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  #51  
Old 08-24-2018, 01:36 PM
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Problem I'm seeing is that entry level programs are growing rapidly.... not uncommon to see companies hiring ~30 actuarial students each year. The future of insurance isn't THAT impressive... compared to tech. Health might be universal in 15 years, life/retirement facing fiduciary problems, and certain lines of P&C being at risk of AI.

Sure, people make the argument that as some LOB's disappear, other LOB's grow. I just don't see any LOB fully replacing the personal auto lines, which most can agree will be on a decreasing trend in the next 10-20 years.
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  #52  
Old 08-24-2018, 01:44 PM
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Health might be universal in 15 years, life/retirement facing fiduciary problems, and certain lines of P&C being at risk of AI.
I don't know anything about Life and PC. But I agree with Health and certainly Pensions.
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  #53  
Old 08-24-2018, 01:49 PM
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Sure, people make the argument that as some LOB's disappear, other LOB's grow. I just don't see any LOB fully replacing the personal auto lines, which most can agree will be on a decreasing trend in the next 10-20 years.
BTW, how do you see self driving cars affecting the auto insurance business? If we only have self driving cars on the road in 20-30 years, wouldn't every car on the road have the same amount of risk? and therefore the actuarial models become much simpler, diminishing the role of actuaries?
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  #54  
Old 08-24-2018, 01:55 PM
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BTW, how do you see self driving cars affecting the auto insurance business? If we only have self driving cars on the road in 20-30 years, wouldn't every car on the road have the same amount of risk? and therefore the actuarial models become much simpler, diminishing the role of actuaries?
risk moves from buyer to manufacturer... very low frequency and lower premiums (overall less money in the LOB).

yup... actuaries might play a smaller role in that LOB.
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  #55  
Old 08-24-2018, 03:10 PM
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BTW, how do you see self driving cars affecting the auto insurance business? If we only have self driving cars on the road in 20-30 years, wouldn't every car on the road have the same amount of risk? and therefore the actuarial models become much simpler, diminishing the role of actuaries?
It's likely that new types of insurance will emerge around the new industies that will emerge due to self driving cars.
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  #56  
Old 08-24-2018, 04:49 PM
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Originally Posted by Double_Zero_Six View Post
BTW, how do you see self driving cars affecting the auto insurance business? If we only have self driving cars on the road in 20-30 years, wouldn't every car on the road have the same amount of risk? and therefore the actuarial models become much simpler, diminishing the role of actuaries?
20-30 years is incredibly optimistic. People keep cars for a while, on top of the time it'll take for the AI to become proven and then for people to get over fear of no direct control. There will be manually driven cars for a while after the first personal autonomous autos are driving around, imo.

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risk moves from buyer to manufacturer... very low frequency and lower premiums (overall less money in the LOB).

yup... actuaries might play a smaller role in that LOB.
Frequency is lower, certainly, although the severity will also go up a lot. Combined with a mix between autonomous and manually driven cars it could actually complicate things for a while before you get to a long run steady state of all autonomous low frequency, low premium paid by big manufacturer.
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Old 08-24-2018, 05:10 PM
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20-30 years is incredibly optimistic. People keep cars for a while, on top of the time it'll take for the AI to become proven and then for people to get over fear of no direct control. There will be manually driven cars for a while after the first personal autonomous autos are driving around, imo.



Frequency is lower, certainly, although the severity will also go up a lot. Combined with a mix between autonomous and manually driven cars it could actually complicate things for a while before you get to a long run steady state of all autonomous low frequency, low premium paid by big manufacturer.
I think exposure will go up too. Autonomous drones and machines will be sent to do dangerous and high risk tasks that humans would never do.
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  #58  
Old 08-24-2018, 06:23 PM
Double_Zero_Six Double_Zero_Six is offline
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Fair enough. I think Life and P&C are perfectly fine to go into. Health and especially Pensions is a different story. If I were 22 today and got an offer between a Pension Consulting firm and a tech startup, both offering a 50-60k starting salary, it would be a no-brainer. Go with tech.
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  #59  
Old 08-24-2018, 08:01 PM
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I thought the Aca was guaranteedActuarialEmploymentInPerpetuity.com
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  #60  
Old 08-25-2018, 06:08 PM
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Originally Posted by NormalDan View Post
20-30 years is incredibly optimistic. People keep cars for a while, on top of the time it'll take for the AI to become proven and then for people to get over fear of no direct control. There will be manually driven cars for a while after the first personal autonomous autos are driving around, imo.



Frequency is lower, certainly, although the severity will also go up a lot. Combined with a mix between autonomous and manually driven cars it could actually complicate things for a while before you get to a long run steady state of all autonomous low frequency, low premium paid by big manufacturer.
I agree with this. I think this fear of auto insurance disapearing in a couple of decades is very much overstated. It will take a looong time to displace all manually driven cars with self-driven cars unless the government takes some type of a drastic measure.
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