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  #61  
Old 09-20-2017, 12:18 PM
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You know you've got a problem when even the best don't have the solution.

But they are particularly problematic for countries with a generous welfare state.
I have a solution...
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Old 09-20-2017, 12:19 PM
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Originally Posted by campbell View Post
continuing...


I doubt that Nigeria will continue to grow at it's current rate. They'll reach an over population problem before 2050.
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Old 10-11-2017, 08:57 AM
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https://www.brookings.edu/blog/futur...ntent=57226405

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How will we cope when there are too few young people in the world?

Spoiler:

Scholars, philosophers, and political leaders like Thomas Malthus, Jawaharlal Nehru, Bertrand Russell, Paul Ehrlich, and others long warned about the dire consequences of the impending population explosion. Now that we know the planet is not headed for mass overcrowding and famine and will actually only see a modest increase in population over the next 80 years, our concerns are much different—the consequences of a decline.

In the early 20th century, global population grew more rapidly than ever before. Then came a dramatic reversal as population growth began to slow. It appears very likely that the human population will soon stabilize and may even start to decline. Fertility rates are dropping as women become more educated and gain better access to birth control. As fewer babies are born, the average age of the population increases; thus, our planet’s human population is getting older. Today some populations are already declining while others are rising. But soon, populations in most countries will begin to decline.

The United Nations Population Division (UNPD), the World Bank, the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), and others have studied and addressed issues related to population slowdown and its companion issue, the aging of the populace. Figure 1 shows the median of the UNPD and IIASA projections of the projections for global population.

.....
Figure 2 shows UNDP projections for major world regions. Today’s giant, Asia, is slowing down and will peak around 2050, after which it will decline. Europe will slowly decline and the Americas will grow slowly and then stabilize. Africa will continue to increase to the point where its population rivals Asia by the end of the century. The world of tomorrow will be mostly Asian and African.

.....
What about countries that caused the biggest fears of overpopulation? Figure 3 shows UNPD projections for the two countries with the largest populations, China and India. China’s population grew rapidly, but its population growth has slowed and will peak in the next 10 to 15 years, after which it will decline. By the year 2100 China’s population will be just over 1 billion people. India’s population is now about 1.3 billion and India will soon surpass China. But India’s population too will plateau and in the next 30 to 40 years will begin to decline.

....
What is happening in China and India is happening all over the planet. Female fertility rates are plunging in Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, and Brazil. Even in Africa, though its population is rising today, fertility rates in all countries are dropping.

As fewer babies are being born and population stabilizes, people on our planet will keep getting older. How will this change our society?

Let’s look at Japan, a country that is set to shrink to 85 million people by 2100, down from its current peak of 128 million in 2010.

The median age in Japan today is now 46 years old and is expected to increase to 55 years by 2100. Because it has very little immigration, Japan is like a microcosm of the world itself. We know that its economy has been sluggish, its schools are closing, and more and more elderly people are looking after each other because there are no longer young people for those tasks. The economies of China and India, with large numbers of young, educated people, are growing rapidly. But the slowdown in Japan looms over these nations as well as their populations get older.

.....
A lot of today’s innovation comes from young people, creating new and wonderful technologies such as the internet, smart phones, social media, and automation. Older people have difficulty adapting to these new technologies. What will happen to innovation as we all grow older?

When we are getting older, our health care costs rise. At the same time, with fewer people in the workforce our tax collections decline. Houses go empty. Schools close. Our need for roads, bridges, dams, and airports declines. How will governments cope with declining revenues as tax bases no longer increase and new short-term expenses supplant capital expenses?

When growth and expansion are no longer automatic, when we are all growing older, and whenever larger numbers of us are no longer productive but instead need constant care, what happens to our social structures and our economic theory and our well-being?

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  #64  
Old 11-12-2017, 07:26 PM
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https://twitter.com/TheBubbleBubble/...62000678334464

http://www.visualcapitalist.com/anim...western-world/

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Old 11-14-2017, 06:32 PM
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I forgot to copy over all the animations



(It would be cool to do it for the individual states... given, ya know, many of them have greater populations than many of the European countries)

Asia -
https://twitter.com/aronstrandberg/s...83286751285248

Quote:
This is how the Asia-Pacific is aging.

