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  #351  
Old 01-31-2018, 05:32 PM
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Mary Pat Campbell
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Originally Posted by twig93 View Post
Mary Pat, from your reading on this topic, do you have a sense of the age range at which this year's flu is most lethal? (Or anyone else more educated than me on this topic.)

My understanding is that flu usually targets the very young and very old, but the 1919 pandemic was somewhat unique in that it was largely working-age adults that were dying from it.

Just curious how this year's more-lethal-than-normal strain compared.
I just pulled the CDC data from here:
https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/mortality.html

Note that they combine flu & pneumonia deaths in there.

Their thresholds are against a curve on percentage of deaths due to these causes in total.

Select the "<18" from the age selector on the far right, and you'll see pediatric deaths are a bit low (I downloaded the underlying data, btw, and keep in mind that the data are not necessarily fully developed for the last weeks on that graph) -- part of the issue, of course, is that so few children die in the first place, so this is an extremely noisy curve.

There are two other age ranges -- it's bad for 18-64, but it's really bad for 65+.

There's also a powerpoint deck here:
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/weekl.../FluView03.ppt

(The template is awful..you have to see it for yourself)

Anyway, pediatric deaths make the news the most, because it's so rare.

The numbers through the first week of 2018, for the 2017-2018 flu season:

pediatric deaths: 21 from flu, 119 from pneumonia
18-64: 351 from flu, 7,358 from pneumonia
65+: 1695 from flu, 34,571 from pneumonia

Obviously, not all the pneumonia deaths are flu-driven.
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  #352  
Old 01-31-2018, 05:34 PM
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Originally Posted by campbell View Post
I just pulled the CDC data from here:
https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/mortality.html

Note that they combine flu & pneumonia deaths in there.

Their thresholds are against a curve on percentage of deaths due to these causes in total.

Select the "<18" from the age selector on the far right, and you'll see pediatric deaths are a bit low (I downloaded the underlying data, btw, and keep in mind that the data are not necessarily fully developed for the last weeks on that graph) -- part of the issue, of course, is that so few children die in the first place, so this is an extremely noisy curve.

There are two other age ranges -- it's bad for 18-64, but it's really bad for 65+.

There's also a powerpoint deck here:
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/weekl.../FluView03.ppt

(The template is awful..you have to see it for yourself)

Anyway, pediatric deaths make the news the most, because it's so rare.

The numbers through the first week of 2018, for the 2017-2018 flu season:

pediatric deaths: 21 from flu, 119 from pneumonia
18-64: 351 from flu, 7,358 from pneumonia
65+: 1695 from flu, 34,571 from pneumonia

Obviously, not all the pneumonia deaths are flu-driven.
Thanks!
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Old 01-31-2018, 05:34 PM
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If you want to explore the virus type, here's an interface:
https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/fl...dashboard.html

Unlike the mortality data explorer, these data go back 20 years
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  #354  
Old 02-07-2018, 09:37 AM
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HOSPITALIZATIONS

http://www.foxnews.com/health/2018/0...-cdc-says.html

Quote:
Flu hospitalizations are 'the highest we've seen,' CDC says
Spoiler:
Health officials at the Centers of Disease Control and Prevention rang the alarm about this year's deadly flu fleason at their weekly Friday briefing, saying "overall hospitalizations are now the highest we’ve seen, even higher than 2014-2015 high season.”

Just as concerning, the number of pediatric deaths rose this week by 16, from 37 to 53.

Twenty percent of the children who died had been vaccinated, officials said.

Dr. Anne Schuchat, the new acting director at the CDC, said H3N2 continues to dominate this season, but other strains ─ like H1N1 and Influenza B ─ are also being reported around the country.

Dr. Dan Jernigan reported at the briefing a rise in hospitalization rates from 41.9 per 100,000 last week to 51.4 this week. He said that number may ultimately exceed that of 2014-2015, when there were 710,000 by season’s end.

There was some good news reported as well. Flu activity in the western part of the U.S. may be easing up. Oregon is reporting fewer number of cases, so officials were hopeful the trend showed a decrease of activity out West.

