Actuarial Outpost SOA Sample Q Discussions.
 User Name Remember Me? Password
 Register Blogs Wiki FAQ Calendar Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read
 FlashChat Actuarial Discussion Preliminary Exams CAS/SOA Exams Cyberchat Around the World Suggestions

 Upload your resume securely at https://www.dwsimpson.com to be contacted when new jobs meet your skills and objectives.

 Short-Term Actuarial Math Old Exam C Forum

 Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
#41
03-20-2017, 09:45 PM
 mathematicalhype Member CAS SOA Join Date: Nov 2013 Posts: 270

Soa Sample Question 11:
Losses on a company’s insurance policies follow a Pareto distribution with
probability density function: f(x/theta) = theta / (x+theta)^2.
For half of the company’s policies, theta = 1, while for the other half, theta = 3.
For a randomly selected policy, losses in Year 1 were 5.
Calculate the posterior probability that losses for this policy in Year 2 will exceed 8.

Could we have solved this using the formula for posterior density,
= (prior * likelihood) / (integral of (prior * likelihood) ) ?
The solution solves by finding
P(x2 > 8 | x1=5) using P(theta = 1 | x = 5) and P(theta = 3 | x = 5).
__________________
P FM MFE C MLC
VEEs
#42
06-22-2017, 01:07 PM
 StayCoolKD Member CAS Join Date: Sep 2014 College: Alumni University of Washington Posts: 272

very appreciate this thread!

 Thread Tools Search this Thread Search this Thread: Advanced Search Display Modes Linear Mode

 Posting Rules You may not post new threads You may not post replies You may not post attachments You may not edit your posts BB code is On Smilies are On [IMG] code is On HTML code is Off

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 10:34 AM.

 -- Default Style - Fluid Width ---- Default Style - Fixed Width ---- Old Default Style ---- Easy on the eyes ---- Smooth Darkness ---- Chestnut ---- Apple-ish Style ---- If Apples were blue ---- If Apples were green ---- If Apples were purple ---- Halloween 2007 ---- B&W ---- Halloween ---- AO Christmas Theme ---- Turkey Day Theme ---- AO 2007 beta ---- 4th Of July Contact Us - Actuarial Outpost - Archive - Privacy Statement - Top