Japan has for long been older than the rest, but now countries like China, Korea, Singapore and Thailand are catching up.
(have to follow link to see animation)

Middle East:
https://twitter.com/aronstrandberg/s...17645628170240
Quote:
Here's how the Middle East is aging. Look at the divergence between Iraq and Iran!
(Iraq is younger than Iran)

whole world in one view:
https://twitter.com/simongerman600/s...11907103006720
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Old 12-08-2017, 05:11 PM
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...=.f0529b3f5508

Quote:
We haven’t prepared for the aging monster
Spoiler:
No one can say we weren’t warned. For years, scholars of all shapes and sizes — demographers, economists, political scientists — have cautioned that the populations of most advanced countries are gradually getting older, with dramatic consequences for economics and politics. But we haven’t taken heed by preparing for an unavoidable future.

The “we” refers not just to the United States but to virtually all advanced societies. In fact, America’s aging, though substantial, is relatively modest compared with that of many European countries and Japan.

The latest warning comes in a massive report on government “pensions” — what Americans call Social Security — from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) in Paris. The OECD is a group of mostly advanced nations, and the report warns that “the pace of pension reforms . . . has slowed.”

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The problem is simple. Low birth rates and increasing life expectancies result in aging populations. Since 1970, average life expectancy at age 60 in OECD countries has risen from 18 years to 23.4 years; by 2050, it’s forecast to increase to 27.9 years — that is, to nearly 90. The costs of Social Security and pensions will explode.


Governments are aware of these pressures and have raised eligibility ages. But changes have been modest and grudging. Only three countries have future retirement ages exceeding 68 (Italy, the Netherlands and Denmark). The increases in the official retirement age are slower than the projected increases in life expectancy, meaning there’s more time for retirement. For men, the average OECD retirement age is projected to increase 1.5 years to “just under 66 years around 2060.” For women, the rise in the retirement age is about 2.1 years, also to around 66.

0:59
Democrats promote pension proposal

0:00

Democrats introduced their pension proposal on Nov. 14. "We believe that seniors should be able to retire with dignity," Rep. Cheri Bustos (D-Ill.) said. (Reuters)
The implication: Unless retirement ages are raised sharply or benefits are cut deeply, more and more of the income of the working-age population will be siphoned off through higher taxes or cuts in other government spending to support retirees.

The prospective pressures will be enormous, as the following table (abbreviated from the OECD report) indicates. It shows the “dependency ratio” for some major countries. The dependency ratio relates the number of elderly (those 65 and older) to the working-age population (those 20 to 64). If the two populations were identical, the ratio would be 100 percent. Although that’s not the case for any major country, most face steep gains. Germany, for example, goes from an elderly population that’s about a third the size of the working population (35 percent in 2015) to one that’s more than half (59 percent in 2050).

Dependency ratio
Ratio of 65+ population to 20-64 population (%)
2015 2050
Brazil 13 40
China 15 48
France 33 52
Germany 35 59
Greece 33 73
Italy 38 72
Japan 46 78
Russia 21 40
United Kingdom 31 48
United States 25 40
Source: OECD

“Few reforms are as contested as raising the retirement age,” says the OECD report (“Pensions at a Glance 2017”). “Why is it so unpopular to work longer even among people with longer life expectancy and in good health?”


Good question. The answer illuminates a dilemma of democracy: Giving people what they want in the present may damage our collective future.
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  #67  
Old 01-04-2018, 09:40 AM
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MICHIGAN

http://www.mlive.com/news/index.ssf/..._citizens.html

Quote:
Michigan residents age 60 and older now almost quarter of state's population
Spoiler:
Thanks to Baby Boomers, Michigan is a rapidly graying state.

In 2016, 23% of Michigan residents were age 60 or older, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

To show the shift over time: In late 1950s, just as Michigan birth rate was hitting its peak, about 8% of Michigan residents were 65 or older. It's now twice that as the Baby Boomers hit retirement age, and the percentage is continuing to inch up every year. The U.S. Census Bureau estimates that 27% of Americans will be age 65 or older by 2050.



pop.JPG
That demographic shift is having a profound impact on individuals and society as a whole. A rapidly aging population typically means a decline in the workforce, which can create shortages of qualified workers and stall economic growth. It also means a lower ratio of workers to retirees, making it harder to fund programs such as Social Security, Medicare and private pension plans.

Older people are much more likely to have expensive health problems, which means health-care costs go up. And an increase in senior citizens reshapes local economies in other ways. There's more demand for health-care and support services. Housing demands are different for seniors compared to young families. Seniors also need or want different goods and services than young adults, forcing businesses to shift gears.

Below is a look at Michigan's senior citizen population based on the latest Census data. We'll begin with a searchable database that provides a county-by-county look at the percentage of residents age 60 and over, and 75 and over, using the Census Bureau's five-year estimate for 2012-16. Those numbers are compared to the 2000 Census.

