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  #201  
Old 03-23-2017, 05:59 PM
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Kind of how my dad went.

Of course, he was 38.
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  #202  
Old 03-23-2017, 07:58 PM
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Kind of how my dad went.

Of course, he was 38.
Sorry to raise unfortunate memories. I was trying to be humorous, not, well, what happened.
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  #203  
Old 03-23-2017, 08:54 PM
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Sorry to raise unfortunate memories. I was trying to be humorous, not, well, what happened.
Oh, it was a long time ago, and I use it for joking purposes as well.

So my paternal grandpa died in 1989, my dad died in 1990, and my Aunt Mary Pat died in 1991. Somebody in 1992 asked me which deaths were the worst - the ones we saw coming for years (my Aunt Pat), or the sudden ones, like my dad and grandpa.

I said they all pretty much suck.
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  #204  
Old 03-23-2017, 09:27 PM
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I think we're still in the dark ages in terms of understanding not only mental health in general but also the psychological side effects of modern civilization, much of which people are poorly evolved to deal with. One of many examples is the hyper-exposure to a constant stream of highly negatively biased information through social media, etc.

I can totally believe we will see different, and possibly adverse, mortality trends caused by the increasing isolation and negativity fostered by the digital world. That's not to simplify this to "suicide rates will go up." I've seen more articles lately about how isolation, especially, can dramatically increase the risk for all kinds of morbidity.
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Last edited by E; 03-23-2017 at 09:31 PM..
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  #205  
Old 03-24-2017, 06:16 PM
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From NPR:

http://www.npr.org/sections/health-s...ths-of-despair




Death rates of non-Hispanic whites, age 45-54 -- darker = higher death rates

2000:


2014:



FWIW, one of the likely reasons for lower Hispanic mortality is lower smoking rates (I was looking into this recently)




Here's the paper:
https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content...casedeaton.pdf





https://www.brookings.edu/bpea-artic...-21st-century/



and more:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...r-a-generation

http://www.economist.com/news/financ...-rise-economic

https://www.theatlantic.com/business...espair/520473/
...and I forgot to put in the Brookings own news-ish post:

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/brook...ntent=48909925

and here are a few more graphs:






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  #206  
Old 03-24-2017, 06:31 PM
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Hmmm. 1% at 50 is really high.
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Old 03-25-2017, 03:44 PM
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In a follow-up to their groundbreaking 2015 work, they say that a lack of steady, well-paying jobs for whites without college degrees has caused pain, distress and social dysfunction to build up over time. The mortality rate for that group, ages 45 to 54, increased by a half-percent each year from 1999 to 2013.

But whites with college degrees haven't suffered the same lack of economic opportunity, and haven't seen the same loss of life expectancy. The study was published Thursday in Brookings Papers on Economic Activity.
Perhaps there has been no mortality increase by any segment after all, but these rates are simply the effect of moving people from one category to another. Here's a possible explanation:
  • 20+ years ago, the most highly skilled non-college-educated whites attained better jobs and had lower mortality rates than lower-skilled non-college-educated whites.
  • Fast-forward to today, that segment of the population is now college educated.
Perhaps mortality experience hasn't been that different, just educational levels and classification in the study.
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  #208  
Old 03-25-2017, 03:56 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wally View Post
Perhaps there has been no mortality increase by any segment after all, but these rates are simply the effect of moving people from one category to another. Here's a possible explanation:
  • 20+ years ago, the most highly skilled non-college-educated whites attained better jobs and had lower mortality rates than lower-skilled non-college-educated whites.
  • Fast-forward to today, that segment of the population is now college educated.
Perhaps mortality experience hasn't been that different, just educational levels and classification in the study.
When I first heard of this, I pointed out that my grandparents, of a similar "class" as me, only had high school educations. My paternal grandma did eventually get a college degree -- but she got her bachelors in her mid-40s, and a masters in her 60s.

The people left in the "high school only" category are much smaller than several generations ago.

But let's check!



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Educat..._United_States



others:
https://www.census.gov/topics/educat...ttainment.html

https://www.census.gov/content/dam/C...mo/p20-578.pdf
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Old 03-29-2017, 03:16 PM
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UNITED KINGDOM

http://www.professionalpensions.com/...ditors_Updates

Quote:
Mortality improvements in the noughties may have been the blip

Higher health and social care spending between 2000 and 2010 may have caused a blip in longevity estimates by accelerating improvements, according to Barnett Waddingham.
The recent slowdown in estimates may be simply due to lower spending in this sector following the financial crisis, the consultancy added. As a result, current predictions may actually be returning to a normal pathway.

