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  #41  
Old 07-20-2017, 11:47 AM
Latitude30 Latitude30 is offline
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Originally Posted by Klaymen View Post
wut
What I'm trying to get people to do is to change how they measure investment performance.

In a nutshell, measure over time how much you can buy of any number of items or stocks or things today vs 5 years ago using your investment portfolio. Spend more time looking at this performance measurement and less time looking at your $ return on investment. Pretend the dollar itself is just another investment option that can do good or bad.

With that mindset, most of you have been outperformed over the last year by emerging market gains. If you pretend EEM is the new default currency, then all non-EEM investments are in bear trend and you need to sell some of them for EEM (aka buy more emerging market)

Last edited by Latitude30; 07-20-2017 at 11:53 AM..
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  #42  
Old 07-20-2017, 12:00 PM
Latitude30 Latitude30 is offline
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One other investment tip I discovered is for volatile small cap stocks and fund composites, (the second derivative of the graph of the fund relative to the S&P500) is a good measurement of when's a good time to throw money into the fund. When this measurement is above a certain threshold.

This is more a short-term/intermediate term strategy as you can observe this happening sometimes after a stock price is beaten down so badly that it starts unnoticeably bouncing back up. Deploying the strategy could get you to catch the price rebound.
But it also works for longer term bounces such as V-bottoms, Fib retracements, failed break-downs, etc

The rate of acceleration of the outperformance of a volatile fund relative to the S&P500, indicates a signal that the fund is going on offense either now or not too long from now. The outperformance of the fund generally lingers after the acceleration of its outperformance, and persists well into the de-acceleration of the fund's outperformance.

Last edited by Latitude30; 07-20-2017 at 12:10 PM..
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  #43  
Old 07-20-2017, 12:59 PM
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Klaymen Klaymen is offline
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Originally Posted by Latitude30 View Post
If you pretend EEM is the new default currency, then all non-EEM investments are in bear trend and you need to sell some of them for EEM (aka buy more emerging market)
I have an actual currency called US dollars which I use to buy everything (except for the occasional Europe trip). I don't need to play make-believe that I need some other currency.
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  #44  
Old 07-20-2017, 01:42 PM
Latitude30 Latitude30 is offline
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I have an actual currency called US dollars which I use to buy everything (except for the occasional Europe trip). I don't need to play make-believe that I need some other currency.
Fine but don't come crying to me one day when the dollar devalues rapidly and unexpectedly when all of the developing nations say

"we are finally growing fast enough economically now to design our own stuff and sell to the world and cease working for Apple and Samsung. AS we now control our business operations, we can triple our wages to factory workers, raise our prices, and face no competition from US factories ...they have none except ours"

Then watch the US dollar devaluation. If we had the production capabilities here at home, do you think with no motivation at all we would let some country like Japan come in and say

"you will be using this factory in Cleveland to make this for Japan and you will only get paid this much and you better do it to enrich Japan and if you are too greedy we will bully you by threatening to leave eventhough we can't REALLY replace you. And if you're too generous and work too hard for us for too little, we will accuse you of taking away Japanese jobs."

We would say heck no...Cleveland factories are OUR people and they work for America and you can go back to halfway around the world, good luck finding better cheaper supply.

And someone in Japan would say "this is pretty good I doubled the number of Yen in my portfolio.

Last edited by Latitude30; 07-20-2017 at 01:54 PM..
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  #45  
Old 07-20-2017, 02:40 PM
A Student A Student is offline
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Originally Posted by Klaymen View Post
Klaymen's portfolio
19.1% Non-US ETF (VEU)
18.6% Nasdaq (QQQ)
17.7% S&P 500 (VOO or SPY)
9.3% Dividend ETF (VYM)
7.8% Individially picked stocks (SQ, AMZN, V, MA, MAIN, SHOP, LTC, BABA, BRK-B each between 0.5-1.5% of total portfolio)
7.6% Insurance ETF (KIE)
4.8% Aerospace/Defense ETF (ITA)
3.9% Bond ETF (IEF)
3.0% REIT ETF (VNQ)
1.1% Emerging ETF (VWO)
7.1% Cash to invest, any suggestions?
For income, amlp is a mlp etf heavy in energy and pipelines. Its beaten down because of oil, but should be good long-term. Plus, with the etf version, you don't get stuck sched k lp stuff on taxes.
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  #46  
Old 07-20-2017, 02:42 PM
Ninja Warrior Ninja Warrior is offline
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I still think BUY ON DIP remains the simplest way to make money in this market.