To compare all counties, click on "all counties" when doing the search. To compare the counties, click on a column heading. Click once for a top-to-bottom sort; click twice for a bottom-to-top sort.

The big caveat about the data: The 2012-16 numbers are estimates, and the margin of error is larger for smaller counties.

In addition, because the numbers cover a five-year period, they likely understate the current senior population since that number grows annually as more Baby Boomers hit 60.

Below are some more fast facts about senior citizens in Michigan.

1. Michigan ranks 18th among 50 states in percent of residents age 65 and older
This graphic from the U.S. Census Bureau shows how the nation has aged since 2000. The median age in 2014 was 37.9 nationally and 39.6 in Michigan.

Based on 2016 Census estimates, Florida has the highest percentage of residents age 65 and older. Also in the top five: Maine, West Virginia, Vermont and Montana. The five states with the lowest percentage: Alaska, Utah, Texas Georgia and Colorado.

Michigan ranks 18th between Arkansas and Ohio.



aging1.JPG
2. Michigan life expectancy at birth has increased by 7 years since 1960
In addition to the Baby Boomer, another factor driving growth in the older population is that people are living longer -- an average of about seven more years compared to 1960. The graph above looks at how life expectancy at birth has changed over time in Michigan.

The chart below looks at changes in life expectancy once people reach age 60.

3. 60-year-olds today can expect to live to about age 83
Michiganders age 60 will live for about 23 more years on average, based on calculations by the CDC. That's three more years than 60-year-olds in 1980 and five and a half years more than 60-year-olds in 1960.

That varies by race and gender, as illustrated in the chart above. It also varies by income and educational attainment: American men in the top 1% of income live, on average, 15 years long than men in the poorest 1%, and gap between the richest and poorest women is about 15 years, according to a recent Harvard study.

Nearly 50% of deaths in Michigan can be attributed to two causes: heart disease and cancer. Heart disease accounted for 26% of Michigan deaths in 2015, and cancer comprised 22%.


Julie Mack | jmack1@mlive.com
4. Michigan's median income is $40,765 for a household headed by someone 65 or older
Seniors have a lower median household income than working-age Michigan residents, but thanks to Social Security, they also have a lower poverty rate, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. About 8% of those age 65 and older live below the poverty line compared to 15% of all Michigan residents.


Julie Mack | jmack1@mlive.com
5. Average Social Security benefits are $21,394 per household
About 80% of Michigan residents age 60 and older and 93% of those age 65 and older collect Social Security, making it the most common form of income for senior citizens. Michigan households headed by someone age 65 and older have an average income of $21,394 from Social Security in 2016.

About 57% age 65 and older get another source of retirement income, such as a pension, annuity or IRA withdrawals. The average per household for that income stream was $22,198 in 2016,

About 43% of those 60 and older have earnings from a job or self-employment.


Julie Mack | jmack1@mlive.com
6. 82% of senior citizens live in an owner-occupied home
Michigan residents age 60 and older are more likely to live in an owner-occupied home than Michigan residents in general, but seniors also are more likely to pay 30 percent or more of their income towards housing costs, according to Census estimates.

For those living in an owner-occupied home, almost a quarter of those age 60 and older pay more than 30% of their income towards housing compared to a fifth 20% of all Michigan adults. And 54% of seniors who rent pay 30% or more of their income towards housing compared to 46% for all adults.


7. About 59% of those age 60 and older are married
About 59% of Michigan residents age 60 and older in 2016 were married, according to Census estimates. Among the 65-and-older age group, 56% are married, 24% are widowed, 15% are divorced or separated and 5% have never married.



Julie Mack | jmack1@mlive.com
8. 41% of senior citizen households involves a senior living alone
About 41% of Michigan households headed by someone age 60 and older involves a senior citizen living alone. That rises to 44% for those age 65 and older. In fact, the percentage of senior-citizen households with someone living alone is slightly higher than the percentage who live with a spouse -- 43.8% compared to 43.5%.

The "other" category includes seniors who live with an unmarried partner, a roommate or an unmarried senior who lives with his or her children or other relatives.

Almost 4% of Michigan residents age 60 and older live with grandchildren, and 1.2% are the primary caretaker.


Julie Mack | jmack1@mlive.com
9. Senior citizens are less-educated than today's young adults
Today's senior citizens grew up at a time when fewer jobs required a four-year degree. About 54% of Michigan residents age 60 and older attended college compared to 61% of all Michigan adults age 25 and older.


