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  #4711  
Old 04-01-2020, 08:40 PM
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ElDucky ElDucky is offline
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Originally Posted by fdsafdsa View Post
The virus multiplies in your body, so, it doesn't really make sense.
Antibody response is better when viral load is lower at first, so more time for antibodies to catch up?
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  #4712  
Old 04-01-2020, 09:05 PM
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Originally Posted by fdsafdsa View Post
The virus multiplies in your body, so, it doesn't really make sense.


Think of it like hospitals getting overrun.
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  #4713  
Old 04-01-2020, 09:14 PM
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Originally Posted by fdsafdsa View Post
The virus multiplies in your body, so, it doesn't really make sense.
Huh? It's a race between your immune system and the virus. A small dose gives the immune system a head start.

People used to literally prevent smallpox by giving a healthy person a carefully measured small dose of smallpox, so they would get a minor case of smallpox and recover. That was the first immunization, before it was discovered that the much safer cowpox also imparted immunity to smallpox.
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  #4714  
Old 04-01-2020, 09:16 PM
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University of Nebraska pre-print seems to confirm airborne (aerosol) transmission, even in absence of cough:

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the data is suggestive that viral aerosol particles are produced by individuals that have the COVID-19 disease, even in the absence of cough. First, in the few instances where the distance between individuals in isolation and air sampling could be confidently maintained at greater than 6 ft, 2 of the 3 air samples were positive for viral RNA. Second, 66.7% of hallway air samples indicate that virus-containing particles were being 30 transported from the rooms to the hallway during sampling activities. It is likely that the positive air samples in the hallway were cause by viral aerosol particles transported by personnel exiting the room (16,17). Finally, personal air samplers worn by sampling personnel were all positive for SARS-CoV-2, despite the absence of cough by most patients while sampling personnel were present.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...446v2.full.pdf
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  #4715  
Old 04-01-2020, 09:26 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fdsafdsa View Post
The virus multiplies in your body, so, it doesn't really make sense.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lucy View Post
Huh? It's a race between your immune system and the virus. A small dose gives the immune system a head start.

People used to literally prevent smallpox by giving a healthy person a carefully measured small dose of smallpox, so they would get a minor case of smallpox and recover. That was the first immunization, before it was discovered that the much safer cowpox also imparted immunity to smallpox.
Eh, I was going to say more, but the article says most of what I wanted to say, including that pretty much every infectious disease is dose-dependant, and that this is well known.
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  #4716  
Old 04-01-2020, 09:36 PM
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I may have posted this earlier when it appeared in Nature, but here it is again. Cats and ferrets can get COVID and spread it between each other.

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Cats can infect each other with coronavirus, Chinese study finds
Feline transmission to humans not shown but infected pet owners warned to be careful

Spoiler:
Cat owners may wish to be more cautious about contact with their pets, as a study from China has revealed Covid-19 can be transmitted between cats.

The team, at Harbin Veterinary Research Institute in China, found that cats are highly susceptible to Covid-19 and appear to be able to transmit the virus through respiratory droplets to other cats. Dogs, chickens, pigs and ducks were found to be unlikely to catch the infection, however.

The findings followed recent reports of a pet cat in Belgium being infected with Covid-19. About a week after the cat’s owner started showing symptoms, the cat also developed breathing difficulties, diarrhoea and vomiting, and subsequent tests by vets at the University of Liège showed the animal was infected with coronavirus.

The lab experiments from the Chinese team involved a small number of animals that were given a high dose of the virus and there is no direct evidence that cats would also be able to infect people. However, the team behind the work said their findings provided important insights into the animal reservoirs of Covid-19 and how animal management might have a role in the control of the pandemic.

“Surveillance for Sars-CoV-2 in cats should be considered as an adjunct to elimination of of Covid-19 in humans,” the paper concluded.

The work, which is not yet peer-reviewed, was uploaded to the preprint website bioRxiv on Wednesday. In the study, five cats were inoculated with coronavirus. Three of the animals were placed in cages next to cats that had not been given the virus, and one of the exposed cats also became infected, suggesting that transmission occurred through respiratory droplets. The findings were then replicated in a second group of cats. Ferrets, which are already being used in vaccine trials for Covid-19, were also found to be susceptible.

Experts said the findings were credible, but that they did not indicate cats were an important vector in spreading the disease between humans.

Prof Eric Fèvre, chair of veterinary infectious diseases at the University of Liverpool, said: “People should take usual precautions of hand washing when handling their pets, and avoid overly intimate contact, especially if sick with Covid. It is important to add that this says nothing about how the virus coming out of a cat may or may not be infectious to humans.”

Prof Jonathan Ball, a virologist at the University of Nottingham, said similar observations of transmission in cats had been made in relation to Sars, which is genetically closely related to Covid-19. “However, it should be remembered that cats are not playing much, if any, role in the spread of this virus,” he said. “Human to human transmission is clearly the main driver, so there is no need to panic about cats as an important source of virus. Obviously, if you think you have Covid-19 and share a house with a cat, then it would be sensible to limit close interactions with your furry friend until you are better.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...estM0MzSDjms4A
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  #4717  
Old 04-01-2020, 09:39 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fdsafdsa View Post
The virus multiplies in your body, so, it doesn't really make sense.
I'll gladly ingest a single SARS-CoV-2 virus, if you'll ingest 10^9 of them...

You are wrong, of course. Initial viral load influences outcome for almost all viruses.
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  #4718  
Old 04-01-2020, 10:09 PM
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US deaths are still marching upwards at a steep clip, but I'm cautiously optimistic that the number of new case per day may be slowing down.
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  #4719  
Old 04-01-2020, 11:24 PM
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Japan’s numbers may not be so good after all.

