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  #241  
Old 06-13-2018, 10:08 PM
Actuarycat Actuarycat is offline
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Do you guys think the SOA will increase the level of difficulty to maintain pass rate?
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  #242  
Old 06-13-2018, 10:59 PM
hec-actu-tombe hec-actu-tombe is offline
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Thank you for your answers! I just hope it'll be clear on the real exam haha
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  #243  
Old 06-13-2018, 11:37 PM
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Do you guys think the SOA will increase the level of difficulty to maintain pass rate?
Doubt it. Is it still instant results?
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  #244  
Old 06-14-2018, 01:38 AM
james2actuary james2actuary is online now
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Yes, instant.
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  #245  
Old 06-14-2018, 01:39 AM
james2actuary james2actuary is online now
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Generally, how many exams are enough to judge your EL? 10?
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  #246  
Old 06-14-2018, 10:00 AM
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why would SOA increase difficulty to maintain the pass rate? i mean, what makes you think the pass rate will rise this sitting?
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  #247  
Old 06-14-2018, 11:03 AM
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Gonna have the 2nd Art's motion on this one.
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  #248  
Old 06-14-2018, 12:19 PM
actuary28 actuary28 is offline
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Hi guys,

Really hoping someone can clear this up for me.

When we are working with Bayesian credibility and the continuous prior, how do we know the limit of the likelihood? For example,

The size of claims for each insured follows a single parameter Pareto distribution with parameters aplha=2 and theta. The prior density of theta is the improper prior 1/theta where theta > 0.

For a randomly selected insured, you observe 1 claim of size 200.

Determine the expected size of the next claim for this insured.

In this example, my study manual says that theta is less than or equal to 200 otherwise the likelihood of a claim of 200 is zero. How do I know that? How will I be able to determine that on the test?

Please help. I have been trying to figure it out but can't seem to get it. Thanks!
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  #249  
Old 06-14-2018, 02:00 PM
supersupern0t supersupern0t is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by actuary28 View Post
Hi guys,

Really hoping someone can clear this up for me.

When we are working with Bayesian credibility and the continuous prior, how do we know the limit of the likelihood? For example,

The size of claims for each insured follows a single parameter Pareto distribution with parameters aplha=2 and theta. The prior density of theta is the improper prior 1/theta where theta > 0.

For a randomly selected insured, you observe 1 claim of size 200.

Determine the expected size of the next claim for this insured.

In this example, my study manual says that theta is less than or equal to 200 otherwise the likelihood of a claim of 200 is zero. How do I know that? How will I be able to determine that on the test?

Please help. I have been trying to figure it out but can't seem to get it. Thanks!
I could be wrong but im pretty sure for single para pareto, the loss value has to be greater than theta. It even says so on the density formula for it on A.5.1.4
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  #250  
Old 06-14-2018, 02:02 PM
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It's a single parameter Pareto which has a range of Theta -> infinity. This is different from the Pareto distribution we normally use and it's on the exam C tables.
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