Actuarial Outpost SOA #21
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 Short-Term Actuarial Math Old Exam C Forum

#1
05-31-2018, 07:19 PM
 RockOn Member SOA Join Date: Dec 2013 Studying for Exam C Favorite beer: Polygamy Porter Posts: 83
SOA #21

Hello,

Can someone tell me the following:
1. Can this problem be worked using Negative Binomial as the distribution?

Thank you!
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Last edited by RockOn; 05-31-2018 at 07:28 PM..
#2
05-31-2018, 08:33 PM
 Marcie Member CAS Join Date: Feb 2015 Posts: 9,444

Yes?

Whether it can be worked correctly is another question, and one I'm not equipped to answer since I don't know what the problem is.
#3
05-31-2018, 09:16 PM
 Jim Daniel Member SOA Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: Davis, CA College: Wabash College B.A. 1962, Stanford Ph.D. 1965 Posts: 2,688

Quote:
 Originally Posted by RockOn Hello, Can someone tell me the following: 1. Can this problem be worked using Negative Binomial as the distribution? Thank you!
Not really. If you use the Buhlmann formulas, the Negative Binomial doesn't arise.

Since Bayes produces the same answer for this problem, you can do it by Bayes. If you insist on using the predictive distribution to get the Bayes estimate---which is easily avoided---then that is Negative Binomial. So you _can_ involve the Negative Binomial, but it isn't at all necessary.
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#4
06-12-2018, 02:44 PM
 RockOn Member SOA Join Date: Dec 2013 Studying for Exam C Favorite beer: Polygamy Porter Posts: 83

Prof. Daniel,
Thank you! I think this is beginning to make sense.
__________________
EXAMS: P | FM | MFE | MLC | STAM | PA |
VEE: ECON | STATS | CORP FINANCE |
FAP: MOD 1| MOD 2| MOD 3| MOD 4| MOD 5| IA| MOD 6| MOD 7| MOD 8| FA |