Actuarial Outpost September 2019 Progress Thread
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#1
06-15-2019, 12:27 PM
 ActuarybyInduction SOA Join Date: Jul 2014 College: Postgraduate Posts: 10

Creating a thread for the September sitting.
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#2
06-28-2019, 09:47 PM
 ActuarybyInduction SOA Join Date: Jul 2014 College: Postgraduate Posts: 10
Lower bound of leverage

Is there any reason why the lower bound of a leveraged point h_ii is 1/n instead of 0?

If we look at the variance of the residual var(e_i) = sigma^2 x (1-h_ii); isn't it possible for h_ii = 0 and thus var(e_i) = sigma^2?

Thanks
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#3
06-29-2019, 03:23 AM
 ambroselo Member SOA Join Date: Sep 2018 Location: Iowa City College: University of Iowa Posts: 39

Quote:
 Originally Posted by ActuarybyInduction Is there any reason why the lower bound of a leveraged point h_ii is 1/n instead of 0? If we look at the variance of the residual var(e_i) = sigma^2 x (1-h_ii); isn't it possible for h_ii = 0 and thus var(e_i) = sigma^2? Thanks
The proof of the lower bound is mainly matrix algebra that isn't required for the exam. To get some ideas, look at the formula of the leverage for simple linear regression, or equation (3.2.1) in the ACTEX manual. The second term, (x_i - bar(x))^2 / S_xx, is non-negative, so the leverage is at least 1/n. Equality holds if and only if x_i is exactly equal to the sample mean bar(x).
#4
07-05-2019, 04:42 PM
 ActuarybyInduction SOA Join Date: Jul 2014 College: Postgraduate Posts: 10

Thanks. This helped.
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#5
08-28-2019, 10:45 PM
 TheActuarialNoob CAS SOA Join Date: May 2018 Studying for SRM Posts: 8

1 week till the exam window. How is everyone feeling?
Personally, I feel unsure if I'm prepared or not. There aren't enough practice problems to get a feel for the true nature of the exam.
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#6
09-15-2019, 07:27 PM
 anothermathteacher SOA Join Date: Aug 2017 Posts: 25

Any reactions from the September sitting? I'm still spooked out that the SRM threads get no love...

I found that it was, more or less, what I expected. I nailed all fifteen-ish computational questions that came my way, would estimate that I also nailed 5-10 of the conceptual, and was able to narrow down the remaining 10-15 conceptual questions down to two or three options.

Wondering if anyone was surprised (pleasantly or unpleasantly) by the sitting or if, like me, it was kind of like you thought it might be.
#7
10-11-2019, 12:34 AM
 ActuarybyInduction SOA Join Date: Jul 2014 College: Postgraduate Posts: 10

Thanks for checking in. For me work picked up a lot before the exam and unfortunately I couldn't shift things around to get the necessary study time, so I pushed my sitting to January. Good news is that work has lighten up significantly and I plan to have sufficient time to prepare.

I'll be on this thread much more over the next few months and will definitely provide feedback on the exam.
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ASA in progress

P, FM, MFE, MLC, C, SRM, Predictive Analytics, VEE, FAP, APC