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Old 06-02-2018, 05:24 AM
JuniorASA JuniorASA is offline
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Default High Age Mortality Rates Proxy

Hi all, Currently, I have a standard mortality rates up to age 100. If I would like to extend the mortality rates from age 100 to say age 110, is there any standard actuarial extrapolation approach I could use to serve for this purpose? Thanks,
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Old 06-02-2018, 08:29 AM
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Carol Marler
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My answer to a different thread:
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Originally Posted by JMO View Post
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5696798/

You can find lots more by putting "high age mortality" (without quote marks) into Google.
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Old 06-02-2018, 03:45 PM
Kalium Kalium is offline
 
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What do you need it for? The above will give you some pointers on population mortality, but if it is for a pension plan or annuitant portfolio you might want something lighter.

You could look at the mortality tables on the SOA website, and find one that "fits" your existing (<100) data, and take the higher ages from there. The more recent annuitant tables generally go to 110.
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Old 06-03-2018, 06:15 AM
JuniorASA JuniorASA is offline
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Thanks, That's the good reference point. But I need to extend it to age 130 for pricing purpose and see if there is any reference or extrapolation approach to move it forward. Thanks
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Old 06-03-2018, 10:31 AM
Kalium Kalium is offline
 
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You don't need to go to 130. The oldest person in the world, ever, died at 122. And assuming you are issuing policies at a much younger age, the chances of them surviving to above say 110 are so small that it shouldn't make any difference to your pricing. Even if you are factoring in improvements.

If your pricing system requires rates input up to age 130, then setting everything over 110 to something like 0.4 (qx) should be sufficient. (You can try different rates to check that it makes no difference to pricing).
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