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  #21  
Old 01-24-2018, 01:10 PM
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ronaldy27 ronaldy27 is offline
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Also, the "only 10% of those who passed P ended up being an FSA" could be explained by the fact that people just lose interest in taking more exams to have a more active social life outside of work rather than "quitting" because they failed it too much.
Maybe, a good portion of the people who passed P ended up going into consulting where exams are less valued OR they ended up working in banking, tech, etc.
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  #22  
Old 01-24-2018, 01:42 PM
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one caveat of focusing purely on travel years is that, it eliminates all people who give up before they get through all the prelims / obtain ASA from the pool.

this artificially reduces the perceived difficulty of these exams.

I know someone who has been stuck on his last prelim for over 3 years now...
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  #23  
Old 01-24-2018, 01:49 PM
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Originally Posted by Pension.Mathematics View Post
one caveat of focusing purely on travel years is that, it eliminates all people who give up before they get through all the prelims / obtain ASA from the pool.

this artificially reduces the perceived difficulty of these exams.

I know someone who has been stuck on his last prelim for over 3 years now...
Travel time statistic is based on conditional probability. You do know what that is, right?
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Old 01-24-2018, 01:54 PM
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I'm pretty sure the SOA actually communicated this stat during the FAC that I attended. If I remember correctly, they indicated that only 8% of the people who ever sit for an actuarial exam make it all the way through to Fellowship.

You can count me as one of the people that found that to be a very interesting stat.
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  #25  
Old 01-24-2018, 01:55 PM
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You could take # new fellows in a year and divide by test takers and get a fair approximation. Might need to go back in time on the test takers part to account for growth in interest in the actuarial field.

And need to adjust for those shifty Canadians who become FSA without ever taking exam 1.
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  #26  
Old 01-24-2018, 02:02 PM
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Originally Posted by ssop19 View Post
I'm pretty sure the SOA actually communicated this stat during the FAC that I attended. If I remember correctly, they indicated that only 8% of the people who ever sit for an actuarial exam make it all the way through to Fellowship.

You can count me as one of the people that found that to be a very interesting stat.
Was that 8% to FSA? Or did they also count as "success" those who became FCAS?

And I would be far more interested in what time frame they looked at than in the number they came up with..
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  #27  
Old 01-24-2018, 02:30 PM
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Travel time statistic is based on conditional probability. You do know what that is, right?
Do you think everyone researching the field understands that concept? Do you not recognize the value of using both of these statistics together? Especially for someone who doesn't understand conditional probability or may be able to solve a conditional probability problem in a classroom setting but doesn't necessarily recognize it in a real-world environment because they are 20 years old?
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  #28  
Old 01-24-2018, 03:02 PM
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Travel time statistic is based on conditional probability. You do know what that is, right?
i didn't know that it was based on conditional probability.

so the median of FSA travel time is the median of all people who wrote at least 1 exam, not median of all existing FSAs?
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  #29  
Old 01-24-2018, 03:07 PM
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i didn't know that it was based on conditional probability.

so the median of FSA travel time is the median of all people who wrote at least 1 exam, not median of all existing FSAs?
Isn't it conditioned on having attained the designation i.e. Pr(Travel Time < 5 | FSA)?
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  #30  
Old 01-24-2018, 04:56 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pension.Mathematics View Post
i didn't know that it was based on conditional probability.

so the median of FSA travel time is the median of all people who wrote at least 1 exam, not median of all existing FSAs?
It is the latter. So it is only the travel time for those who actually travelled the whole distance. If it included everybody who took at least one exam, it would NOT be conditional probability. In other words, what Kenny said:
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Isn't it conditioned on having attained the designation i.e. Pr(Travel Time < 5 | FSA)?
Including everyone who took at least one exam creates another problem. How much additional time should be allowed for each exam that the person falls short of the goal? CAS actuaries typically have to deal with this type of question all the time, I think, because of what they call "open" claims. Life insurance and pensions not so much, health insurance (as I understand it) kind of in between.
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My latest favorite quotes, updated Apr 5, 2018.

Spoiler:
I should keep these four permanently.
Quote:
Originally Posted by rekrap View Post
JMO is right
Quote:
Originally Posted by campbell View Post
I agree with JMO.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Westley View Post
And def agree w/ JMO.
Quote:
Originally Posted by MG View Post
This. And everything else JMO wrote.
And this all purpose permanent quote:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr T Non-Fan View Post
Yup, it is always someone else's fault.
MORE:
All purpose response for careers forum:
Quote:
Originally Posted by DoctorNo View Post
Depends upon the employer and the situation.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sredni Vashtar View Post
I feel like ERM is 90% buzzwords, and that the underlying agenda is to make sure at least one of your Corporate Officers is not dumb.
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