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  #1  
Old 07-17-2017, 11:30 AM
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Default Pulled out of the market

For the most part, on Friday, selling off a good deal of what was in my taxable account (now that it's long-term).

I'm mostly cash. Paid off my car note ($20k @ 4%). No debt. Main market exposure is my current company 401k (like 15% of net worth).

Also in HDV (high-div fund) and FAGIX (Fidelity corporate bond fund) inside a Roth, another 15% or so combined.

I know it's silly but both the equity and housing markets seem overvalued af right now. If you believe things like Case-Schiller et al.

What are some alternatives?
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Old 07-17-2017, 12:23 PM
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http://mebfaber.com/timing-model/

The prices for US stocks, international stocks, REITs, and bonds are above their 200-day moving average, which is bullish. The only category that is struggling is commodities, although REITs and bonds have been wishy washy lately.

Right now i am about:

74% US stocks
18% International
3% REITs
3% Bonds
2% Cash (what can I say, I have a checking account)
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Old 07-17-2017, 12:59 PM
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I was in a REIT for like a year and saw very little return while stocks went up 10%+. That was annoying. Then I saw one of the top holdings was a company that owns malls. Cool. With the housing market appreciation you'd think commercial would be up there (malls aside, talking residential).
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Old 07-17-2017, 01:04 PM
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How will you decide when to go back in?
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Old 07-17-2017, 01:17 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mathmajor View Post

I know it's silly but both the equity and housing markets seem overvalued af right now. If you believe things like Case-Schiller et al.

What are some alternatives?
"Silly" is right. There is no reason at all to be out of the market. You will always see articles and talking heads that call the market overvalued. Those articles generate page views. But you risk much more by being out of the market.
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Old 07-17-2017, 01:55 PM
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Guns/Ammo.
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  #7  
Old 07-17-2017, 03:00 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by snikelfritz View Post
How will you decide when to go back in?
Some kind of correction. I made a shiny penny (well, a few percent) going full-hog near the Brexit bottom after being partially cash.

And again, I've got US equity exposure in the 401k and high-div holdings. But I'd like to explore things like investment grade debt, commodity, etc. Something a little less aggressive.
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Old 07-17-2017, 04:21 PM
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Munis?

Lending Club?
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Old 07-17-2017, 05:12 PM
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I've looked into Lending Club. My problem is that a lot of this money is taxable. The tax-advantaged munis are an idea.
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Old 07-17-2017, 05:45 PM
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i'm very confident i'll take a paper beating at the next steep decline. i'll also do well on paper at the next run-up. i'm a buy and hold sucker.
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