The suggestion comes as the Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) published its latest tables on longevity assumptions, which revised down life expectancy assumptions from its 2015 models.

For a male turning 65 on 1 January this year, the estimated life expectancy was 22.2 years, down from 22.5 years in last year's tables. For women, this fell from 24.6 years to 24.1 years.

Speaking at the consultancy's trustee conference on 28 March, associate Jon Palin pointed to higher health spending during the Labour governments as a possible reason for the high improvements.

"Why did we see such exceptionally high improvements from 2000 to 2010?" he said. "Perhaps these are the strange improvements. One possible explanation is when you look at health spending.

"Since 2009, we have seen flat spending on health and we have seen lower mortality improvements. We could never prove how strong that link is [but] it seems to me that this is more than coincidental.

....
Life expectancy for members turning 65 on 1 Jan 2017
Version of the CMI model Male Female
CMI_2013 22.8 years 25.1 years
CMI_2014 22.8 years 24.9 years
CMI_2015 22.5 years 24.6 years
CMII_2016 22.2 years 24.1 years


......
"We have seen a slowdown in most countries around the world," he continued. "Probably, through the course of the next year as we get more data from 2016 from other countries, we can say much more firmly the experience in this country has been similar."

Palin's comments somewhat support the wider industry recognition that the lower mortality improvements in recent years cannot be considered as a blip.

Willis Towers Watson senior consultant Stephen Caine agreed other factors may be at play here.

"It appears that mortality rates improved modestly in 2016, but only after worsening significantly in 2015, leaving mortality rates roughly where they were in 2011," he said. "Another year of heavy mortality strengthens the case that the stall in improvements is not just a blip but could be due to longer team factors.
....
Aon Hewitt head of longevity Tim Gordon said pension schemes may find it more difficult to hedge longevity risk.

"It is increasingly difficult to argue that the fall-off in national mortality improvements since 2011 is simply a blip," he said. "With changing or incomplete data, there remains a risk that schemes considering hedging their longevity risk may end up with poor pricing, or make a decision based on out-of-date information.


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Old 03-30-2017, 01:04 PM
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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/2...tains-pension/

Quote:
Flu jab blunder brought unexpected benefits for Britain’s pension black hole

he flu jab blunder which contributed to the largest spike in deaths in a generation may have brought unexpected benefits for Britain’s pension black hole, a new report suggests.

Latest projections from the The Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA) show that the increase in the mortality rate in 2016 has slightly reduced overall life expectancy for the over 65s, down 1.3 per cent for men, and 2 per cent for women.

According to Mercer, the world’s largest human resources consulting firm, the shift has removed around 28 billion of pension scheme liabilities from the balance sheets of FTSE350 companies.

Last year figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) found there were 16,415 excess deaths in the 2015/2016 winter, the largest percentage increase since 196, with flu blamed for the large increase.

The extra deaths were fuelled by the flu jab being mismatched for the main strain of influenza, which unexpectedly mutated, meaning it worked for just one in three adults, compared to the 50 per cent it usually protects.

The number of deaths in England and Wales was so high that it lowered life expectancy for girls born this year by two months to 79.3, and boys by three months to 82.9, the first fall in two decades.

This winter flu season also started earlier than usual, which meant 2016 was bookended by a surge of excess deaths, which has led to IFoA reviewing its Continuous Mortality Investigation model, which is used by most pension providers to estimate member's life expectancy and adjust benefit schemes.

“There’s some debate about exactly why this has happened,” said Glyn Bradley, Principal in Mercer’s Innovation, Policy and Research team.

“Some point to the strain in the UK’s health and care system, caught between an ageing population and budget cuts. On the other hand, this winter’s excess mortality in the UK isn’t noticeably worse than for our European neighbours.
.....
Between 2000 and 2011 mortality rates improved quite quickly, but have largely plateaued since.

“In broad terms, mortality is roughly where it was in 2011,” explained Bradley. “Quite reasonably, given the dataset, the CMI’s 2016 model produces lower rates of mortality improvements than previously, particularly over the next decade.

“However, that’s quite short-term when it comes to pensions planning. The long-term drivers of future improvements in life expectancy remain.


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