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  #151  
Old 01-19-2016, 01:51 PM
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Originally Posted by glassy View Post
Higher in the high-rise = higher income = ....?
Just a guess. And I'm not even sure what replaces the ....
I'm thinking younger people are more likely to be in the high rises, and their instances of cardiac arrest may be more severe (congenital defects mainly? Those often just pop up in 30s / 40s) so have a lower survival probability. Could be making that up, but in large cities I'd say old people are more likely to be in houses, young people in the upper floors of apartment blocks.
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  #152  
Old 01-19-2016, 02:59 PM
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All else aside, they're only looking at 8,000 cases and the "best case" group had a 4.2% survival rate. Which means there were at most 335 survivals which they're measuring (and it wouldn't actually be that high). Now parse it up into different groupings. The "highest floor" grouping only had 30 exposures, so the survival rate was going to be 0%, 3%, or 6% with 0,1,2 survivors.

All else is not equal, though. The story even notes that "More than 40 per cent of homeowners over the age of 65 live in multi-story condos or apartment buildings." Which means there's a decent chance the entire story boils down to "old people more likely to die in cardiac arrest events."
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  #153  
Old 01-19-2016, 03:08 PM
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So, low credibility, and nothing to worry about?
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  #154  
Old 01-19-2016, 03:30 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by glassy View Post
Higher in the high-rise = higher income = ....?
Just a guess. And I'm not even sure what replaces the ....
Quote:
Originally Posted by glassy View Post
Maybe higher stress
Higher income may also correlate with being older..........
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  #155  
Old 01-19-2016, 03:31 PM
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Originally Posted by urysohn View Post
All else aside, they're only looking at 8,000 cases and the "best case" group had a 4.2% survival rate. Which means there were at most 335 survivals which they're measuring (and it wouldn't actually be that high). Now parse it up into different groupings. The "highest floor" grouping only had 30 exposures, so the survival rate was going to be 0%, 3%, or 6% with 0,1,2 survivors.

All else is not equal, though. The story even notes that "More than 40 per cent of homeowners over the age of 65 live in multi-story condos or apartment buildings." Which means there's a decent chance the entire story boils down to "old people more likely to die in cardiac arrest events."
Ha. Ninja'd me.
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My latest favorite quotes, updated Apr 5, 2018.

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And def agree w/ JMO.
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Originally Posted by MG View Post
This. And everything else JMO wrote.
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Yup, it is always someone else's fault.
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Depends upon the employer and the situation.
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I feel like ERM is 90% buzzwords, and that the underlying agenda is to make sure at least one of your Corporate Officers is not dumb.
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  #156  
Old 01-19-2016, 05:00 PM
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Originally Posted by 1695814 View Post
even though the article was corrected, the web link still says "heart-attacks"
I stand corrected: they do mean cardiac arrests, not heart attacks.
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  #157  
Old 01-19-2016, 08:09 PM
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Originally Posted by campbell View Post
Not really news. Just a visualization.

http://flowingdata.com/2016/01/05/causes-of-death/
Another one: How you will die

http://flowingdata.com/2016/01/19/how-you-will-die/
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  #158  
Old 01-26-2016, 04:52 PM
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http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/21/he...ve-longer.html

Quote:
WASHINGTON — Move over, millennials. The centenarians are coming.

The number of Americans age 100 and older — those born during Woodrow Wilson’s administration and earlier — is up by 44 percent since 2000, federal health officials reported Thursday.

There were 72,197 of them in 2014, up from 50,281 in 2000, according to the report by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. In 1980, they numbered about 15,000.

Even demographers seemed impressed. “There is certainly a wow factor here, that there are this many people in the United States over 100 years old,” said William H. Frey, the senior demographer at the Brookings Institution. “Not so long ago in our society, this was somewhat rare.”

Not only are there more centenarians, but they are living even longer. Death rates declined for all demographic groups of centenarians — white, black, Hispanic, female, male — in the six years ending in 2014, the report said.
.....
Centenarians are an elite group. Most people born in 1900 did not live past 50. But chances of survival to such ripe ages have improved with the rise of vaccines and antibiotics, and improvements in hygiene, medical treatments and technology. There are exceptions: The explosion of opioid overdose deaths in recent years has erased progress for some groups, particularly young and middle-age whites.

....
Even for centenarians, life spans are growing longer. Death rates for centenarian women dropped 14 percent in the six years ending in 2014, to 36.5 per 100 women, and by 20 percent to 33.2 per 100 men.

Among racial and ethnic groups, Hispanic centenarians had the lowest death rate, 22.3 per 100 people, compared with 39.3 per 100 whites and 28.6 per 100 blacks.

Death rates from Alzheimer’s disease increased the most over the period of the report, up 119 percent from 2000 to 2014. Death rates from hypertension also jumped 88 percent over the period. Death rates for influenza and pneumonia fell by 48 percent, for stroke by 31 percent and for heart disease by 24 percent. Even so, heart disease remained the leading cause of death for centenarians in 2014.



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Research Studies–Proposal Requests

Mortality Analysis Of 1900 Birth Cohort
BACKGROUND and PURPOSE
Estimating advanced age mortality is enigmatic, due primarily to lack of reliable data above age 100. The birth year 1900 cohort for the US presents a unique opportunity to analyze the mortality of this cohort at advanced ages with a high level of confidence in the results. Advanced ages can be easily verified as this cohort was too young to qualify for Medicare when it was first introduced, so proof of age was required when they qualified in the following year. Deaths from this cohort and subsequent cohorts at ages 65 and up should be available in governmental records such as the SSA Death Master File.

As advanced age mortality rates for insurer and industry tables are often taken directly from analysis of US population data, better understanding the mortality of this birth cohort could help actuaries and others refine current estimates and projections for high age mortality rates.

RESEARCH OBJECTIVE
The Reinsurance Section and the Committee on Life Insurance Research are seeking a researcher(s) to perform a mortality analysis of the US 1900 birth cohort. Using data sources such as the SSA Death Master File, the International Database on Longevity, the National Death Index, and relevant commercial or other data sources and information, the researcher(s) at a minimum will estimate the force of mortality by month of age for ages 85 and up, separately by gender, for the birth year 1900 cohort for the US.

The results will be summarized into a report to be made publicly available on the SOA's website. The researcher should also comment on the reliability of the data and describe tests used to validate the data. The project description and expected deliverable(s) have been intentionally written to be brief to give researcher(s) sufficient latitude in the development of the proposals. While the researcher(s) is required to perform the stated minimum analysis, researcher(s) may propose to perform additional analyses. Among the additional areas for analysis are examining the mortality of the US 1900 birth cohort by cause of death, socioeconomic status, and/or geography. Broadening the birth cohort to include the early 1900's would also be valuable.

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  #159  
Old 01-26-2016, 05:01 PM
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I'm just curious why the millennials need to "move over" because of the higher number of centenarians. Is it because the centenarians are driving 50 mph in the fast lane & the millennials have places to go & people to see so the millennials need to move over to the right lane in order to pass them?
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  #160  
Old 01-26-2016, 05:06 PM
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I think it's just a contrast in words that have number-related roots: 100s vs 1000s.
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