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  #341  
Old 01-17-2020, 01:33 PM
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In the Feldblum discussion of Teng & Perkins, on page 284, he says:

"The combined effect depends on the 'swing' of the plan."

I may be missing it, but what is "swing" here?
Think itís just the width of limitations
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  #342  
Old 01-17-2020, 01:35 PM
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I'll take 100-130k in Ohio over 150k+ in California any day. I think the stress level at those jobs is a lot higher than actuarial once you get done with your exams.

Really though, I think actuarial initially attracted me since I'm kind of a lazy person and the idea that I can just pass some math exams and get paid really well was really appealing. I do find that as I get more actuarial experience I'm actually taking more interest in my work and am getting less and less lazy FWIW.
Yea I guess itís not as straight forward as saying ď the smartest people work in X field ď
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  #343  
Old 01-17-2020, 07:31 PM
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are you familiar with the interview process for Google? You seem to be trivialising the level of talent you need to pass their rigorous interviewing process. If you are curious as to what it's like, go to this website https://leetcode.com and you can read examples of the types of questions they ask in interviews. This website also provides many, many examples of programming problems that you would be expected to solve in an interview setting, and people use this website to prepare for interviews at top tech companies.

I think that in terms of pure brain power, the level of talent you need to have to get a coveted 150k starting salary software engineering job is higher than your average FCAS based on my somewhat limited exposure to what it takes to accomplish either objective.
I've had a couple Silicon Valley jobs working with $150K starting salary software engineers. Most who start at that level have at least a Masters but I definitely think the work for FCAS is more than they go through to land that $150K starting job. I also think that the brain power of the average FCAS on par with most of these software engineers. I think the variance of brain power is more for software engineers with a lot more potential to find absolute geniuses than among FCAS folks. I also think that the average FCAS is coasting in their career compared to these SV software engineers.
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  #344  
Old 01-18-2020, 12:35 AM
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Feldblum part of Teng and Perkins ,the syllabus says section 1 and 2 only, pages 274-315, but section 2 ends at 297. I'd assume to stop at this page, but why wouldn't they say pages 274-297 as well?
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Old 01-18-2020, 11:38 AM
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Feldblum part of Teng and Perkins ,the syllabus says section 1 and 2 only, pages 274-315, but section 2 ends at 297. I'd assume to stop at this page, but why wouldn't they say pages 274-297 as well?
I think you should be ok to stop after section 2. My guess is that the CAS simply wanted to republish the entire Feldblum discussion from the 1998 Proceedings for completeness and to include the references at the end. I don't think they'll test on sections 3 or 4.
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Old 01-18-2020, 12:45 PM
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About to start Brehm, not sure what's the best way to learn this material but I'll just start by reading the source material, probably the only source paper I will read from start to finish
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Old 01-18-2020, 02:28 PM
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Just finished watching all TIA videos for section A, which is 70% of the syllabus. Honestly I feel pretty good about all of it. Definitely seems easier than 8 was to understand. I still have a ton of formulas to memorize though. I'll probably try to get through section B tomorrow and section C the following week, so I should be ready to start doing some practice problems near the end of the month.
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Old 01-18-2020, 03:02 PM
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About to start Brehm, not sure what's the best way to learn this material but I'll just start by reading the source material, probably the only source paper I will read from start to finish
I read through most of it this week. I found focusing on the overall story helpful, each thing you read relates to some grand enterprise risk model they're advocating for. Valuation models fit into their framework as one of the many pieces, so that's how it relates to this exam
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  #349  
Old 01-18-2020, 03:07 PM
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Just finished watching all TIA videos for section A, which is 70% of the syllabus. Honestly I feel pretty good about all of it. Definitely seems easier than 8 was to understand. I still have a ton of formulas to memorize though. I'll probably try to get through section B tomorrow and section C the following week, so I should be ready to start doing some practice problems near the end of the month.
what do you think of Teng and Perkins? After doing exam 8 it makes a lot more sense to me than last sitting. I didn't even know what a Table M was.

I wonder if it would make sense to allow the PDLD slopes to vary based on regression and covariates related to the book being modeled.
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Old 01-18-2020, 03:35 PM
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what do you think of Teng and Perkins? After doing exam 8 it makes a lot more sense to me than last sitting. I didn't even know what a Table M was.

I wonder if it would make sense to allow the PDLD slopes to vary based on regression and covariates related to the book being modeled.
Yeah, I definitely feel like taking exam 8 first helped with my understanding of Teng and Perkins as well as Siewert.

As far as the exam goes, I think Teng and Perkins seems like one of the easier papers. Most of the questions they could likely ask about it are probably fairly formulaic and as long as you understand the idea behind the PDLD, CPDLD, premium asset, and feldblum adjustment to CPDLD1 it should be some easy points.

That said, the method doesn't seem like the most accurate to me and I imagine doing some sort of regression to get the PDLD factors could definitely improve it. I think it'd be interesting to see how Teng and Perkins' empirical method compares to actually doing the calculation at the level of each policy and rolling up the final results. Obviously this would take some work and you would need the all the info about all retro policies to be readily available.
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