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  #141  
Old 06-14-2018, 10:26 AM
ohmymath ohmymath is offline
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I wonder what this means... are there really that many defective questions that they're taking so long to release the exam?

Honestly, I thought this exam was hard but I didn't think a lot of the questions were defective.
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  #142  
Old 06-14-2018, 11:25 AM
apban486 apban486 is offline
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yeah, i'm kinda curious what this means too. I didn't think they were any defective questions. Maybe there were multiple ways a question could have been interpreted? but i would think a lot of actuaries would be reviewing the exam before its finalize...who knows.

I honestly wouldn't be surprised if they're lagging just because it's not a priority to post the exam.
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  #143  
Old 06-14-2018, 11:27 AM
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My guess is that they found at least one defective question and after last year are really trying to do their best to minimize the chances that they have to update ANYTHING on the answer key after they release the exam. In light of all the thrown out questions last year (very embarrassing from the JBEA's perspective), this is where we are this year.

Does anyone know how many questions were deemed defective after the initial release of the exam last year on 6/7/2017 and when they released the final answer key (I am guessing this took place in July just before results were released)? I would guess that any changes were from public comments received after the initial release.
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  #144  
Old 06-14-2018, 01:25 PM
Woopsadaisy Woopsadaisy is offline
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There was only one additional revision last year - all of the rest were included on the initial answer key - that in itself is weird to me, but also when there is stuff that makes it onto the exam that is not even on the syllabus, that seems like the process is broken. I don't think that happened this time(b/c that is just gross!), however, whenever they try to get too cute for their own good by asking questions that have never been asked before or not in a long time(e.g. 2018 Floor Offset Questions & 2018 Excise Tax on Steriods), that can lead to problems b/c the IRC is complicated!, which is also why there are always 1-2 more that are found by the Actuarial Rap Stars (DFarbs & RickG) even after the initial key is released- (and yes I believe those are copyrighted rap star names). There has to be a better way.

PS - Updated Special Vegas Odds will be out later today after the exam is NOT RELEASED.

Last edited by Woopsadaisy; 06-14-2018 at 02:35 PM..
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  #145  
Old 06-14-2018, 04:10 PM
Woopsadaisy Woopsadaisy is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Woopsadaisy View Post
Updated Special Vegas Odds:

Release date Over/Under: Sunday, June 17
# of Drops Over/Under: 3
# of Multi-Answers: 2
Updated Special Vegas Odds

Release Date O/U: Wednesday, June 20
# drops O/U: 3
# M.A. O/U: 2.5
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  #146  
Old 06-14-2018, 04:39 PM
Actuary507 Actuary507 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Woopsadaisy View Post
Updated Special Vegas Odds

Release Date O/U: Wednesday, June 20
# drops O/U: 3
# M.A. O/U: 2.5
Later than June 20th
Under 3 drops
Over 2.5 M.A.
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  #147  
Old 06-14-2018, 05:19 PM
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I'm going with:

Under (although I could see this being a push with the release on 6/20)
Under 3 drops
Under 2.5 multiple answers

For the record, I think the excise tax question is a lock to be thrown out and not be a candidate for multiple answers since there are two things wrong with the question (loan terms not properly defined & it wasn't clear what they were asking for (subject to major interpretation of what is meant by "2018 excise tax")).
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  #148  
Old 06-14-2018, 05:58 PM
Woopsadaisy Woopsadaisy is offline
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Interesting. There may be some speculation built into the Special Vegas Odds, but here are some facts/incites/questions:
1) This is the latest release of the EA-2(L) original answer key ever.
2) I think that may hold up even if we include EA-2(B), I mean maybe they should induce labor on this Answer Key.
3) The answer key has been in the hands of the JB for awhile.
4) Even Mark D. @ the SOA appears to be getting the run-around - this makes no sense to me, I mean, he is not even a candidate, so why haze him?
5) So, I am going "Over" on all of the Special Vegas Odds.

Last edited by Woopsadaisy; 06-14-2018 at 06:03 PM..
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  #149  
Old 06-14-2018, 06:11 PM
NameTBD NameTBD is offline
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A real shame that it hasn't been released yet...

I'm going with Over(Later)/Under/Under.
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  #150  
Old 06-15-2018, 11:25 AM
Woopsadaisy Woopsadaisy is offline
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Not only is it not coming out today. It is not coming out early next week and, in addition, the next brave soul who asks will get the response, "We expect to have it posted by the end of the week(meaning a week from today)" - anyway, that is what the arbitrarily enhanced algorithm is spitting out.
In any event, if it is not posted by 4:00, I don't think it will get posted, b/c the gubment don't work after 4:00 PM EST.

Good news though, if it's not posted, then the first installment of CANDIDATE CONSPIRACY THEORIES may be out soon.

Last edited by Woopsadaisy; 06-15-2018 at 02:26 PM..
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