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#1




SOA 289 #15 / ASM 46.27
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#4




My recollection is that for this to work you need to have all successes and no failures.
Jim Daniel
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#5




Quote:
The first line of the solution states "We cannot use the bernoulli/beta shortcut here since the uniform distribution is only up to .5" I tried doing it using the shortcut and then just multiplying it by .5 at the end, and that gives me .375. What is different here? 
#7




So just to be sure I have it straight 
When we have uniform [0,1], the "regular" shortcut always works. If we have uniform [0, b], and we observe 0 claims, then it would be (regular shortcut)*b. But since in this problem, we observe 1 claim (not all successes), we must work it from first principles. Is that accurate? 
#8




Exam C SOA Sample #15
I am struggling with the last part of the solution to this Bayesian credibility problem. My understanding is that I can get the probability during the year 9 by integrating the posterior density function over 0 to 0.5. Why is the solution's integrand the posterior density multiply by p? Thank you.

#9




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asm, bayes, conjugate, soa 
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