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  #151  
Old 04-14-2019, 02:56 PM
Seasplash Seasplash is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Milton Friedman View Post
I seem to very rarely come across any problems under the mortality improvement category, specifically: age and cohort-based spline, and the CBD models.

Is it even worth trying to memorize and do practice problems for these?
I would because they didn't really come up on the 1st sitting of LTAM. One of the WA questions was a question just on the Lee-Carter model. It wouldn't surprise me one bit if they have WA questions on the CBD model and cubic splines next time.
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  #152  
Old 04-14-2019, 05:28 PM
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Originally Posted by Seasplash View Post
I would because they didn't really come up on the 1st sitting of LTAM. One of the WA questions was a question just on the Lee-Carter model. It wouldn't surprise me one bit if they have WA questions on the CBD model and cubic splines next time.
CBD and Lee-Carter models are better and easier than Universal Life WA questions. No big trick in problem reading. Glad they moved Universal Life to FAP.
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  #153  
Old 04-16-2019, 12:28 AM
SweepingRocks SweepingRocks is offline
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Is there a place to see the answers for the Fall 2018 LTAM exam?
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  #154  
Old 04-16-2019, 12:34 AM
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Is there a place to see the answers for the Fall 2018 LTAM exam?
https://www.soa.org/Education/Exam-R...oice-exam.aspx

That page has links to lots of past exams and solutions, including Fall 2018 LTAM
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  #155  
Old 04-16-2019, 10:26 AM
AlBuloushi AlBuloushi is offline
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Any idea what range would be the passing score on LTAM? 60-65 possibly?
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  #156  
Old 04-16-2019, 08:25 PM
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I have a tough time with pension questions...not really with getting the right or wrong, they just take FOREVER. Anyone else have this issue and find a way to be faster? For the written answer is it worth it to write out what I would do to solve and not actually solve it?
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  #157  
Old 04-16-2019, 10:43 PM
SweepingRocks SweepingRocks is offline
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How's everybody doing? Just went through SOA 237 these past days and got 40 wrong. Gonna try and hammer down the concepts those were on in the final days. (Specifically Lee Carter and the independent double decrements (Possibly calling that by the wrong name))



Quote:
Originally Posted by magicjello View Post
I have a tough time with pension questions...not really with getting the right or wrong, they just take FOREVER. Anyone else have this issue and find a way to be faster? For the written answer is it worth it to write out what I would do to solve and not actually solve it?
What part of pension questions aren't you getting? I can usually solve those relatively quickly, depending on the question. Is it calculating the benefit amount? Working with the standard service model?
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  #158  
Old 04-17-2019, 07:37 AM
magicjello magicjello is offline
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That's where I'm having trouble; I understand the questions and can do them, just takes a long time. Written answer ones, specifically.

I've run into a few from past exams that are just beasts...mid-year exits, having to calculate the accrued liability given that someone could retire at age 64.5 or 65; requiring me to use UDD to calculate lives at ages 64.5 in order to get probabilities, needing to use woolhouse or UDD to find monthly annuity values...then having to calculate the normal cost, so needing to calculate the accrued liability again for the next year. Nothing hard exactly, but tedious and so time consuming.

I'm not sure what I can do aside from keep practicing and hoping to get quicker.
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  #159  
Old 04-17-2019, 11:08 AM
Outsanity Outsanity is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by magicjello View Post
That's where I'm having trouble; I understand the questions and can do them, just takes a long time. Written answer ones, specifically.

I've run into a few from past exams that are just beasts...mid-year exits, having to calculate the accrued liability given that someone could retire at age 64.5 or 65; requiring me to use UDD to calculate lives at ages 64.5 in order to get probabilities, needing to use woolhouse or UDD to find monthly annuity values...then having to calculate the normal cost, so needing to calculate the accrued liability again for the next year. Nothing hard exactly, but tedious and so time consuming.

I'm not sure what I can do aside from keep practicing and hoping to get quicker.
I feel you.

My only question is, is it feasible to apply "shortcuts" for Normal Cost for PUC and TUC? I believe the premise is, if there are no mid-year exits for valuation year t and valuation year + 1, then you can use:
x=years of service by valuation year t
PUC: Normal Cost = 1/x * Accrued Liability at t
TUC: Normal Cost = (((x+1)/x * salary at valuation+1 / salary at valuation) - 1) * Accrued Liability at t

which saves you from calculating the accrued liability at time t+1 but I am not sure if SOA accepts these formulas?

That said, what do people think will likely be tested in Spring 2019 WA?
My guesses:
-something pension related (either with PUC&TUC accrual or unique payouts/accrual)
-general question that tests understanding of insurance/life/annuity benefits
-reserving (probably with FPT and then either Thieles/Euler or unique reserve pattern)
-Either Lee Carter/CDB or spline/improvements or KM/NA (I see a KM/NA in sample, but it's not tested...yet?)
-???
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  #160  
Old 04-17-2019, 11:55 AM
bigmac bigmac is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Outsanity View Post
I feel you.

My only question is, is it feasible to apply "shortcuts" for Normal Cost for PUC and TUC? I believe the premise is, if there are no mid-year exits for valuation year t and valuation year + 1, then you can use:
x=years of service by valuation year t
PUC: Normal Cost = 1/x * Accrued Liability at t
TUC: Normal Cost = (((x+1)/x * salary at valuation+1 / salary at valuation) - 1) * Accrued Liability at t

which saves you from calculating the accrued liability at time t+1 but I am not sure if SOA accepts these formulas?

That said, what do people think will likely be tested in Spring 2019 WA?
My guesses:
-something pension related (either with PUC&TUC accrual or unique payouts/accrual)
-general question that tests understanding of insurance/life/annuity benefits
-reserving (probably with FPT and then either Thieles/Euler or unique reserve pattern)
-Either Lee Carter/CDB or spline/improvements or KM/NA (I see a KM/NA in sample, but it's not tested...yet?)
-???
I also think there will be something on markov chains.. maybe related to the ones mentioned in the study note
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