

FlashChat  Actuarial Discussion  Preliminary Exams  CAS/SOA Exams  Cyberchat  Around the World  Suggestions 
DW Simpson 
Actuarial Salary Surveys 
Actuarial Meeting Schedule 
Contact DW Simpson 
Probability Old Exam P Forum 

Thread Tools  Search this Thread  Display Modes 
#1




Custom Problem of My Own
Assumptions:
There are 20 work days in the month. An employee has a maximum of three additional days sick time per month. Sick days are uniformly likely on any given day. What is the probability that an employee calls out the first two 'Saturdays' of each month three months in a row? Help me wrap my mind about how to set this up. Week 1 (5c1)*(3/20)*(17/20)^4 = .3915 Week 2 (5c1)*(3/20)*(17/20)^4 = .3915*(same day of week 1/5)= .0783 Week 3 (5c0)*(17/20)^5=.4437 Week 4 (5c0)*(17/20)^5=.4437 Probability for one month: .3915*.0783*.4437^2=.006 Probability for three months: .006^3=.000000219 
#2




Quote:
I would stick to questions that are clearly defined and don't work with ambiguous numbers of days in the month and number of weeks in the month.
__________________

#3




I agree. Better to stick with welldefined questions. Here, it’s questionable why if the binomial distribution is appropriate at all, if there is a maximum of 3 callins per month (and also a minimum of 3? Otherwise why is 3/20 appropriate?). And why is it less likely that a callin is Saturday the first week than the second?

Thread Tools  Search this Thread 
Display Modes  