Flu activity on the East Coast and the South are higher, however, with adults 65 years and older the most impacted.

Despite the low effectiveness in the flu vaccines, the CDC recommends getting an Influenza shot for everyone age 6 months or older.


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Old 02-07-2018, 12:24 PM
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Originally Posted by campbell View Post
Twenty percent of the children who died had been vaccinated, officials said.
Wow. I had been wondering that statistic. Would be nice to see it for non-pediatric deaths also.

I wonder how it translates into a Qx(flu) given vaccination / non-vaccination status. Probably a bit much to expect a newspaper to calculate. Especially to calculate accurately.
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Old 02-07-2018, 12:28 PM
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A lot of the data are incomplete. I've been pulling the data from FluView as they update, and they provide an estimate of how complete their data are.

There's a few weeks lag, and the most recent data aren't fully developed. That said, it actually looks like the peak for hospitalizations & deaths happened at the usual time - end of December/begin of January.

In a prior year, though, there were two peaks for hospitalizations - so perhaps that will happen again. i have only about 10 years of data.
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Old 02-08-2018, 02:17 PM
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FLU
HONG KONG

http://www.thinkadvisor.com/2018/02/...paign=02082018

Quote:
Hong Kong to Extend School Holidays Amid Deadly Flu Outbreak
Mortality risk update

Spoiler:
Hong Kong’s kindergarten and primary school students will start their Chinese New Year holiday from Thursday, earlier than originally planned, amid an influenza outbreak that has claimed more than 100 lives in the city.

The government rolled out the measure due to the “severe” infection, said Wong Ka-hing, Controller of the Centre for Health Protection, in a briefing on Wednesday. School children were originally scheduled to start the holiday two or three days before the Chinese New Year on Feb. 16.

Two children have died during the current outbreak in Hong Kong, according to officials.

Authorities have recorded 194 severe cases among adults, 111 of whom have died.

Hong Kong’s Chief Executive Carrie Lam announced in January an additional HK$500 million for the city’s public hospitals to tackle influenza.


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  #358  
Old Yesterday, 02:19 PM
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FLU

my last post on it:
http://stump.marypat.org/article/917...-february-1918

I grabbed this graph:


As far as I can tell, with respect to hospitalizations and mortality, the 2017-2018 season is on a par with 2014-2015.

But outpatient visits? Yeah, it's way elevated.

http://www.thinkadvisor.com/2018/02/...paign=02192018

Quote:
We May Finally Be Turning the Corner on America’s Flu Epidemic
The CDC sees reporting delays
Spoiler:
The influenza outbreak that’s killed thousands of Americans and wreaked havoc on the lives of many more seems to have passed its peak and started a slow retreat.

The number of doctor visits for flu-like symptoms plateaued in the week ended Feb. 10, accounting for 7.5% of medical appointments, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. While it’s a good sign that flu activity is starting to level off, it’s a far cry from the precipitous drop in doctor visits typically seen when a busy season starts to come to a close.

The CDC’s national map of influenza activity offers some hope. The agency color-codes the severity of the outbreak using a legend of bright green for states with minimal flu activity, rising to deep red for those inundated by the virus. The map is lightening up in the West, with five states reporting minimal to low flu activity.

The map tracks the unusual pattern of this year’s outbreak, which unexpectedly hit the West first. Most flu seasons start in the Southeast, in states like Florida, then move north and west. Most of the East Coast is still socked in with high flu activity.

The terrible toll of deaths linked to pneumonia and influenza this year may be slowing as well. Mortality levels, while still significantly above epidemic rates, are no longer rising. The two related conditions accounted for 9.8% of all U.S. deaths in the week ended Jan. 27, down from more than 10%.

The caveat is there’s currently a delay in accounting for deaths that have occurred in 2018, perhaps leading to an undercounting. Death rates typically trail influenza severity as infected patients continue to fight the disease.

The bad news on child deaths tied to the outbreak, however, continues. An additional 22 pediatric deaths were reported to the CDC in the past week, bringing the total to 84 children who have died from the virus so far this season.
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