
#41




Quote:
Does that make more sense? 
#42




Quote:
The first Q nonlabour cost (from the new data) is $4,313,504, which consists energy, delivery and maint cost. But the energy cost itself is 4,500,000 for 2 shifts, which is more than the total nonlabour cost!!!!! Also for the following years, you can't just simply divide the current Q by the previous Q to get the inflation. Each Q has 40*(1decay) in the nonlabour cost, which is also changing. So, dividing the current/previous Q cost will not give us the inflation. 
#43




Now I get it...Energy cost for two shifts can easly be calculated. For all the other costs (delivery & equipment main) are fixed. My energy cost for two shifts is $4,196,504. Did anyone get the same thing?

#44




Then based on the new Energy cost for two shifts, I was able to calculate the Total nonlabour cost without inflation. Then compared it with (total costlabour) and the ratio of the two was the inflation. However, the inflation is different for every Q. Which, means stochastic modeling for inflation.
Now I just need to figure out how to do the samething for one shift! 
#45




For 1 shift I just did whatever I did to 2 shifts proportionately...i.e. labor a up X% shift 1 and 2, labor b down Y% 1 and 2

#50




Quote:
Also, while it is true that dividing the current quarter nonlabor costs by the previous quarter will not give you the exact inflation rate, I think you'll find that it's a good approximation because delivery costs take up such a small portion of the total nonlabor cost. For example, let's suppose that in the first quarter, the delivery and maintainence costs are as expected ($1.0/once and $100,000, respectively). So the delivery cost would be $16,000 ($1.0/oz * 40 oz/ton * 400 tons). But the total nonlabor costs for the quarter is > $4.3 million! Also, as you progress through the quarters, the portion that makes up delivery cost will continue to diminish because the gold yield itself keeps diminishing. I'm not saying your method is wrong, but I think you might be making this harder than it has to be. Just my opinion. 
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