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  #1161  
Old 02-12-2018, 03:34 PM
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i threw a little money in on friday, but i did the same thing last friday, and the friday before that, and the friday before that, etc. (mrs yoyo and i get paid every other friday, but not on the same friday)

it's worked out pretty well so far
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  #1162  
Old 02-12-2018, 03:36 PM
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i threw a little money in on friday, but i did the same thing last friday, and the friday before that, and the friday before that, etc. (mrs yoyo and i get paid every other friday, but not on the same friday)

it's worked out pretty well so far
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  #1163  
Old 02-12-2018, 05:18 PM
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Does anybody else hate themselves for never spending time to look into the VIX ETN's and possible liquidation events as well as the premium/discounts they were trading at?

XIV was a massive market failure (stuff like that is why I chose this name, although SADMAN thinks it's because I fancied myself a stock picker), because it was probably trading at a 300% premium at the end of the day before getting crushed in after hours (guessing it was easily shortable). I'm less interested in why volatility spiked that day or why they are closing XIV than I am why it was trading down 15% on a day when the VIX was up over 100%. I was able to play several inefficiencies from like 2007 through 2013 but the easy ones dried up and I never advanced to looking at ETN's or even the VIX based products in general. It reminds me of the UCR and DCR (oil based Open ended funds that had a broken creation/redemption mechanism), that had multiple arbitrage opportunities, but even those didn't liquidate and trigger like XIV (from 90 at close to like 15 in after hours).. they took several months to play out.

I follow a lot of financial people on twitter and I don't see anybody bragging about the windfall they made on XIV (or SVXY which had similar issues but lower magnitude) which boggles the mind. Argh Seems like a trade that should have been on my radar.

Last edited by lulzEMH; 02-12-2018 at 09:58 PM..
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  #1164  
Old 02-13-2018, 02:58 PM
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My guess is early today was the best time for dip buying.
Seems like the market sort of stabilized.
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  #1165  
Old 02-13-2018, 03:17 PM
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Ppl waiting on CPI #s coming out tomorrow. Potential for some chaos. Also apparently a bunch of VIX contracts are expiring tomorrow, which traditionally has lead to sharp changes?? Article on that piece didn't make much sense to me initially though.
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  #1166  
Old 02-13-2018, 04:15 PM
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Ppl waiting on CPI #s coming out tomorrow. Potential for some chaos. Also apparently a bunch of VIX contracts are expiring tomorrow, which traditionally has lead to sharp changes?? Article on that piece didn't make much sense to me initially though.
I honestly don't think the cpi report will affect the market too much given it won't be too out of hand. If it ends up being higher than expected, it could help the stock market, but of course with the media and analysts exaggerating everything it will create a short term panic.

As for vix, yes I heard that it could spike near the end of its maturity but I don't touch things idk too much about.
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  #1167  
Old 02-14-2018, 12:57 AM
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Does anybody else hate themselves for never spending time to look into the VIX ETN's and possible liquidation events as well as the premium/discounts they were trading at?
No.
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  #1168  
Old 02-14-2018, 07:59 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lulzEMH View Post
Does anybody else hate themselves for never spending time to look into the VIX ETN's and possible liquidation events as well as the premium/discounts they were trading at?

XIV was a massive market failure (stuff like that is why I chose this name, although SADMAN thinks it's because I fancied myself a stock picker), because it was probably trading at a 300% premium at the end of the day before getting crushed in after hours (guessing it was easily shortable). I'm less interested in why volatility spiked that day or why they are closing XIV than I am why it was trading down 15% on a day when the VIX was up over 100%. I was able to play several inefficiencies from like 2007 through 2013 but the easy ones dried up and I never advanced to looking at ETN's or even the VIX based products in general. It reminds me of the UCR and DCR (oil based Open ended funds that had a broken creation/redemption mechanism), that had multiple arbitrage opportunities, but even those didn't liquidate and trigger like XIV (from 90 at close to like 15 in after hours).. they took several months to play out.

I follow a lot of financial people on twitter and I don't see anybody bragging about the windfall they made on XIV (or SVXY which had similar issues but lower magnitude) which boggles the mind. Argh Seems like a trade that should have been on my radar.
With respect to the bold I stumbled across this article on Capstone betting against XIV
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-doubts-on-xiv
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  #1169  
Old 02-14-2018, 08:37 AM
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Here comes some selloffs.
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  #1170  
Old 02-14-2018, 09:23 AM
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With respect to the bold I stumbled across this article on Capstone betting against XIV
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-doubts-on-xiv
Thanks for the link.

"Brittonís firm bet against the XIV toward the market close on Feb. 5, and profited as the index plunged from $99 a share to $7.35 the next day, according to a person with knowledge of the matter. "

This is what I found most interesting or more that it fell from 99 at 4pm close to like 15 by 7pm.

I traded +-.5% of NAV through most of 2015 and 2016. Towards the end the range increased to like +-1.5%. The days leading up to the collapse the premium increased to 4%, 5%, 8% the day before and then was basically 300%+ right before market close on friday. How a 2B fund can do something like is fascinating to me. The article mentioned Reddit Forums. I know on twitter the Howard Lidzen? founder of stocktweets kept talking about how much he was buying on the way down. Amazing how much the social media effect can lead to rapid mispricing of a highly liquid/large float product.
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