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View Poll Results: Will self driving autos kill car insurance?
Of course 42 16.41%
Maybe but not for a long time 185 72.27%
I'm a luddite... 29 11.33%
Voters: 256. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 02-13-2018, 08:35 PM
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Originally Posted by Dan Moore View Post
75% + 40% - 100% = 15%.
Time to move this discussion to the innumeracy thread. (Including me, for falling for it. . .)
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Old 02-14-2018, 09:51 AM
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Originally Posted by JMO View Post
I suspect that answers in the 35% were heavy on
> "I have no idea"
> "never"
> no answer selected.
Originally Posted by Dan Moore View Post
75% + 40% - 100% = 15%.
Er, it's not the remainder we're talking about if you look at what the article claims. If x is the year when they thought Level 5 would be available, the article reports...

75% said x≥2030
40% said x>2030

The second answer is a subset of the first, with the only difference being x=2030, for 75%-40%=35%.

I'm guessing that the actual response of the 40% was something like "much later than 2030," but the article doesn't say it that way. Innumeracy indeed.
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Old 02-14-2018, 10:50 AM
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Old 02-19-2018, 03:31 PM
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I want a self-driving car by the time I'm 85 (2036). That's not far off.
I thought this WAS a real job
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Old 02-21-2018, 07:00 PM
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Pretty sure the numbers can work. Actually to be technical, the article says 75% said NOT < 2030, which is not the same thing as saying > 2030.

So I would think the right interpretation would be that 25% said we would get Level 5 full self-driving automobiles before 2030, and 40% said we would get Level 5 full self-driving automobiles after 2030. The implication is 35% of respondents do not believe it will ever happen at all at a "Level 5" level (or as JMO said, probably also includes the no responses and/or 'don't know' answers).

The 75% who do not believe we will get level 5 self-driving vehicles before 2030 is made up of 40% who believe it will happen after 2030 and 35% who either believe it won't happen or didn't respond/didn't know.
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Old 02-23-2018, 01:09 PM
examsarehard examsarehard is online now
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This is article on competing to create high-definition maps that are apparently needed for autonomous cars:

The fact that:
  • companies seem to agree that higher-resolution maps need to be created for autonomous cars,
  • the maps haven't been created yet, and
  • there isn't even a universal standard for high-resolution maps

leads me to believe that we're still quite some years off before autonomous cars become real consumer products. In the meantime, they will probably be limited to small test areas.

Last edited by examsarehard; 02-23-2018 at 01:14 PM.. Reason: clarification
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Old 02-23-2018, 01:14 PM
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To me, self driving cars would be able to drive without maps, or, the maps we already have. They can get you where you are going. The safe driving aspect shouldn't rely on maps.
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Old 02-23-2018, 03:01 PM
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I've become even more pessimistic about autonomous vehicles than I was when the thread started, and stories about large disconnects in mapping strategies and technologies don't help.
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Old 02-23-2018, 03:09 PM
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Originally Posted by Sredni Vashtar View Post
Nobody said every disengagement is an accident. Could just be a wrong turn or something.
A wrong turn seems like something that should be a lot easier to fix than not seeing a stop sign, parked vehicle, etc. If they're still making wrong turns that seems like we're *even further* away than previously reported.

Also those reports look dumb. I suspect the rate can be artificially reduced by avoiding new/risky situations, and will be unrealistically inflated when they are experimenting.
This, however, is a very good point.
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Old 02-23-2018, 03:39 PM
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Originally Posted by manaknight14 View Post
So 35% of respondents named 2030 as the exact year when Level 5 will be available to consumers?
Some could hold the view that it will never come.
I find your lack of faith disturbing

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