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  #1  
Old 03-24-2020, 09:10 AM
Bert Macklin FBI Bert Macklin FBI is offline
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Default COVID-19 Exposure Monitoring

Hey All,

Trying to attempt some exposure monitoring for personal auto and home to anticipate the impact of COVID-19. There are miles driven reports out there, but most of what I have found has a reporting lag of a year or so. Has anyone leveraged reports out there, public or not, to anticipate exposure or proxies for exposure to anticipate COVID-19 impacts?
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Old 03-24-2020, 02:50 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bert Macklin FBI View Post
Hey All,

Trying to attempt some exposure monitoring for personal auto and home to anticipate the impact of COVID-19. There are miles driven reports out there, but most of what I have found has a reporting lag of a year or so. Has anyone leveraged reports out there, public or not, to anticipate exposure or proxies for exposure to anticipate COVID-19 impacts?
Are you saying on loss or premium?
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Old 03-24-2020, 06:30 PM
McUSA McUSA is offline
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For auto, I would expect a dramatic decrease in frequency due to lower miles driven. Enough to have to adjust for this going forward. Interesting how the regulators will see this "windfall" in the sense the profits are real but the data isn't appropriate for future exposures. Sort of a negative contingency.
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Old 03-25-2020, 07:38 AM
Harbinger Harbinger is offline
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https://www.arity.com/move/americans...-driving-less/
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Old 03-25-2020, 11:15 AM
tpgrove tpgrove is offline
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I have been looking to monitor exposure by looking at live crash statistics at the state level. I've got OH and KY. Certainly mileage is down but by how much? Accidents could be a great proxy for mileage exposure. Anyone aware of other states that have this level of detail?

OH - https://ohtrafficdata.dps.ohio.gov/CrashStatistics/Home
KY - http://crashinformationky.org/AdvancedSearch
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Old 04-03-2020, 12:45 PM
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I'm a life guy, so I'm just here as a consumer of auto/home insurance.


I showed up here because I was wondering how this would affect claims...and, ultimately, premiums.


Many, many, many years ago State Farm paid me a dividend because...well, because they obviously had extra money. I haven't had one since.


Does a whole bunch of people staying at home increase claims in other areas? e.g., guy falls off ladder because he has time to clean the windows now.
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Old 04-03-2020, 03:05 PM
sticks1839 sticks1839 is offline
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Ultimately the lower driving could work into premiums, but it'll be slow and the magnitude will depend a lot on how carriers treat the dip. If the economy truly rebounds and driving returns to normal, many carriers might try to exclude the dip since it's not indicative of the future. Most likely this will result in some level of recession and continued lower miles driven that will work into rates.

As for State Farm and dividend, that's a distinct possibility. I don't work for SF, but I believe any dividend would be based on Auto results only. You probably haven't seen one in a long time because they tend to run an UW loss and rely on investment income for profit, especially when competing on price with the Geico/Progressive low expense carriers.
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Old 04-03-2020, 03:27 PM
nonactuarialactuary nonactuarialactuary is offline
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Toll revenue on highways/bridges/tunnels/etc. might be one way to quantify this. Compare March 2020 to the March average from 2015-2019 to get a quick back of the envelope estimate of the total drop in exposure. Not sure how much of that is public though or how quickly it's available. You might be dealing with year+ lags in data availability, but it wouldn't surprise me if some of the info is real time.

Gasoline revenue would provide a similar metric. With both sources, you'd want to on-level for changes in toll rates / new toll roads / gas prices.

Google would be a great source too. Their traffic maps show green around all major cities now during rush hour, when those same maps showed red a month ago. Google is pretty good about providing real time data, though you might have to pay for it if you want something for commercial purposes.
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Old 04-03-2020, 03:42 PM
sticks1839 sticks1839 is offline
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I typically use this to track overall trends in miles driven.

https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinfor...toring/tvt.cfm

But it's a couple month lag, which isn't as helpful here. Can't wait for the March/April reports...
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Old 04-03-2020, 04:05 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sticks1839 View Post
Ultimately the lower driving could work into premiums, but it'll be slow and the magnitude will depend a lot on how carriers treat the dip. If the economy truly rebounds and driving returns to normal, many carriers might try to exclude the dip since it's not indicative of the future. Most likely this will result in some level of recession and continued lower miles driven that will work into rates.

As for State Farm and dividend, that's a distinct possibility. I don't work for SF, but I believe any dividend would be based on Auto results only. You probably haven't seen one in a long time because they tend to run an UW loss and rely on investment income for profit, especially when competing on price with the Geico/Progressive low expense carriers.
I'm pretty sure that in the "current" competitive market, a company with "extra cash" deciding what to do with it between "give it to current policyholders" or "decrease profit provision to attract new customers" isn't going to be too interested in not attracting new customers when the same action still benefits current policyholders.
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