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Old 02-07-2018, 12:31 PM
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Default FA CDEF task 4

Are the blue print cells in the Model tab assumptions which we can sensitivity test?
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Old 02-07-2018, 02:01 PM
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Yes, keeping in mind that not all assumptions may need to be tested.
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Old 02-07-2018, 04:30 PM
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I am trying to simulate unemployment rate under Model Tab.
The official definition regarding employment:
Total labor force = employed population + unemployed populaton
Unemployment rate = unemployed/(total labor force)

The unemployed population would be "New Unemployed claimants" in Model Tab. But what in the Model tab will equal the employed population?

How would I play around the Model Tab so I can simulate unemployment rate? I hope I am making sense here....
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Old 02-07-2018, 04:41 PM
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I think I got it...

Assuming 640,000 as the total labor force, I can tweak either the newly hired or unemployment claimant number such that the row 21 will eventually give me the unemployment rate I want
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Old 02-07-2018, 04:42 PM
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unless I'm missing something, this sounds like a simple manipulation in Excel. set a cell as Unemployment Rate (pretend that's cell A1), and set the Year 1 unemployed claimants to be the beginning population times cell A1. Then, for year 2, set the unemployed claimants to the Year 1 ending value times $A$1 and drag that formula over.

Unless you're trying to get cute and assume mid-year timing for new hires, but I think that's outside the scope of what's expected here.
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Old 02-07-2018, 11:39 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by davesned29 View Post
unless I'm missing something, this sounds like a simple manipulation in Excel. set a cell as Unemployment Rate (pretend that's cell A1), and set the Year 1 unemployed claimants to be the beginning population times cell A1. Then, for year 2, set the unemployed claimants to the Year 1 ending value times $A$1 and drag that formula over.

Unless you're trying to get cute and assume mid-year timing for new hires, but I think that's outside the scope of what's expected here.
Thanks Dave.

I thought about that same method before. But the problem is you will have a workforce decreasing year after year. This doesn't make sense to me because how can the college student body size increasing as the work force is decreasing at a fixed percentage everything?
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Old 02-08-2018, 01:41 AM
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Default FA CDEF Task 4 interrelated assumptions

The question said "discuss assumptions included in the model that are interrelated"

I am concerned about the word "included in the assumptions". Does that mean we have to only find interrelation between the assumptions that are already on the original model, and we can't write about interrelation between the currently excluded assumptions?
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Old 02-20-2018, 10:23 PM
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For the sensitivity tests, do we use different stress margins for different assumptions or use the same for all assumptions? If using different margins, like +/-20%, +/-30%, how to adjust the value is appropriate..?
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Old 02-22-2018, 01:01 AM
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Hope you are all doing good. This is my first post to any topic on actuarial outpost. I want to know what are the chances for FA to change for a retaker? When I attempted first time, I was given FA regarding Black Box Air (BBA). Now I am planning to retake in march. Can you confirm whether the same BBA is in place or some new thing has replaced it?
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Old 05-24-2018, 04:25 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nemo93 View Post
For the sensitivity tests, do we use different stress margins for different assumptions or use the same for all assumptions? If using different margins, like +/-20%, +/-30%, how to adjust the value is appropriate..?
I think both approaches can be justified. What have you done finally? A single shock?
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