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  #61  
Old 06-26-2018, 09:41 AM
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But this is now with Jerry West at the helm imo. It's not the same Clippers and Knicks FOs anymore.
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  #62  
Old 06-26-2018, 09:42 AM
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  #63  
Old 06-26-2018, 09:44 AM
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Lebron Destination Probability (IMO)

I think there is a good chance he goes to LA if LA can trade for Kawhi or sign Paul George. I think the probability that LA trades for Kawhi is only around 10%-15%. The probability of landing Paul George is more tricky because one of them has to move first and I don't think either is likely to move without the the other so there has to be some kind of backdoor deal between the 2 to make it work out. I guess I put this at about 50%. I think Lebron is probably about 80% to go to LA given they get either of these players so his likelihood to go to LA is like 42.5% (.8(.5*.85 +.15*.2+.5*.15))

I think there is about 15% chance the Sixers can talk him into signing there, but they would have to convince him to play off the ball and let Simmons run the team.

I give the rest of the NBA a 5% chance.

Cleveland gets the rest at 37.5% chance
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  #64  
Old 06-26-2018, 11:14 AM
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No chance for Houston?

I don't see how Houston can make it work. Capela will get paid, and we all assume CP3 will too. Once that happens their cap is blown. I don't know how all the Houston talk started, but I never understood it. So he is probably going to Houston.

I really want him to go to the sixers and continue to be the bane of Boston.
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  #65  
Old 06-26-2018, 01:14 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dgtatum View Post
Lebron Destination Probability (IMO)

I think there is a good chance he goes to LA if LA can trade for Kawhi or sign Paul George. I think the probability that LA trades for Kawhi is only around 10%-15%. The probability of landing Paul George is more tricky because one of them has to move first and I don't think either is likely to move without the the other so there has to be some kind of backdoor deal between the 2 to make it work out. I guess I put this at about 50%. I think Lebron is probably about 80% to go to LA given they get either of these players so his likelihood to go to LA is like 42.5% (.8(.5*.85 +.15*.2+.5*.15))

I think there is about 15% chance the Sixers can talk him into signing there, but they would have to convince him to play off the ball and let Simmons run the team.

I give the rest of the NBA a 5% chance.

Cleveland gets the rest at 37.5% chance
Players can talk to each other all they want really. So he and George can easily agree to both go there.
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  #66  
Old 06-26-2018, 01:15 PM
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No chance for Houston?

I don't see how Houston can make it work. Capela will get paid, and we all assume CP3 will too. Once that happens their cap is blown. I don't know how all the Houston talk started, but I never understood it. So he is probably going to Houston.

I really want him to go to the sixers and continue to be the bane of Boston.
I don't see it happening either, but it was from the POV I believe as that would be the best chance to dethrone GSW. And CP3 was a Banana Boater if my memory serves correct.
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  #67  
Old 06-26-2018, 02:56 PM
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No chance for Houston?

I don't see how Houston can make it work. Capela will get paid, and we all assume CP3 will too. Once that happens their cap is blown. I don't know how all the Houston talk started, but I never understood it. So he is probably going to Houston.

I really want him to go to the sixers and continue to be the bane of Boston.
That's in the rest of the NBA 5% bucket.

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Players can talk to each other all they want really. So he and George can easily agree to both go there.
I know that, it's still difficult to agree to something when so much money is on the line and there are so many competing interests pulling both players (family, agents, endorsers, etc.). Really in the end they have to make the decision for themselves given part of the process might be the other persons decision. It's certainly complicated.
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  #68  
Old 06-26-2018, 04:05 PM
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That's in the rest of the NBA 5% bucket.



I know that, it's still difficult to agree to something when so much money is on the line and there are so many competing interests pulling both players (family, agents, endorsers, etc.). Really in the end they have to make the decision for themselves given part of the process might be the other persons decision. It's certainly complicated.
Like when Baron and Elton agreed to sign with the Clippers and Elton bolted for Philly after Baron had signed. Oops.

And then the Clips traded Baron with 1st rounder in a salary dump to Cleveland for Jamario Moon and Mo Williams. 1st rounder ended up being Kyrie.
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  #69  
Old 06-26-2018, 04:47 PM
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No chance for Houston?

I don't see how Houston can make it work. Capela will get paid, and we all assume CP3 will too. Once that happens their cap is blown. I don't know how all the Houston talk started, but I never understood it. So he is probably going to Houston.

I really want him to go to the sixers and continue to be the bane of Boston.
Why would Houston pay CP3? They were competitive with the greatest team ever assembled without him, he's past his prime, and he gets injured every year.

Harden, Gordon, Ariza, LeBron and Capela would be filthy. But I think there's a greater chance that he goes to Philly than others here. You don't tell the best player in the league to change his game suit a 21-year-old. There's no reason LeBron and Simmons couldn't share the responsibility of creating offense for the Sixers. This might be the best way for LeBron to play until he's 40+...by gradually giving more of this responsibility to Simmons as he approaches his prime and LeBron eventually leaves his (assuming that he actually is human and that this will happen). Can you even imagine how impossible it would be for anyone to defend a team with two 6'9 PGs?
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  #70  
Old 06-26-2018, 05:02 PM
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Why would Houston pay CP3? They were competitive with the greatest team ever assembled without him, he's past his prime, and he gets injured every year.

Harden, Gordon, Ariza, LeBron and Capela would be filthy. But I think there's a greater chance that he goes to Philly than others here. You don't tell the best player in the league to change his game suit a 21-year-old. There's no reason LeBron and Simmons couldn't share the responsibility of creating offense for the Sixers. This might be the best way for LeBron to play until he's 40+...by gradually giving more of this responsibility to Simmons as he approaches his prime and LeBron eventually leaves his (assuming that he actually is human and that this will happen). Can you even imagine how impossible it would be for anyone to defend a team with two 6'9 PGs?
I think they'll pay CP3. I imagine they gave him a wink wink to opt in last year. It is also the only way I think to sign a good player. They are already at 78M in salaries. Capela and Ariza are FAs and their cap holds will push them close to 100M+...so I don't see how they could then sign Lebron.

Maybe a crazy sign n trade, but I don't see it.
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