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  #431  
Old 06-17-2019, 02:01 PM
LunchBox LunchBox is offline
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If it's because they are lowing price so much, wouldn't that suggest a larger, not smaller loss than prior Q?
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  #432  
Old 06-17-2019, 03:39 PM
lulzEMH lulzEMH is offline
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If it's because they are lowing price so much, wouldn't that suggest a larger, not smaller loss than prior Q?
Well were there any one time charges in Q1 for inventory/model S lease guarantees? Is Q1 or Q2 usually worse seasonally? Was there any pull forward in demand from Q4 2018 that made Q1 2019 a bit worse than average? Is there a similar (although much smaller) pull forward in Q2 from the upcoming tax rebate cut? Were there any delivery issues with the first mass push of model 3's into europe where some of the deliveries/sales actually fall into Q2?

Q2 was mostly just model X and S price cuts. Pricing for the model 3 has actually been more robust in May/June than I expected to be perfectly honest.

Sales in Q3 and Q4 will be down YoY unless Tesla has some large price cuts on the model 3.
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  #433  
Old 06-17-2019, 04:44 PM
LunchBox LunchBox is offline
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this will be back over 300 in no time. The tesla bankruptcy folks are talking much more reservedly and short interest is huge.
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  #434  
Old 06-17-2019, 09:21 PM
lulzEMH lulzEMH is offline
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this will be back over 300 in no time. The tesla bankruptcy folks are talking much more reservedly and short interest is huge.
So you are long this thing? Non Elon insiders that keep dumping shares suggest otherwise. Are you more or less confident then when you suggested that the market was too bearish on Tesla before Q1 earnings (around 275) and then tried to proclaim you were right when it was only down like 5% on earnings on its way to dropping another 30%?

Last edited by lulzEMH; 06-17-2019 at 09:30 PM..
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  #435  
Old 06-17-2019, 10:08 PM
LunchBox LunchBox is offline
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I'm all index funds, I just think it's a fun story to follow.

Most of it's sell off correlated highly with the market, it's a volatile stock so of course it's down more than the market. When the market turned back up it rallied back up again, more than the market again.
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  #436  
Old 06-18-2019, 01:41 PM
lulzEMH lulzEMH is offline
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I'm all index funds, I just think it's a fun story to follow.

Most of it's sell off correlated highly with the market, it's a volatile stock so of course it's down more than the market. When the market turned back up it rallied back up again, more than the market again.
Well over the past 6 months its had a pretty sharp downturn that the market hasn't maintained. High beta sure, agree as well that tesla took off with the market bottom as well.

It's probably a decent sign for me that you think 300 is likely. Growing hope among bulls of a potential profit surprise also seems to be bubbling up. Given the sales mix (so little S&X even at depressed prices and SR+ dominating) a repeat of the small profit from Q4 seems impossible even if the matched the volumes.
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  #437  
Old 06-18-2019, 03:57 PM
LunchBox LunchBox is offline
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Don't take anything I say as a sign, I wouldn't say I'm a bull.
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  #438  
Old 06-21-2019, 09:31 AM
MathGeek92 MathGeek92 is offline
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yesterdays news... but a decent read

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/20/reut...-concerns.html
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  #439  
Old 06-21-2019, 09:48 AM
LunchBox LunchBox is offline
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It still looks like they are going to meet Q2 guidance based on a couple minutes on twitter.
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  #440  
Old 06-21-2019, 12:35 PM
lulzEMH lulzEMH is offline
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yesterdays news... but a decent read

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/20/reut...-concerns.html
Yeah, the golman view on Q2 and the 2nd half is consistent with mine.

Tesla will be a lot closer to the 90k target than I expected 2 months ago due to canada rebate loophole but its like 75% SR+ which probably have margins around 10% and low ASP.

Already reports from TeslaQ factory checkers and Business insiders that their production rate has dropped the past few weeks.
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