Julie Mack | jmack1@mlive.com
10. Michigan's senior citizen population is less diverse than the general population
About 85% of Michigan residents age 60 and older are white compared to 75% of all Michigan residents. Among Michiganders age 65 and older, 87% are white.


Julie Mack | jmack1@mlive.com
11. About 6.5% of Michigan senior citizens are foreign-born
About 6.5% of Michigan's senior citizens were born outside the United States, about the same percentage as the general population. Most of the senior immigrants have been in the U.S. for years, with 83% arriving before 2000. About 77% of foreign-born seniors are now U.S. citizens.


This chart shows the percentage of Americans in each age group who were either working or looking for work in 2014. (Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics)

12. Retirement age trended down for four decades, now trending up
In 1948, almost 50% of American men age 65 and older were still working, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

With improvements in employee pension plans and the passage of Medicare in 1965, early retirement gained popularity for the next several decades. By 1994, only 14% of Americans age 65 or older were either working or looking for work

Since then, the numbers have been creeping back up. In 2014, 19% of those 65 and older were in the workforce and the BLS projects that will increase to 22% by 2024.



This chart shows the percentage of Americans in each age group who were either working or looking for work in 2014. (Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics)

13. 25% of Michigan residents age 60 and older are still working
About 25% of Michigan residents age 60 and older in 2016 were employed compared to 20% in 2005.

Among the reasons Boomers are delaying retirement, according to the BLS: They want to stay active; longer life expectancies mean people need more income in their old age; Social Security has been inching up the minimum age for full benefits, and reductions in in employer retirement benefits keeps many in the workforce until they qualify for Medicare and a higher Social Security check.

To be sure, stayed employed doesn't mean older workers are staying in their long-time career, says a 2016 BLS policy brienf. "About 60 percent of older workers with a 'career job' retire and move to a 'bridge job'; that is, a short-term and/or part-time position.

Another study found that about half of retirees followed nontraditional paths of retirement in that they did not exit the labor force permanently.


(Graphic: Bureau of Labor Statistics)

=
14. Most common professions for older workers
More than 42% of Americans age 55 and older are in management, professional, and related occupations, a somewhat higher proportion compared to all workers, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Here are 10 fields where workers age 55 and old make up at least a third of the workforce in 2016:

Archivists, curators, and museum technicians;
Bus drivers;
Clergy;
Furniture finishers;
Jewelers and precious stone and metal workers;
Legislators;
Medical transcriptionists;
Proofreaders and copy markers;
Property, real estate, and community association managers;
Real estate brokers and sales agents;
Tax preparers;
Travel agents.
As illustrated by the above chart, older workers also are more likely to be self-employed.







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Old 03-02-2018, 10:25 AM
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CHINA

https://money.usnews.com/investing/n...-pension-plans

Quote:
China Working-Age Population Shrinks, Presenting Pitfall for Pension Plans

Spoiler:
BEIJING (Reuters) - China's working-age population fell to its lowest level since 2009 last year and was below a billion for the first time since 2010, data released on Wednesday showed.

Slowing population growth and a shrinking pool of workers present a challenge to China's economic growth as well as its state-run pension program.

China's total working-age population, or the number of people aged between 15 and 64, was 998.3 million people last year, compared to 1.0026 billion at the end of 2016, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed, the biggest decline since the working-age population began falling in 2014.

The number of people 65 or older meanwhile increased to 11.4 percent of China's population of 1.39 billion people, up from 10.8 percent in 2016.

China's rapidly aging population has led to a growing shortfall in the nation's pension scheme. Many of China's provinces only have enough money to pay less than one year’s worth of benefits.


Holes in local pension funds are often filled through transfers of central government funds, and China said in November that it would begin a pilot program to transfer shares in state-owned firms to social security funds.

The aging population comes as births in the country fell by 3.5 percent last year despite a 2016 move to relax China's "one-child policy" amid concerns about the rapidly aging population.

Wednesday's data showed total urban employment increased by 10.34 million people last year as more rural residents moved to cities, though the figure was less than the often-cited statistic of 13.51 million new urban jobs being created last year.

The total number of employed people in China - which includes rural and urban residents - grew by just 370,000 people last year, a much smaller increase than in previous years, the data showed.

With a shrinking potential labor force and companies still hiring, per capita disposable income last year rose 7.3 percent, faster than the 6.3 percent increase in 2016.

