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View Poll Results: Will self driving autos kill car insurance?
Of course 42 16.94%
Maybe but not for a long time 177 71.37%
I'm a luddite... 29 11.69%
Voters: 248. You may not vote on this poll

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  #2051  
Old 06-06-2018, 04:24 PM
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Sredni Vashtar Sredni Vashtar is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by snakeroberts View Post
I am betting on GM
GM is saying they want to mass-produce a steering-wheel-less car next year. That would be sweet, but who knows if it will actually happen. They only have 100k training miles. They are nowhere near AV, though they are pushing hard right now.

Google, on the other hand, has 7 millions of miles of testing, and just ordered 62k minivans and 20k jags. I doubt they're gonna resell those cars or hire 82k safety drivers. It's time for them to go big.

FWIW, I'm still rooting for tesla-- though their progress has been awful. I want my auto-model 3!
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Last edited by Sredni Vashtar; 06-07-2018 at 12:24 PM..
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  #2052  
Old 06-07-2018, 01:48 PM
snakeroberts snakeroberts is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sredni Vashtar View Post
GM is saying they want to mass-produce a steering-wheel-less car next year. That would be sweet, but who knows if it will actually happen. They only have 100k training miles. They are nowhere near AV, though they are pushing hard right now.

Google, on the other hand, has 7 millions of miles of testing, and just ordered 62k minivans and 20k jags. I doubt they're gonna resell those cars or hire 82k safety drivers. It's time for them to go big.

FWIW, I'm still rooting for tesla-- though their progress has been awful. I want my auto-model 3!
GM has the best 3rd party mapping and chip companies working with/for them.
GM has tested in harder environments, and those numbers will get closer, plus they can actually build cars. I would not bet against Waymo nor Tesla but I think GM has an edge.
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  #2053  
Old 06-07-2018, 04:59 PM
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I will take the "over" on GM mass-producing a steering-wheel-less car in 2019.

Let's define "mass produce" as meaning that at least 5,000 units have rolled off the assembly line by midnight on 12/31/2019. Reasonable?

ETA: I should add the additional caveat that these cars have to actually be reasonably safe to operate on regular roads. I mean, if GM makes them but they don't work... that doesn't count.
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Last edited by twig93; 06-11-2018 at 10:05 AM..
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  #2054  
Old 06-08-2018, 10:10 AM
examsarehard examsarehard is offline
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The NTSB release a preliminary report on the Tesla crash in California:

https://www.ntsb.gov/investigations/...reliminary.pdf

Quote:
  • The Autopilot system was engaged on four separate occasions during the 32-minute trip, including a continuous operation for the last 18 minutes 55 seconds prior to the crash.
  • During the 18-minute 55-second segment, the vehicle provided two visual alerts and one auditory alert for the driver to place his hands on the steering wheel. These alerts were made more than 15 minutes prior to the crash.
  • During the 60 seconds prior to the crash, the driverís hands were detected on the steering wheel on three separate occasions, for a total of 34 seconds; for the last 6 seconds prior to the crash, the vehicle did not detect the driverís hands on the steering wheel.
  • At 8 seconds prior to the crash, the Tesla was following a lead vehicle and was traveling about 65 mph.
  • At 7 seconds prior to the crash, the Tesla began a left steering movement while following a lead vehicle.
  • At 4 seconds prior to the crash, the Tesla was no longer following a lead vehicle.
  • At 3 seconds prior to the crash and up to the time of impact with the crash attenuator, the Teslaís speed increased from 62 to 70.8 mph, with no precrash braking or evasive steering movement detected.
The driver wasn't paying attention, and it's not clear why the Tesla drifted off lane, but once the car entered the offramp divider, it accelerated into the wall.
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  #2055  
Old 06-08-2018, 11:07 AM
CuriousGeorge CuriousGeorge is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by examsarehard View Post
The NTSB release a preliminary report on the Tesla crash in California:

https://www.ntsb.gov/investigations/...reliminary.pdf



The driver wasn't paying attention, and it's not clear why the Tesla drifted off lane, but once the car entered the offramp divider, it accelerated into the wall.
It's pretty clear why. The actual lane lines are extremely faded there, and there are temporary lines (no longer valid) that are clearly painted. The Tesla got mixed up on which one to follow.

And once it was steering out of the proper lane of traffic, it no longer had a car going 65 in front of it, so it accelerated toward the speed that the driver had set on the cruise control.

Poorly marked lines and stationary items getting filtered from the obstacle assessment are real issues that need to be solved before we can use this technology without having to still pay attention to the road. But why the events caused the accident are pretty well-known.
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  #2056  
Old 06-11-2018, 09:23 AM
examsarehard examsarehard is offline
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Thanks. That information wasn't in the preliminary report, but it was easy to dig around for other information related to the crash. It seems that the sensors installed on the Tesla are incapable of dealing with stationary objects on the highway, which is why other solutions resort to LIDAR.
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  #2057  
Old 06-11-2018, 10:04 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CuriousGeorge View Post
It's pretty clear why. The actual lane lines are extremely faded there, and there are temporary lines (no longer valid) that are clearly painted. The Tesla got mixed up on which one to follow.

And once it was steering out of the proper lane of traffic, it no longer had a car going 65 in front of it, so it accelerated toward the speed that the driver had set on the cruise control.

Poorly marked lines and stationary items getting filtered from the obstacle assessment are real issues that need to be solved before we can use this technology without having to still pay attention to the road. But why the events caused the accident are pretty well-known.
Wow. Thanks for the additional information and yeah... I'm feeling pretty good about all of my "over" bets.
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  #2058  
Old 06-11-2018, 10:29 AM
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Originally Posted by twig93 View Post
my "over" bets.
Of the 3, Tesla has the longest odds. They have the cheapest hardware and have not spent a lot of resources on testing.

What they have going for themselves is that *if* they are successful, say next year or the year after, then they could instantly have a million autonomous cars on the road.

My "under" bets have been on Google, which hasn't been in the news as much, since they aren't getting into lethal accidents.
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Sredni Vashtar went forth,
His thoughts were red thoughts and his teeth were white.
His enemies called for peace, but he brought them death.
Sredni Vashtar the Beautiful.

Last edited by Sredni Vashtar; 06-11-2018 at 10:56 AM..
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