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View Poll Results: COVID 19 global infected fatality rate
100% we're all going to die 0 0%
>=10%, <100%, it's going to get really really nasty 2 11.76%
>=5%, <10%, we've been missing lots of deaths in the stats so far 0 0%
>=3%, <5%, the current case fatality rate will be the final rate 0 0%
>=2%, <3%, we'll get a small haircut on the final fatality rate 0 0%
>=1%, <2%, we'll get a reasonable haircut from case fatality 4 23.53%
>=0.5%, < 1%, the London college 0.7% is pretty good 5 29.41%
>=0.1% < 0.5%, there is significant under-reporting of infections 6 35.29%
<0.1% this will turn out to be less of an issue than the flu with massive under-reporting of infections 0 0%
Voters: 17. You may not vote on this poll

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  #1  
Old 04-03-2020, 10:56 AM
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Default COVID 19 global fatality rate poll

Best guess of what the final best estimate global fatality rate turns out to be. Unlikely we'll know this for a year or so, so just putting down the estimates for now

ETA for clarity, mortality rate for those who are infected (total mortality will be very dependent on social distancing measure, I'm interested in the best guess if we had done nothing).
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Old 04-03-2020, 11:03 AM
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And to clarify the clarity . . . you're working from "known infected" . . . right?
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Old 04-03-2020, 11:04 AM
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Needed a 42% option in there, too.
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Old 04-03-2020, 11:07 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vorian Atreides View Post
And to clarify the clarity . . . you're working from "known infected" . . . right?
No, I want the estimate when we come back in a year with better information.

The "known infected" at the moment is only relevant for my comments describing the ranges.

I expect a lot of detailed studies later based on anti-body testing to get a reasonable guess of what the real fatality of the disease is. I would be shocked if it was 3%. If it's the 0.8% from the Imperial college report that shut the world down I'd be surprised. I think it will be around 0.2% or so.
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Old 04-03-2020, 11:08 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vorian Atreides View Post
Needed a 42% option in there, too.
I'm sick of pandering to the 42 crowd, you want to see the answer without voting? There's a button for that (called "view poll results")
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Old 04-03-2020, 12:33 PM
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"42" is for "I think your poll is stupid."

If you want to know how stupid posters think your poll is, you include it.
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Old 04-03-2020, 03:24 PM
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So, I'm "supposed" to put it there so it's easier for people to bitch and moan? Given that's already about half the AO at this stage I'm comfortable opting out of that tradition.
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