(Reporting by Elias Glenn and Stella Qiu; Editing by Nick Macfie)



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Old 03-14-2018, 09:49 AM
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UNITED STATES

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/pres...ojections.html

Quote:
Older People Projected to Outnumber Children for First Time in U.S. History
Spoiler:
2030 Marks Important Demographic Milestones for U.S. Population
From Pyramid to Pillar: A Century of Change, Population of the United States
MARCH 13, 2018 — The year 2030 marks an important demographic turning point in U.S. history according to the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2017 National Population Projections. By 2030, all baby boomers will be older than age 65. This will expand the size of the older population so that 1 in every 5 residents will be retirement age.

“The aging of baby boomers means that within just a couple decades, older people are projected to outnumber children for the first time in U.S. history,” said Jonathan Vespa, a demographer with the U.S. Census Bureau. “By 2035, there will be 78.0 million people 65 years and older compared to 76.4 million under the age of 18.”

The 2030s are projected to be a transformative decade for the U.S. population. The population is expected to grow at a slower pace, age considerably and become more racially and ethnically diverse. Net international migration is projected to overtake natural increase in 2030 as the primary driver of population growth in the United States, another demographic first for the United States.

Although births are projected to be nearly four times larger than the level of net international migration in coming decades, a rising number of deaths will increasingly offset how much births are able to contribute to population growth. Between 2020 and 2050, the number of deaths is projected to rise substantially as the population ages and a significant share of the population, the baby boomers, age into older adulthood. As a result, the population will naturally grow very slowly, leaving net international migration to overtake natural increase as the leading cause of population growth, even as projected levels of migration remain relatively constant.

Other highlights:

Population Growth
Driving Population Growth: Projected Number of People Added to U.S. Population by Natural Increase and Net International Migration
By 2060, the United States is projected to grow by 78 million people, from about 326 million today to 404 million. The population is projected to cross the 400-million threshold in 2058.
In coming years, the rate at which the U.S. population grows is expected to slow down. The population is projected to grow by an average of 2.3 million people per year until 2030. But that number is expected to decline to an average of 1.8 million per year between 2030 and 2040, and continue falling to 1.5 million per year from 2040 to 2060.
Aging
An Aging Nation: Projected Number of Children and Older Adults
As the population ages, the ratio of older adults to working-age adults, also known as the old-age dependency ratio, is projected to rise. By 2020, there will be about three-and-a-half working-age adults for every retirement-age person. By 2060, that ratio will fall to just two-and-a-half working-age adults for every retirement-age person.
The median age of the U.S. population is expected to grow from age 38 today to age 43 by 2060.
Race and Ethnicity
The non-Hispanic White-alone population is projected to shrink over the coming decades, from 199 million in 2020 to 179 million in 2060 — even as the U.S. population continues to grow. Their decline is driven by falling birth rates and a rising number of deaths over time among non-Hispanic Whites as that population ages. In comparison, the White-alone population, regardless of Hispanic origin, is projected to grow from about 253 million to 275 million over the same period.
The Two or More Races population is projected to be the fastest growing over the next several decades, followed by single-race Asians and Hispanics of any race. The causes of their growth are different, however. For Hispanics and people who are Two or More Races, their high growth rates are largely the result of high rates of natural increase, given the relatively young age structures of these populations. For Asians, the driving force behind their growth is high net international migration.
Children
By 2020, less than half of children in the United States are projected to be non-Hispanic white alone (49.8 percent of the projected 73.9 million children under age 18). In comparison, about 72 percent of children are projected to be White alone, regardless of Hispanic origin.
The share of children who are Two or More Races is projected to more than double in coming decades, from 5.3 percent today to 11.3 percent in 2060.
The racial and ethnic composition of younger birth cohorts is expected to change more quickly than for older cohorts. In 2060, over one-third of children are projected to be non-Hispanic white alone compared with over one-half of older adults (36.5 percent compared with 55.1 percent, respectively).
Background on the 2017 Projections Series
The 2017 National Population Projections are the third set of projections based on the 2010 Census. This series updates the prior series released in 2014, which was the first to incorporate separate assumptions about the fertility of native-born and foreign-born women living in the United States, since the latter tend to have higher fertility rates.

The 2017 series extends that work to include assumptions about the mortality of native-born and foreign-born people. For the first time, the national population projections will account for the generally lower mortality rates and higher life expectancy of the foreign-born, which allows us to better project for the effects of international migration on the population of the United States. The 2017 series also includes projections of the racial and ethnic composition of children and older adults for the first time.

See population projections for more information or visit census.gov.


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Old 03-14-2018, 12:25 PM
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That seems important.

But the figure on the left does not look like a pyramid. Onion dome maybe? Fountain pen tip?
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