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  #1171  
Old 02-14-2018, 10:32 AM
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I honestly don't think the cpi report will affect the market too much given it won't be too out of hand. If it ends up being higher than expected, it could help the stock market, but of course with the media and analysts exaggerating everything it will create a short term panic.

As for vix, yes I heard that it could spike near the end of its maturity but I don't touch things idk too much about.
looks like the panic lasted a whole hour. Back in the black on the day already. Am I missing some news that brought it back, or is the market just that unsettled right now?
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  #1172  
Old 02-14-2018, 10:38 AM
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looks like the panic lasted a whole hour. Back in the black on the day already. Am I missing some news that brought it back, or is the market just that unsettled right now?
There were some selloffs early on but very minimal. The market responded to the slight inflation increase much better than I expected.

I do still believe that the market stabilized. Now, there will be volatility here and there when the fed increases the interest rate.

Another thing to keep in mind is what's going on in europe, including the election in Italy.
idk how bad it will get there but I believe it won't be too bad. Kind of interesting how Ray Dalio is betting hard against europe right now.
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  #1173  
Old 02-14-2018, 11:22 AM
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There were some selloffs early on but very minimal. The market responded to the slight inflation increase much better than I expected.

I do still believe that the market stabilized. Now, there will be volatility here and there when the fed increases the interest rate.

Another thing to keep in mind is what's going on in europe, including the election in Italy.
idk how bad it will get there but I believe it won't be too bad. Kind of interesting how Ray Dalio is betting hard against europe right now.
When the fed increases rates the market usually dips, but in the long run, financials should see an overall benefit from higher interest rates. What Im trying to figure out is if the overall market decline from FED hikes will fully offset gains to the finance sector over a few years. My thought is that I should bet on financials now, let the rate hikes go through, and then, after some initial volatility, financials should see good gains over the next 5 years. (ceteris paribus)
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  #1174  
Old 02-14-2018, 11:35 AM
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Why do people sell when the market falls and buy when it's high? When "market confidence" is low I'm all like "yeah let it burn" and then don't even bother when we're super inflated like I've been saying for how long now?
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  #1175  
Old 02-14-2018, 11:51 AM
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Why do people sell when the market falls and buy when it's high? When "market confidence" is low I'm all like "yeah let it burn" and then don't even bother when we're super inflated like I've been saying for how long now?
as a young personal investor with a few pennies, there are few reasons to sell (special tax cases or liquidity needs), but typically its just buy and hold.

I can see a fund manager feeling the pressure to cut losses when he has 500M on the line.
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  #1176  
Old 02-14-2018, 12:02 PM
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Yeah. My "selling" is more or less reallocation always with some cash on the sideline (and maybe too much, in reality). Like, my taxable has $30k parked in cash and I can't think of any series of incidents that would lend me to immediately need $30k.
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  #1177  
Old 02-14-2018, 12:21 PM
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Why do people sell when the market falls and buy when it's high? When "market confidence" is low I'm all like "yeah let it burn" and then don't even bother when we're super inflated like I've been saying for how long now?
Because not everyone enter and exit at the same time.
The market consists of traders at different experience level and with different amount in their funds. Large market movers with margin calls affect trading decisions.

Also, with all these frequency trading on top of different types of traders, we see markets moving in what seems like "irrational" directions.
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  #1178  
Old 02-14-2018, 03:04 PM
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Man, what a day.
Tomorrow should have some dips.
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  #1179  
Old 02-14-2018, 04:05 PM
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Man, what a day.
Tomorrow should have some dips.
given the pre-market inflation buzz, that was quite a day indeed.
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  #1180  
Old 02-14-2018, 04:31 PM
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given the pre-market inflation buzz, that was quite a day indeed.
Inverse VIX gained more than 10%.
Not sure where it's at right now but man, i made some gainzz on that.
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