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  #1  
Old 08-07-2012, 08:10 AM
irana irana is offline
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Default Can-Do: Task 5

For sensitivity testing:
Use the base scenario MTM, Assays and hedging% already chosen from task 3 &4. And changing an assumption to measure the the change in Mean?! right?
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Old 08-07-2012, 08:22 AM
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Well, not just the change in mean...

Last edited by ebeebs; 08-07-2012 at 08:27 AM..
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Old 10-25-2012, 06:25 PM
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This one's taking me forever.
I just need to finish this up and work on my summary some more.
Can't wait for tomorrow.
Sigh.
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Old 10-26-2012, 10:33 AM
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Don't beat around the bush, posters. We can talk about this one freely.

Show the effect on everything you think that matters. In particular, I would include your scenario ranking criterion at the very least. You may want to include other measures also, at your discretion. Explain the effect of those parameters on the measures. Why is that happening?
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Old 10-29-2012, 09:45 AM
Gedankenexperiment Gedankenexperiment is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ebeebs View Post
Well, not just the change in mean...
Yeah, positive and negative effects on the mean basically cancel each other out in most cases. I think you want to focus on other things being affected.
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Old 10-29-2012, 11:32 AM
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I provided a table of outcomes including the base outcome and about five adverse outcomes. For each, I provided every stat modeled, and gave an overview of "what's going on."

Important to remember: suppose in your scenario the mine does not open 35% of the time. There is only one expected profit number for a third of your outcomes.

>effect on mean
>effect on variance and why (usually because the mean drops toward the bulk of outcomes)
>effect on VaR (do mine-open scenarios get worse? mine-closed? both?)
>effect on CTE (usually we have tail events getting more severe)
>effect on your ranking criteria
>when might you re-think opening the mine? how bad does it have to get? is that plausible?
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Old 11-18-2012, 02:36 PM
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Did you do this for every assumption? I'm worried about putting in too many tables/graphs..
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Old 11-18-2012, 05:54 PM
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Quote:
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Did you do this for every assumption? I'm worried about putting in too many tables/graphs..
I did. It's fairly easy to summarize in one table.
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Old 11-20-2012, 12:29 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ashley_n_h View Post
Did you do this for every assumption? I'm worried about putting in too many tables/graphs..
Yes. I had one table for each assumption. The table doesn't have to be enormous. This was my longest answer.
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Old 12-17-2012, 12:15 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mathmajor View Post
I provided a table of outcomes including the base outcome and about five adverse outcomes. For each, I provided every stat modeled, and gave an overview of "what's going on."

Important to remember: suppose in your scenario the mine does not open 35% of the time. There is only one expected profit number for a third of your outcomes.

>effect on mean
>effect on variance and why (usually because the mean drops toward the bulk of outcomes)
>effect on VaR (do mine-open scenarios get worse? mine-closed? both?)
>effect on CTE (usually we have tail events getting more severe)
>effect on your ranking criteria
>when might you re-think opening the mine? how bad does it have to get? is that plausible?
Effect on all of these??

Is it not enough to test for all assumptions and see the effect on Mean & the Metric from Task 2??

Do I need low/moderate/severe fluctuations per assumption - so 6 sensitivities per assumption ? or Is it enough with one positive & one negative movement per assumption?
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