Actuarial Outpost
 
Go Back   Actuarial Outpost > Actuarial Discussion Forum > Health - Disability
FlashChat Actuarial Discussion Preliminary Exams CAS/SOA Exams Cyberchat Around the World Suggestions


Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #31  
Old 07-12-2017, 05:36 PM
campbell's Avatar
campbell campbell is offline
Mary Pat Campbell
SOA AAA
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: NY
Studying for duolingo and coursera
Favorite beer: Murphy's Irish Stout
Posts: 77,704
Blog Entries: 6
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by lookingon1 View Post
What was the issue about social security? Sorry I'm not aware of this, would love to learn what happened. Would appreciate brief summary please...
Obviously this is not a brief summary, but read the first two items in this thread:
http://www.actuarialoutpost.com/actu...d.php?t=228740

[and then read the rest of the thread... that's 6 years old and I'm just about to add more posts to]
__________________
It's STUMP

LinkedIn Profile
Reply With Quote
  #32  
Old 07-12-2017, 06:30 PM
Stephen Camilli's Avatar
Stephen Camilli Stephen Camilli is offline
Member
SOA
 
Join Date: Oct 2013
Location: Winsted, CT
College: Brown University Alumni
Favorite beer: Two-Hearted Ale
Posts: 78
Default

I think it is a bit different than social security and public pensions, in that the solution to those issues requires some kind of sacrifice, i.e. greater contributions, higher retirement age, lower benefit, etc. With the opioid crisis, there is currently a dearth of treatment centers and options. If analysis showed that investment in treatment options resulted in a greater decrease in costs to medicare/medicaid (a likely scenario based on most data, but without specific hard evidence to back up), a stronger political argument could be made for investment in treatment.

Similar economic analysis about the public costs of homeless people led to some states and cities offering free housing to high-risk individuals. See
http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2014/09/22/home-free for one example. I can't recall where the original study about this came up, but it seems a similar economic argument could be made for certain solutions or remedies here. It is true that it seems like no-one is listening to us; however, delays, frustrations, etc., are the nature of trying to implement solutions that require political actions - they don't always follow a logical train of thought. Nevertheless, I still think that it is worthwhile, and that actuaries could do a lot to translate the desire to do something into specific action suggestions, with price tags and expected benefits attached to each action.
__________________
Stephen Camilli, FSA
ACTEX Learning
www.actexmadriver.com
Learn Today, Lead Tomorrow
Reply With Quote
  #33  
Old 07-13-2017, 07:04 PM
FormLetter's Avatar
FormLetter FormLetter is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 48,425
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by JMO View Post
Seems like too little to late. It the patient has already acted badly, why wouldn't they just rip open all the cells to get the dose they want??
Depends whether they want to deal with withdrawals or not. There is a reason they give a taper prescription.
__________________
Come join the AO Rap Battle Tournament 2013:
http://www.actuarialoutpost.com/actu...33#post7082433
Reply With Quote
  #34  
Old 07-14-2017, 08:59 AM
JMO's Avatar
JMO JMO is offline
Carol Marler
Non-Actuary
 
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Back home again in Indiana
Studying for Nothing actuarial.
Posts: 35,945
Default

http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/ame...ts-say-n782721
Senate Health Care Bill No Fix for Opioid Epidemic, Experts Say
__________________
Carol Marler, "Just My Opinion"

Pluto is no longer a planet and I am no longer an actuary. Please take my opinions as non-actuarial.


My latest favorite quotes, updated July 21, 2017.

Spoiler:
I should keep these four permanently.
Quote:
Originally Posted by rekrap View Post
JMO is right
Quote:
Originally Posted by campbell View Post
I agree with JMO.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Westley View Post
And def agree w/ JMO.
Quote:
Originally Posted by MG View Post
This. And everything else JMO wrote.
MORE:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Locrian View Post
I'm disappointed I don't get to do both.
Quote:
Originally Posted by PeppermintPatty View Post
It's SO much better to work for a good manager.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Patience View Post
slow down
Quote:
Originally Posted by whisper View Post
It is really easy to judge from an ill-informed, outside view.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Colonel Smoothie View Post
The ones who complain that they're too good for that kind of work really aren't that good.
Two really useful all-purpose responses. Use one or both:
Quote:
Originally Posted by JasonScandopolous View Post
To which I say: duh and lol.
Reply With Quote
  #35  
Old 07-14-2017, 03:35 PM
lookingon1 lookingon1 is offline
Member
SOA
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
College: bj
Posts: 489
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by JMO View Post
http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/ame...ts-say-n782721
Senate Health Care Bill No Fix for Opioid Epidemic, Experts Say
I think that's a given. They have much bigger problems with that bill...beside the opioid crisis. They need to figure out the basics still...
Reply With Quote
  #36  
Old 07-14-2017, 05:16 PM
Fish Actuary's Avatar
Fish Actuary Fish Actuary is online now
Member
Non-Actuary
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Australia
Posts: 9,491
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by lookingon1 View Post
Done?? Nothing is done, the problems are persisting. There is lots more room for analysis. Actuaries have so many opportunities to step in and solve these problems, before the others do.

