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#1




CanDo: Task 5
For sensitivity testing:
Use the base scenario MTM, Assays and hedging% already chosen from task 3 &4. And changing an assumption to measure the the change in Mean?! right? 
#3




This one's taking me forever.
I just need to finish this up and work on my summary some more. Can't wait for tomorrow. Sigh.
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#4




Don't beat around the bush, posters. We can talk about this one freely.
Show the effect on everything you think that matters. In particular, I would include your scenario ranking criterion at the very least. You may want to include other measures also, at your discretion. Explain the effect of those parameters on the measures. Why is that happening?
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#5




Yeah, positive and negative effects on the mean basically cancel each other out in most cases. I think you want to focus on other things being affected.
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#6




I provided a table of outcomes including the base outcome and about five adverse outcomes. For each, I provided every stat modeled, and gave an overview of "what's going on."
Important to remember: suppose in your scenario the mine does not open 35% of the time. There is only one expected profit number for a third of your outcomes. >effect on mean >effect on variance and why (usually because the mean drops toward the bulk of outcomes) >effect on VaR (do mineopen scenarios get worse? mineclosed? both?) >effect on CTE (usually we have tail events getting more severe) >effect on your ranking criteria >when might you rethink opening the mine? how bad does it have to get? is that plausible?
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#7




Did you do this for every assumption? I'm worried about putting in too many tables/graphs..

#9




Yes. I had one table for each assumption. The table doesn't have to be enormous. This was my longest answer.
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#10




Quote:
Is it not enough to test for all assumptions and see the effect on Mean & the Metric from Task 2?? Do I need low/moderate/severe fluctuations per assumption  so 6 sensitivities per assumption ? or Is it enough with one positive & one negative movement per assumption?
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