We are in firm bull market and it is RISKY to cash 100% out as the market may continue to rally and not offering good entry points for months.

If you are not 100% sure, leave 50% in the market and have 50% left to buy on dip. Indexes dipping back to 50 or 100 day moving averages are good entry points.
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  #47  
Old 07-20-2017, 03:00 PM
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Klaymen Klaymen is offline
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Klaymen's portfolio
24.0% Non-US ETF (VEU)
18.6% Nasdaq (QQQ)
17.7% S&P 500 (VOO or SPY)
9.3% Dividend ETF (VYM)
7.8% Individially picked stocks (SQ, AMZN, V, MA, MAIN, SHOP, LTC, BABA, BRK-B each between 0.5-1.5% of total portfolio)
7.6% Insurance ETF (KIE)
4.8% Aerospace/Defense ETF (ITA)
4.6% REIT ETF (VNQ)
3.9% Bond ETF (IEF)
1.1% Emerging ETF (VWO)
0.6% Cash to invest
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Trust in the Lord and do good; dwell in the land and enjoy safe pasture. Take delight in the Lord, and he will give you the desires of your heart. Commit your way to the Lord; trust in him and he will do this: He will make your righteous reward shine like the dawn, your vindication like the noonday sun. (Psalm 37:3-6)
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  #48  
Old 07-20-2017, 04:49 PM
Latitude30 Latitude30 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Klaymen View Post
Klaymen's portfolio
24.0% Non-US ETF (VEU)
18.6% Nasdaq (QQQ)
17.7% S&P 500 (VOO or SPY)
9.3% Dividend ETF (VYM)
7.8% Individially picked stocks (SQ, AMZN, V, MA, MAIN, SHOP, LTC, BABA, BRK-B each between 0.5-1.5% of total portfolio)
7.6% Insurance ETF (KIE)
4.8% Aerospace/Defense ETF (ITA)
4.6% REIT ETF (VNQ)
3.9% Bond ETF (IEF)
1.1% Emerging ETF (VWO)
0.6% Cash to invest
Still too much Domestic exposure in my honest opinion. There is more growth potential outside the US. How else do you explain full employment with 1% stagnant US GDP?
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  #49  
Old 07-20-2017, 05:27 PM
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exponentialpi exponentialpi is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Klaymen View Post
.
Picture won't link. Chart at the top is telling.

http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/
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  #50  
Old 07-20-2017, 05:47 PM
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Fish Actuary Fish Actuary is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Klaymen View Post
Klaymen's portfolio
19.1% Non-US ETF (VEU)
18.6% Nasdaq (QQQ)
17.7% S&P 500 (VOO or SPY)
9.3% Dividend ETF (VYM)
7.8% Individially picked stocks (SQ, AMZN, V, MA, MAIN, SHOP, LTC, BABA, BRK-B each between 0.5-1.5% of total portfolio)
7.6% Insurance ETF (KIE)
4.8% Aerospace/Defense ETF (ITA)
3.9% Bond ETF (IEF)
3.0% REIT ETF (VNQ)
1.1% Emerging ETF (VWO)
7.1% Cash to invest, any suggestions?
South32 I owned it as S32 I think in the U.S. is trades as SOUHY... It is a mining company that was spun out of BHP and basically contains everything that wasn't a core mining business of BHP. They have little or no debt and have mines primarily in Australia and South Africa.
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