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  #2971  
Old Yesterday, 12:13 PM
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Based on current polls I feel bullish on Biden and therefore bearish on the market. Yes, the 2016 polls were misleading in a few swing states. Yes, there will be fun surprises between now and the election. He still has to reveal his VP pick and there will be any number of debate blunders on both sides. But assuming no major missteps, when does the market decide to price him in and where is the Biden bottom?
If he actually followed through on his oil fracking ban, oil would surge to $130+ which would send the economy into a nose dive. So I don't think he'll really do that, just something else that sounds good and does little, like stop a pipe line.
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  #2972  
Old Yesterday, 01:05 PM
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Originally Posted by flandango View Post
Based on current polls I feel bullish on Biden and therefore bearish on the market. Yes, the 2016 polls were misleading in a few swing states. Yes, there will be fun surprises between now and the election. He still has to reveal his VP pick and there will be any number of debate blunders on both sides. But assuming no major missteps, when does the market decide to price him in and where is the Biden bottom?
I dont think markets care about the current state of the race yet so long as its still close. Id say around early oct when all the polls show biden by a mile the markets will start to get antsy and we see a sell off. Im trying to time my strategies to account for this. I want my current positions to end in sept, or accept that I am effectively betting on election results.

If the market is giving Biden good odds, I could see taking a value bet on trump. Buy calls day before election. Its win win- If trump loses, great, if he wins, crap, but at least I get paid.
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  #2973  
Old Yesterday, 01:19 PM
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I dont think markets care about the current state of the race yet so long as its still close. Id say around early oct when all the polls show biden by a mile the markets will start to get antsy and we see a sell off. Im trying to time my strategies to account for this. I want my current positions to end in sept, or accept that I am effectively betting on election results.

If the market is giving Biden good odds, I could see taking a value bet on trump. Buy calls day before election. Its win win- If trump loses, great, if he wins, crap, but at least I get paid.
You bet against your favorite football team too?
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  #2974  
Old Yesterday, 01:57 PM
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You bet against your favorite football team too?
more like betting on the pats in the SB, even though you hate them, but the book gave them good odds. After your favorite team finished the regular season 4-12.
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  #2975  
Old Yesterday, 02:29 PM
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https://www.federalreserve.gov/monet...centtrends.htm

My guess is the fed will continue to prop up the markets through the election.
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  #2976  
Old Yesterday, 05:18 PM
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https://www.federalreserve.gov/monet...centtrends.htm

My guess is the fed will continue to prop up the markets through the election.


As for Biden, do we have any reason to believe his policies would be bad for the economy, or for the stock market specifically? I mean, obviously he's not going to dump a huge tax cut on corporations like Trump did, but I don't see a lot of anti-business policies, or even claims that he's going to undo the Trump cuts.
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  #2977  
Old Yesterday, 06:00 PM
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As for Biden, do we have any reason to believe his policies would be bad for the economy, or for the stock market specifically? I mean, obviously he's not going to dump a huge tax cut on corporations like Trump did, but I don't see a lot of anti-business policies, or even claims that he's going to undo the Trump cuts.
https://taxfoundation.org/joe-biden-tax-plan-2020/

Not really undo the Trump cuts, but definitely rollback some of them. Corp tax rate up to 28%, so that alone scares the market. Nothing in there that is particularly eyebrow raising though.
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  #2978  
Old Today, 10:24 AM
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nasdaq is up +20% YTD
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  #2979  
Old Today, 11:16 AM
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nasdaq is up +20% YTD
Based mostly on the top 5 companies. Not a good sign.
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  #2980  
Old Today, 11:34 AM
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Originally Posted by sticks1839 View Post
https://taxfoundation.org/joe-biden-tax-plan-2020/

Not really undo the Trump cuts, but definitely rollback some of them. Corp tax rate up to 28%, so that alone scares the market. Nothing in there that is particularly eyebrow raising though.
This is what I was vaguely referring to, but the market doesn't seem too scared right now. But what do I know, maybe the market really is pricing in Biden&Co's chances and otherwise the market would be up 10% more on the year.
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