Actuarial Outpost > CAS CAS Exam 7 Spring 2019 Progress Thread
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#1451
Yesterday, 04:31 PM
 Abomb7894 Member CAS Join Date: Jan 2014 Posts: 320

Quote:
 Originally Posted by DamSon Can someone explain why the number of testable correlations in Venter is n-3 choose 2? In a 4x4 triangle, n=4 so the number of testable correlations should be 0, but isn't there one set based on column 1 and 2 with 2 observations each?
Casual Fellow notes its not explained well, and says we want n-3 because we need at least 3 development factors and use choose 2 to ensure all column pairs, not just consecutive columns.

I can only assume you need at least 3 as T is distributed n-2, so you need some amount greater than that.
#1452
Yesterday, 07:28 PM
 actuarialgenes Member CAS Join Date: Apr 2017 Location: New England Studying for 7 Favorite beer: Wine Posts: 140

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Abomb7894 The first list is from Marshall for Internal Systemic Risks. The second risk is from Brehm talking about parameter risk I believe, but there's another list which is estimation, event, projection, and systematic. I think it's from two different chapters & is inconsistent.
Thanks!
#1453
Yesterday, 07:35 PM
 actuarialgenes Member CAS Join Date: Apr 2017 Location: New England Studying for 7 Favorite beer: Wine Posts: 140

Quote:
 Originally Posted by DamSon Can someone explain why the number of testable correlations in Venter is n-3 choose 2? In a 4x4 triangle, n=4 so the number of testable correlations should be 0, but isn't there one set based on column 1 and 2 with 2 observations each?
I think it says somewhere in the text that you want to exclude columns with 2 (or fewer) elements. The reason (I think) is that the numerator in the “T” test statistic you calculate will be 0 (regardless of what you calculate for “r”).

So in an n x n triangle you have n-1 factor columns, and you can’t use the last two (which have one and two elements), leaving you with (n-1)-2 = n-3 to choose 2 from.
#1454
Today, 01:23 AM
 DamSon Member CAS Join Date: Sep 2018 Location: NYC Studying for 7 Favorite beer: Alcoholic Posts: 83

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Abomb7894 Casual Fellow notes its not explained well, and says we want n-3 because we need at least 3 development factors and use choose 2 to ensure all column pairs, not just consecutive columns. I can only assume you need at least 3 as T is distributed n-2, so you need some amount greater than that.
Quote:
 Originally Posted by actuarialgenes I think it says somewhere in the text that you want to exclude columns with 2 (or fewer) elements. The reason (I think) is that the numerator in the “T” test statistic you calculate will be 0 (regardless of what you calculate for “r”). So in an n x n triangle you have n-1 factor columns, and you can’t use the last two (which have one and two elements), leaving you with (n-1)-2 = n-3 to choose 2 from.
Thanks everyone, what you guys said helps clear this up. As a follow up, are there any less common topics people feel like are likely to show up? In the middle of reviewing things like this right now, and I can't think of things past like table M, discounted reserves, and feldblum enhancement. Trying to go over problems I've done poorly on from the problem pack. Really need some new problems to work on now... tempted to do TIA exams 2-3 and just skip the BS questions

Last edited by DamSon; Today at 01:30 AM..
#1455
Today, 02:23 AM
 redearedslider Member CAS Join Date: Oct 2015 Posts: 13,733

Quote:
 Originally Posted by DamSon Thanks everyone, what you guys said helps clear this up. As a follow up, are there any less common topics people feel like are likely to show up? In the middle of reviewing things like this right now, and I can't think of things past like table M, discounted reserves, and feldblum enhancement. Trying to go over problems I've done poorly on from the problem pack. Really need some new problems to work on now... tempted to do TIA exams 2-3 and just skip the BS questions
You did all the CF and RF problems? What did you think of the RF problem pack? Might have to skip it but I’ll skim if there’s good stuff that CF missed
__________________
Quote:
 Originally Posted by Abraham Weishaus ASM does not have a discussion of stimulation, but considering how boring the manual is, maybe it would be a good idea.
#1456
Today, 02:57 AM
 DamSon Member CAS Join Date: Sep 2018 Location: NYC Studying for 7 Favorite beer: Alcoholic Posts: 83

Quote:
 Originally Posted by redearedslider You did all the CF and RF problems? What did you think of the RF problem pack? Might have to skip it but I’ll skim if there’s good stuff that CF missed
Yeah, I've done all the calculation problems from both twice as well as all the past exam problems in the CF manual once. I also re-do questions I didn't do well on from both every few days, so there are some problems I've done around 6-7 times.

I like the problem pack a lot, there are a lot of good questions in there. CF problems take a lot of time to do since they're pretty comprehensive and test multiple areas at a time, but the RF problems test one topic at a time and are more in the format/wording of the exam imo. If you're looking to test your comprehension, you can't go wrong with either. However if you want more exam style prep questions, it's worth skimming through the problem pack on topics you don't feel as comfortable on.

For Brehm, I think CF is better than RF if you repeatedly do the essay questions, but I made flash cards for all of those so it takes less time cause writing out 40 shapland/brehm essay questions would just kill my hand. However, the RF questions on Brehm help to synthesize what you know in theory and apply it to specific scenarios he gives in many cases.

 Tags brehm is my daddy, cfrf needs a forum, cs was here, firsttag, hi cs, mack 69