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  #61  
Old 01-28-2020, 05:56 AM
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From a friend who (usually) does business in China:

Quote:
"Considering the current situation in China regarding the Coronavirus, the Chinese government just announced that the Chinese New Year Holiday will extend until 02 Feb., 2020. As of 27 Jan., both Shanghai and Suzhou governments just announced that the holiday will extend to 09 Feb., 2020."
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  #62  
Old 01-28-2020, 08:43 AM
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107 deaths, 4474 confirmed cases, 63 recoveries. Graph of confirmed cases at bottom left is starting to look pretty exponential.
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  #63  
Old 01-28-2020, 08:59 AM
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Confirmed person to person transmission occurred in Germany. Company had brought trainer in from China. Trainer started feeling ill during return trip to China, went to hospital, got tested and confirmed case. Trainer had visited family in Wuhan prior to trip to Germany. German patient doing OK. Company now suspending all business travel to/from China.
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  #64  
Old 01-28-2020, 12:20 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fdsafdsa View Post
107 deaths, 4474 confirmed cases, 63 recoveries. Graph of confirmed cases at bottom left is starting to look pretty exponential.
Wow. I hadn't really been paying attention until yesterday. And the article I read yesterday was saying the death rate is 3%. I should have realized the press would just divide a snapshot of deaths by infections, ignoring the time it takes to either kill you or recover. 107 deaths and 63 recoveries is a LOT different than 3%.
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  #65  
Old 01-28-2020, 12:32 PM
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"I'm not dead yet!!!"

"I'm getting better!"
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  #66  
Old 01-28-2020, 12:42 PM
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So, just to understand, you're saying that number of people that died is almost twice the number of "you're fine and can leave the hospital, go on with your life"?
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  #67  
Old 01-28-2020, 12:50 PM
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I guess the interpretation depends greatly on whether it takes a long time to recover or a long time to die.
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  #68  
Old 01-28-2020, 01:00 PM
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Could also be that people with weaker immune systems succumb faster, and the survival rate could still climb.

But yeah that's horrifying at first glance.
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  #69  
Old 01-28-2020, 01:11 PM
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And it only takes into account confirmed cases. Most I've read are estimating that there are/were likely many more cases that aren't/weren't confirmed either because 1) They never had severe enough symptoms to go to the hospital in the first place and/or 2) there is a shortage of testing kits and they would triage to test the sicker people. The more severe cases are the ones they would go through the process of getting confirmed in the first place.

Probably still way too early to know an actual mortality rate, considering all the unknowns.
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Old 01-28-2020, 01:12 PM
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And it only takes into account confirmed cases. Most I've read are estimating that there are/were likely many more cases that aren't/weren't confirmed either because 1) They never had severe enough symptoms to go to the hospital in the first place and/or 2) there is a shortage of testing kits and they would triage to test the sicker people. The more severe cases are the ones they would go through the process of getting confirmed in the first place.

Probably still way too early to know an actual mortality rate, considering all the unknowns.
I think we're at just the point however where it is appropriate to start panicking.

I may pick up a giant bag of rice and dried beans on the way home just in case it hits the proverbial fan.
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