joseph_Z is offline
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Posts: 13
Default Can-Do Task 7

Hi,
I am a little confused about Can-Do Task 7. We were given actual gold price, and it's a lot higher than the original model output for 5 years. Are we supposed to revise the gold price model? Or still use the old model but simply paste the 20 quarters gold price into the spreadsheet? seems like it's impossible to revise the gold price simulations.

Even if I do that, the future gold price is still a lot lower than the actual 5 year data but I thought gold price should go up slowly. So do we need to adjust future gold price starting from quarter 21 by some reasonable number?

Am I missing anything?

Thanks
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 06-19-2011, 01:00 AM
Bballry1234's Avatar
Bballry1234 Bballry1234 is offline
Member
SOA
 
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: Your mom's bed
Studying for NOTHING!
Favorite beer: Does Redbull count?
Posts: 763
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Joseph_Z View Post
Hi,
I am a little confused about Can-Do Task 7. We were given actual gold price, and it's a lot higher than the original model output for 5 years. Are we supposed to revise the gold price model? Or still use the old model but simply paste the 20 quarters gold price into the spreadsheet? seems like it's impossible to revise the gold price simulations.

Even if I do that, the future gold price is still a lot lower than the actual 5 year data but I thought gold price should go up slowly. So do we need to adjust future gold price starting from quarter 21 by some reasonable number?

Am I missing anything?

Thanks
I wouldn't talk about gold prices. The directions say not to.
__________________
ASA FSAmods DP CSP DMAC FAC CERA?
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 06-19-2011, 01:06 AM
Joseph_Z Joseph_Z is offline
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Posts: 13
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bballry1234 View Post
I wouldn't talk about gold prices. The directions say not to.
Thank you! that's what I thought.
Do you think we're supposed to do the projection as of the original begin date with revised assumptions or paste in the new data for 20 quarters and start the projection at t=20 using the revised assumptions?

Or Am I reading it wrong? We are only supposed to propose assumption changes, not revised profitability projection?

Thanks a lot!

Last edited by Joseph_Z; 06-19-2011 at 01:12 AM..
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 06-19-2011, 10:58 AM
escapebaby's Avatar
escapebaby escapebaby is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2010
Posts: 297
Default

I would think only propose assumption changes
__________________
It's just circumstantial factor
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 06-19-2011, 05:14 PM
Bballry1234's Avatar
Bballry1234 Bballry1234 is offline
Member
SOA
 
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: Your mom's bed
Studying for NOTHING!
Favorite beer: Does Redbull count?
Posts: 763
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by escapebaby View Post
I would think only propose assumption changes
I concur.
__________________
ASA FSAmods DP CSP DMAC FAC CERA?
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 06-19-2011, 09:22 PM
Joseph_Z Joseph_Z is offline
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Posts: 13
Default

Thanks a lot guys.!
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 06-19-2011, 10:48 PM
ActuarialBAMF ActuarialBAMF is offline
Member
SOA
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Studying for FAP Modules
College: University of Connecticut
Favorite beer: All the beer
Posts: 530
Default

I'm very happy with my submission for this one and I only focused on assumption changes. I don't think I even alluded to gold price except for in the context of assumptions that depend on it that I'd be changing
__________________
  • ASA
  • FSA Modules(FHE,R&T,OR)
  • FSA EXams (ILA-CSP, ILA-DP)
  • DMAC
  • FAC
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 06-29-2011, 03:45 PM
granny fiver's Avatar
granny fiver granny fiver is offline
SOA
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Studying for FAP
Posts: 15
Default

Do you think we're supposed to propose how to change the assumptions specifically (e.g., new constants for calculating labor costs), or just explain which assumptions we think should be changed and why, but not specify what the new assumption should be?
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 06-29-2011, 04:05 PM
Actuarial007 Actuarial007 is offline
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 15
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by granny fiver View Post
Do you think we're supposed to propose how to change the assumptions specifically (e.g., new constants for calculating labor costs), or just explain which assumptions we think should be changed and why, but not specify what the new assumption should be?
propose new numbers and state why.

Last edited by Actuarial007; 06-29-2011 at 06:57 PM..
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 07-06-2011, 01:31 PM
Bballry1234's Avatar
Bballry1234 Bballry1234 is offline
Member
SOA
 
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: Your mom's bed
Studying for NOTHING!
Favorite beer: Does Redbull count?
Posts: 763
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Actuarial007 View Post
propose new numbers and state why.
I concur.
__________________
ASA FSAmods DP CSP DMAC FAC CERA?
Reply With Quote
Reply

Tags
can-do, final assessment, task 7

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 03:23 PM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
*PLEASE NOTE: Posts are not checked for accuracy, and do not
represent the views of the Actuarial Outpost or its sponsors.
Page generated in 0.32877 seconds with 9 queries