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  #381  
Old 07-17-2018, 12:52 PM
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this.

could have been tiny amounts guaranteed.

he already has 1/14.5M guraranteed. and they could use franchise again on him (at 1.44x 14.5M) so 2/35M or so is where he is sitting. So if they offered him 5/70M, he should want at least 30M in the first two years and then a big guarantee for that third year. I seriously doubt PIT offered him 5/70 with 40M+ guaranteed, but that's what it would take for them to take him off the market. even the depressed as hell RB market, Bell has more leverage at this point and those are the numbers his agent HAS to demand.

If he assumes he needs to hit the open market to max his lifetime earnings, Bell now has to poison the relationship with PIT to the extent they will NOT franchise him (or get them guarantee they won't tag him again). And he needs to stay healthy. I would not expect him at training camp at all. He might be a candidate for missing game checks until late but that gets thrown around and when push comes to shove, most guys with 800K a week coming to them show up for that work.
Rumor was that the PIT offer included $33M guaranteed over the first 2 years, with $45M over the first 3 (not all guaranteed).
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  #382  
Old 07-17-2018, 02:08 PM
Dr T Non-Fan Dr T Non-Fan is offline
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As a RB, he should take it. He won't be around forever. Will need the cash when he hits 40 and needs a whole new body. And brain.
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  #383  
Old 07-17-2018, 03:22 PM
tommie frazier tommie frazier is offline
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Rumor was that the PIT offer included $33M guaranteed over the first 2 years, with $45M over the first 3 (not all guaranteed).
so...the rumored deal is not a better deal than what he could get if he accepted the franchise, got tagged again, and then hit FA. But on the bright side the team had options to keep him longer if they chose. That's an easy decline, esp since he has now negotiated a couple times with them like this and it isn't working out.

So he will take some injury risk and see if he can get himself more than $20M more in guarantees next year. Could be interesting in how out of range he is for the position and market. But he won't know what the actual market will bring if he doesn't try. And the PIT rumor wasn't high enough to make him skip that chance.

The RB market is very team-friendly. It won't change until someone with skills like his actually tests the market. He might not like the answer but at least he will have control of his situation.
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  #384  
Old 07-17-2018, 03:36 PM
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I would not be at all surprised if PIT did not franchise him next season. I think that would be the right decision for both parties.
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  #385  
Old 07-17-2018, 03:50 PM
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As a RB, he should take it. He won't be around forever. Will need the cash when he hits 40 and needs a whole new body. And brain.


I doubt he's going to get much better on the FA market.
I even think it's kind of dumb for the Steelers to be paying him franchise tag money.
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  #386  
Old 07-17-2018, 05:27 PM
tommie frazier tommie frazier is offline
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I doubt he's going to get much better on the FA market.
I even think it's kind of dumb for the Steelers to be paying him franchise tag money.
if all that was guaranteed was the amount of this year and next year's franchise values, then he didn't gain anything by locking himself up for the extra 3 years. So that's an easy decline.

he is NOT going to get 14m per year on the open market. I think we all agree. But he might get more than $20M in guarantees in whatever free agent deal he signs next year. And possibly a lot more (although it will be a freakish RB contract if he does). So why give up freedom and control for no meaningful additional cash? He could possibly get 4/50M with like 35M of it guaranteed next year if the right team with tons of cap space steps into the mess and lights that cap space on fire. The 49ers had a ton of space and paid a half back 5M a year. So someone else w a ton of space could splash here.

He would be better off marketing himself as a slot receiver at this point. Receivers are getting PAID...

Other news - Brandin Cooks signs a 5 year extension for $80M. Don't the rams have a more important guy to lock up? I like cooks and really liked him in NE last year (he was pretty good, but not unbelievably so). I would never pay him 16M per year on avg.
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  #387  
Old 07-18-2018, 01:21 PM
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Originally Posted by tommie frazier View Post
if all that was guaranteed was the amount of this year and next year's franchise values, then he didn't gain anything by locking himself up for the extra 3 years. So that's an easy decline.

he is NOT going to get 14m per year on the open market. I think we all agree. But he might get more than $20M in guarantees in whatever free agent deal he signs next year. And possibly a lot more (although it will be a freakish RB contract if he does). So why give up freedom and control for no meaningful additional cash? He could possibly get 4/50M with like 35M of it guaranteed next year if the right team with tons of cap space steps into the mess and lights that cap space on fire. The 49ers had a ton of space and paid a half back 5M a year. So someone else w a ton of space could splash here.

He would be better off marketing himself as a slot receiver at this point. Receivers are getting PAID...
There is no reason to treat next year's franchise tag as guaranteed money.

Highest free agent RB contract in the NFL right now is Devonta Freeman with $17m guaranteed (Elliot/Fournette have higher rookie guaranteed money).

He could probably get $25m guarateed in free agency, but sure as hell isn't getting $14m/year. Take the slightly less guaranteed money for a crazy high non-guaranteed salary and make the Steelers have to choose to cut him.

He's pretty young, but has a ton of carries already. I don't think the RB market is going to be all that favorable to him. He just does need one dumb team to throw him money though, so who knows.
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  #388  
Old 07-25-2018, 07:54 PM
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Gurley has an extension.

"A source told Schefter that the deal is worth $60 million and includes $45 million guaranteed, the largest guarantee given to a running back."


I think this makes sense. He's 23. Still don't think it's a benchmark for Bell due to the touches that Bell has had. Bu may be a reference point for Johnson.



Side note: I don't see how Julio comes out of his situation with a new contract. This isn't good.
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  #389  
Old 07-25-2018, 08:28 PM
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Football GMs might be employing actuaries to estimate "time of career termination," not guaranteeing equivalent salary amounts past that time.

Pretty sure Lloyd's would do this if asked to insure a contract.

I'm surprised we don't hear about NFL GMs insuring the guaranteed portions of contracts due to injury or what-not.

Heck, I'm surprised that NFL PLAYERS don't try to insure their NON-guaranteed portions of their contracts. Not sure what the premium would be, though. "Accidents" are not the main cause of contract termination. Butthole GMs are, mainly.

Sorry, I'm actuary-splaining again.
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DTNF's Trademarked Standard Career Advice: "pass some exams and get back to us."
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DTNF's Law of Job Offers: You not only have to qualify for the position, but you also have to be the best candidate available for the offer.
DTNF's Work Philosophy: I am actuary. Please insert data. -- Actuary Actuarying Rodriguez.
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  #390  
Old 07-26-2018, 12:17 AM
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Side note: I don't see how Julio comes out of his situation with a new contract. This isn't good.
Breaking news: Julio will report to camp
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