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Old 03-17-2020, 05:57 PM
tommie frazier tommie frazier is offline
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We have NAT discussion, we have political. Some discussion points:

-NJ as a state trying to carve-in business interruption coverage

-some have mentioned the impact on the healthcare provider system. What about payers? A sizable subset of the population going in for additional care (or testing) would be a huge hit to the surplus, no? Pandemic covers and agg result reinsurance not super common, as health plans don't buy like property writers to protect against the 1-100 aggregate event typically. Will higher capitalization in the future be required?

-Health Ins - results will certainly be harmed by additional losses. What about premium that isn't paid? Is it crazy to think that govt wouldn't try to bar health plans from cancelling coverage for someone for failure to pay premium (or delay such termination of coverage)?

-If employers go bankrupt, where do the employees under plan go for coverage? Is COBRA going to keep them in plan for the no-longer existing company? What if they can't pay cobra premium (you know, owing to job loss)? Will Medicaid be able to take all the suddenly not-able to pay members?

- Group life risk (if no event protected) for spread within an employee group?

- P&C MedMal - hospitals that chose not to give respiratory machine to A over B. Prof Liab against LTC facilities or other senior housing.

- P&C - work comp - outbreaks among health care facility staff and LTC facilitystaff.

Let's get the list going...
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Old 03-17-2020, 06:06 PM
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Overall contraction in the economy will hit premium volume for most commercial P&C lines.

Sudden reduction in miles driven could significantly improve auto experience if work from home and social isolation persist for much of the year.
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Old 03-17-2020, 06:31 PM
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P&C: Employers Liability: If an employee gets sick because their employer forced them into the workplace despite recommendations from governmental officials, can they successfully sue their employers?
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Old 03-17-2020, 06:31 PM
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There's similar list here too: https://www.reddit.com/r/actuary/com...iting_outlook/ maybe you can reference some stuffs from here?

As far as I know, COBRA coverage goes away if employer stops offering coverage. So I would normally think if employer goes bankrupt, no coverage is avail (unless law is amended). Small businesses aren't required to have COBRA anyway, and they are the ones likely to go out of business I think.
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Old 03-17-2020, 07:02 PM
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P&C

Claims should go down, as people drive less, and commercial establishments are doing less business.

On the other hand, premium will also go down. #vehicles probably won't decrease, but people who are out of work are not going to be prioritizing the bill for the car they aren't driving on empty roads. And just like the utilities are being told not to shut off services, I expect we'll have to pay claims on those policies if they DO get in an accident, at least in some states.

WC is based on payroll, which will be down. GL premium is based on all sorts of stuff, but "revenue" is pretty common. And of course, companies that go belly-up won't be paying insurance premiums.

As I said in the other thread, I'm sure the P&C industry will be sued for comp claims from people who think they caught SARS2 from work. We'll pay a lot of expenses for those claims. We may pay a lot of losses. It's going to vary by state.
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Old 03-17-2020, 08:24 PM
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How about the investment income for P&C? Most of the net income for P&C is driven by investment income anyway, with premium goes down and interest rate drops to the bottom, there will be a drastic shift to UW profit?
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Old 03-17-2020, 10:22 PM
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I figured the investment income issue was obvious.
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Old 03-18-2020, 09:03 AM
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For health I'd expect to see a significant decrease in elective surgeries or any non essential procedure. I wouldn't be surprised if this outweighs the costs of pandemic testing, we'll see about treatment.

I expect this to be a major issue for hospital systems.
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Old 03-18-2020, 09:20 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lucy View Post
P&C

Claims should go down, as people drive less, and commercial establishments are doing less business.

On the other hand, premium will also go down. #vehicles probably won't decrease, but people who are out of work are not going to be prioritizing the bill for the car they aren't driving on empty roads. And just like the utilities are being told not to shut off services, I expect we'll have to pay claims on those policies if they DO get in an accident, at least in some states.

WC is based on payroll, which will be down. GL premium is based on all sorts of stuff, but "revenue" is pretty common. And of course, companies that go belly-up won't be paying insurance premiums.

As I said in the other thread, I'm sure the P&C industry will be sued for comp claims from people who think they caught SARS2 from work. We'll pay a lot of expenses for those claims. We may pay a lot of losses. It's going to vary by state.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lucy View Post
I figured the investment income issue was obvious.
yeah, some expected effects are obvious...
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Old 03-18-2020, 12:29 PM
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More P&C:

Homeowners effects will be complex, due to increased incidence of occupancy.

D&O results tend to suck when the business failure rate is up.

Surety has the potential to turn ugly, although the nature and magnitude of that ugliness will depend on what kinds of bonds a carrier is writing.
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