Looks like someone was trying to save face.

Japan Considers Declaring National Lockdown Over Coronavirus

Quote:
Hopes that Japan had managed to avoid an explosion in COVID-19 cases fade, as the numbers rise and the country teeters on the brink of declaring a national emergency and lockdown.

STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:

Until recently, Japan seemed successful in fighting the pandemic. It faced far fewer COVID-19 cases than, say, nearby China. But Japan's caseload is now up to 2,200, and officials warn the number is still rising. The administration of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is debating whether to declare a national emergency. NPR's Anthony Kuhn reports from Seoul.

ANTHONY KUHN, BYLINE: Japan's approach to the coronavirus has been effective with past epidemics, says Dr. Masahiro Kami, chairman of the Tokyo-based nonprofit Medical Governance Research Institute. The basic idea, he says, is to isolate clusters of infected people, trace whom they've contacted and test people with symptoms.

MASAHIRO KAMI: (Speaking Japanese).

KUHN: "They had used this method in previous outbreaks of plague and cholera. But this time," he says, "they failed to consider that people who show no symptoms can infect many others."

The government's National Institute of Infectious Diseases was put in charge of testing, and Kami says it tried to protect its turf. One result, he says, is that Japan has been testing a fraction of the patients it's capable of.

KAMI: (Speaking Japanese).

KUHN: "The Abe administration did not explicitly order the institute to do it this way," he says. "But they also did not strongly criticize it. The administration also may not have wanted an increase in case numbers to affect the Olympics."

But the virus forced Abe, last week, to postpone the Olympics until next year. The day after he did that, case numbers reported in Tokyo more than doubled, although the government denies that had anything to do with the games. In the following days, prefectural governors, including Tokyo's, and medical experts called for a state of emergency. Here is Satoshi Kamayachi, executive board member of the Japan Medical Association, speaking at a press conference this week.

(SOUNDBITE OF PRESS CONFERENCE)

SATOSHI KAMAYACHI: (Speaking Japan).

KUHN: "It would be too late to declare a state of emergency after the explosive spread of infections takes place," he said. "We're now in a situation where that declaration could already have been made."

Corporate leaders, though, are reportedly against it because of the impact it would have on the economy. And so far, Abe seems to have sided with them. Here's what he said in a press conference Saturday night.

(SOUNDBITE OF PRESS CONFERENCE)

PRIME MINISTER SHINZO ABE: (Speaking Japanese).

KUHN: "At this point, we don't need to declare a state of emergency." But he added, "we are right now on the brink."

A national emergency would not necessarily be draconian. It would empower local governors to request people to stay at home but would not mandate tough punishments. Nevertheless...

LAWRENCE REPETA: The notion of emergency powers is very controversial in Japan.

REPETA: That's Lawrence Repeta, former professor of law at Meiji University in Tokyo. What concerns many Japanese, he says, is that Prime Minister Abe wants to go further and write emergency powers into Japan's constitution, basically giving him the power to rule by decree. Repeta says Abe believes...

REPETA: We should rewrite the constitution in order to create a lower level of individual rights protection and stronger governmental power.

KUHN: Opinion polls show that most Japanese oppose Abe's constitutional revisions. Many are mindful of the lessons of history from the 1930s, when police were empowered to quash dissent and militarists led Japan into World War II.

Anthony Kuhn, NPR News, Seoul.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Statatak View Post
I'm not the sharpest tool on the AO, but I'm comforted by the idea that no matter how vapid and incoherent my arguments are that there may be a kernel of truth buried somewhere.
Quote:
Originally Posted by 2pac Shakur View Post
i am broken and incapable of thought and a bunch of other stuff

Last edited by Brock; 04-01-2020 at 11:43 PM..
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  #4720  
Old 04-02-2020, 01:48 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Incredible Hulctuary View Post
The chart has been updated to include March 30. Now Covid-19 is the third leading cause of death in America (on a per-day basis), behind only heart disease and cancer.
And now with 3/31 it is closing in fast. Next week it will probably take over 1st place.

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Originally Posted by fdsafdsa View Post
Also possible China's early lockdown worked better than America's half hearted attempts.
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Originally Posted by Brock View Post
It wasn’t early. They waited months to lockdown while they denied anything serious was going on. Remember the whistleblower doctor? Then in the middle and end of the lockdown they tightened Chinese media, kicked out foreign reporters, and shut up Chinese reporters working for foreign media. But, sure, their lockdown could have stopped the spread.
Want to see China's lockdown?

https://twitter.com/i/status/1226131773576425473

In case you can't see it or don't want to go there, it shows Chinese officials welding the doors of apartment buildings shut.


Quote:
Originally Posted by somewhere View Post
Japan still has very low rates of infection despite NOT having a loackdown. Japan is currently in the midst of a cold winter just like the UK and the US.

So why are the UK and US blaming China for their high rates of infection?
If China is lying about its infection rate, why is Japan having even LOWER rates than China?

Given its close proximity and being exposed a lot sooner, why is Japan having such low rates of infection? And did I mention no lockdown?

What about South Korea? They were hit with a SUPER spreader (from a cult no less), yet their rates of infection is still lower than the US and UK. And they are also NOT in lockdown. They have a cold winter, too.

Are Japan and South Korea lying about their numbers too?

If not, why is it hard to believe China's numbers?

China has a HARD lockdown, not just words from the government that cannot be enforced. There are people who have been trapped inside their homes for 50+ days. They are now donating masks and their doctors to other countries. If they have not contained the virus why are they donating their needed resources to other countries?
From the conspiracy theory guys: The Chinese government made the virus and programmed it to have less of an effect on Asian people, of course. Pretty obvious if you thing about it with your brain.
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