Actuarial Outpost Fall 2018 LTAM Progress Thread
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 Long-Term Actuarial Math Old Exam MLC Forum

#271
09-27-2018, 12:36 PM
 gaudettj Member SOA Join Date: Nov 2013 Location: Canada Studying for FAP / C Favorite beer: All of the Above Posts: 254

Quote:
 Originally Posted by NchooseK 1) Writing fast enough, punching calculator buttons and reading tables. The WA questions can get cumbersome, the numbers are messy and we need to document our work presentably to obtain either full credit or not lose partial credit. This exam is truly a race. 2) Multiple and associated decrement formulas and identities to save time. 3) Multiple lives problems can be tricky: reversionary annuities, contingent probability manipulation, recalling certain identities immediately. 4) Lovely stuff like this: $\sum\limits^{12\left(n-w-\frac{1}{12}\right)}_{k=0} _{\frac{k}{12}}p^{00}_{x} \cdot \ _{\frac{1}{12}}p^{01}_{x+\frac{k}{12}} \left({\ddot{a}}_{x+\frac{k+1}{12} : \overline{n-\frac{k}{12}}|}^{(12)^{\bar{11}}} \ - \ {\ddot{a}}_{x+\frac{k+1}{12} : \overline{w}|}^{(12)^{\bar{11}}}\right) v^{\frac{k+1}{12}}$
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#272
09-27-2018, 01:31 PM
 Gettin Lucky In Kentucky Member SOA Join Date: Apr 2018 Location: Louisville Ky Studying for Specialty College: Eastern Kentucky University Graduate Posts: 32
The Infinite Actuary

What is going on with TIA's website? Looks like the domain has expired. Was planning to take a practice exam today.

Last edited by Gettin Lucky In Kentucky; 09-27-2018 at 01:31 PM.. Reason: Grammar
#273
09-27-2018, 01:59 PM
 Bama Gambler James Washer / Notes Contributor SOA Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: B'ham, AL Posts: 17,240

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Gettin Lucky In Kentucky What is going on with TIA's website? Looks like the domain has expired. Was planning to take a practice exam today.
Our web hosting company manages our domain. Somehow they missed the renewal of the domain. WTF, right? Everything was fixed this morning. If you still can’t access the site, they try clearing your cache and restart your machine.
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#274
09-27-2018, 04:35 PM
 DanielWithTheWhiteVans Join Date: Apr 2018 Posts: 5

I have an issue with the SOA Sample MC question 6.33 (question 12 of Fall 2013 MC):

I found the # of survivors after 15 years so that Loss at issue > 50000:
50000 = survivor payout - premiums = x*10000e^-(15*ln1.03) - 500*10000e^-(.02*15^2/2+15*ln1.03)
and x = 60.48, so we need 61 or more survivors

Then the normal approx. with mean = 500p = 52.699 and variance 500p(1-p) = 47.145
61 = 52.699 + z*sqrt(47.145) so z = 1.20887 and Pr(L>50000) = .1131

The solution they provide (.13) doesn't round the survivors, and I think it should.
(Note, neither solution uses continuity correction)

#275
09-27-2018, 05:48 PM
 Jim Daniel Member SOA Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: Davis, CA College: Wabash College B.A. 1962, Stanford Ph.D. 1965 Posts: 2,728

Quote:
 Originally Posted by DanielWithTheWhiteVans I have an issue with the SOA Sample MC question 6.33 (question 12 of Fall 2013 MC): I found the # of survivors after 15 years so that Loss at issue > 50000: 50000 = survivor payout - premiums = x*10000e^-(15*ln1.03) - 500*10000e^-(.02*15^2/2+15*ln1.03) and x = 60.48, so we need 61 or more survivors Then the normal approx. with mean = 500p = 52.699 and variance 500p(1-p) = 47.145 61 = 52.699 + z*sqrt(47.145) so z = 1.20887 and Pr(L>50000) = .1131 The solution they provide (.13) doesn't round the survivors, and I think it should. (Note, neither solution uses continuity correction) lmk if I'm missing something. Any advice to answer this consistently?
In problems like this, they mean for you to use the Normal approximation to L0 (as in the SoA solution), not the Normal approximation to the number of survivors.
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#276
09-28-2018, 01:48 AM
 TranceBrah Member SOA Join Date: Mar 2014 Location: Best Coast Posts: 238

Went through all of the 165 SOA questions and felt like majority of them were really straight forward. Hoping the LTAM mc won't be any different.

Time to lower my morale with lvl 7 adapt exams.
#277
09-28-2018, 10:37 AM
 SIGUS Member CAS SOA Join Date: Oct 2014 Posts: 52

Quote:
 Originally Posted by TranceBrah Went through all of the 165 SOA questions and felt like majority of them were really straight forward. Hoping the LTAM mc won't be any different. Time to lower my morale with lvl 7 adapt exams.
Same feeling here for the samples. Started ASM practice exams (first being Exam 6 based on randomly generating numbers between 1 and 13) and heck they are 110% tougher than the samples.
#278
09-28-2018, 11:27 PM
 Changda Member SOA Join Date: Jun 2016 Posts: 31

Can someone explain to me how to solve part e of written answer 2 from the MLC sample problems? I have no clue how they are finding the variance of the expected value of the present values.
(1000000v^2 - 500000v^2)^2(0.88)(0.12)
#279
09-29-2018, 09:44 AM
 TranceBrah Member SOA Join Date: Mar 2014 Location: Best Coast Posts: 238

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Changda Can someone explain to me how to solve part e of written answer 2 from the MLC sample problems? I have no clue how they are finding the variance of the expected value of the present values. (1000000v^2 - 500000v^2)^2(0.88)(0.12)
The shortcut formula for vaiance of bernoulli is (a-b)^2*p*(1-p), where the value will be either a or b.

Notice for indicator rv, a=1, b=0.
#280
09-29-2018, 11:19 AM
 Kaur Member SOA Join Date: Mar 2016 Posts: 59

is it allowed to take a stop watch/digital watch with you in the exam? T