The last real work by a health actuary, as far as I can see, was Bluhm's stuff---which was in the 1980's NOTHING has come since (which is still important analysis). The disease management was all blown air and didn't amount to anything. And the rest was conjectures about the ACA and our health system. But no real solutions.

I am saying we need someone to tackle the problems we have and devout actuarial talent on that. This OP's call is so important which is why I was shocked and amazed to see this today.
I kind of get the impression you're being a bit naive about the research that is being done on predicting/managing opioid addiction. Here's a link to all the research in Google Scholar that's been published since 2013 and pops up when you search for the "predicting opioid abuse" <though the quotes weren't included when I did this search>
Reply With Quote
  #37  
Old 07-14-2017, 08:11 PM
FormLetter's Avatar
FormLetter FormLetter is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 48,425
Default

Predicting opioid use, some variable's I'd expect:
1) current prescription to an opiate/opioid
2) prior addiction to opiates/opioids
3) close proximity to other people use them
4) having prescribing privileges
5) having relationships with those under 4)
__________________
Come join the AO Rap Battle Tournament 2013:
http://www.actuarialoutpost.com/actu...33#post7082433
Reply With Quote
  #38  
Old 07-17-2017, 11:51 PM
lookingon1 lookingon1 is offline
Member
SOA
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
College: bj
Posts: 489
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by FormLetter View Post
Predicting opioid use, some variable's I'd expect:
1) current prescription to an opiate/opioid
2) prior addiction to opiates/opioids
3) close proximity to other people use them
4) having prescribing privileges
5) having relationships with those under 4)
good start
Reply With Quote
  #39  
Old 07-17-2017, 11:56 PM
lookingon1 lookingon1 is offline
Member
SOA
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
College: bj
Posts: 489
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Fish Actuary View Post
I kind of get the impression you're being a bit naive about the research that is being done on predicting/managing opioid addiction. Here's a link to all the research in Google Scholar that's been published since 2013 and pops up when you search for the "predicting opioid abuse" <though the quotes weren't included when I did this search>
it's not me you have to show off and flex your muscles to, there are real problems and you have to find solutions or no one will notice you. So you should figure out a way to do it and if google search is what you think is going to help then start doing it. As you can see lots of poeple have already started doing work on this. Maybe follow example of formletter and find more variables to build on.
Reply With Quote
  #40  
Old 07-18-2017, 02:33 PM
E. Blackadder's Avatar
E. Blackadder E. Blackadder is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Not far from US 1.
Favorite beer: Beer?! Blech. But Dad likes Dortmunder Union.
Posts: 17,036
Blog Entries: 1
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Stephen Camilli View Post
Based on this article, it seems that we, as a profession could do more to contribute to the solution of [the opiod] crisis, working together with appropriate groups and individuals, perhaps through building models to identify high-risk individuals, high-risk prescribers, identify effective alternative treatments, etc.
Why don't we start with actuaries solving the pension underfunding crisis? Do that, and then we can discuss other crises.
__________________
EB's rules for AO political: 1. A responder who replies "who cares?", cares deeply. 1a. a responder who replies LMAO, or similar, agrees with me. 2. A responder who questions my sources doesn't have any. 3. A responder who calls me creepy is a closet pervert. 4. A responder who brings up pizzagate eats Domino's. 5. Few people like bad police. 6. Few people like civil asset forfeiture, as if property can commit a crime.

Quote:
Originally Posted by nonlnear
People with ideas worth hearing aren't afraid to be heard brianstorming at less than 100% pure genius.
Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 12:52 PM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
*PLEASE NOTE: Posts are not checked for accuracy, and do not
represent the views of the Actuarial Outpost or its sponsors.
Page generated in 0.18136 seconds with 11 queries