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 Short-Term Actuarial Math Old Exam C Forum

#21
11-09-2010, 03:30 PM
 gosuruss Member SOA Join Date: Feb 2007 Favorite beer: whatever is free Posts: 4,365 Blog Entries: 2

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Agadefe And it does hold up for computer exams (technically). Assuming that each answer is independent, the probability that you will have 5 Ds and 5 Es is C(10,5) (.2)^10, which is higher than any other combination of Ds and Es.
thinking about it, you are right.
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No rational argument will have a rational effect on a man who does not want to adopt a rational attitude. -Karl Popper
#22
11-09-2010, 03:37 PM
 JuicyJuice Member Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 409

Quote:
 Originally Posted by deterednot YOU have a problem and the SOA doesn't. Also, where did you see in my post anything about guess letter? Are you just dreaming it? How does this affect your life?
Ok you are right. I must have misread your post thinking that you were asking people for the letter they went with. My bad.
#23
11-10-2010, 09:47 AM
 annicus Member CAS Join Date: Sep 2008 Location: Los Angeles, CA Studying for 3L College: Yale Alum Favorite beer: Duvel, Newcastle, Delirium Noel Posts: 30

he had a problem with his own question.

hope your guessing strategy worked for you!
#24
11-10-2010, 10:12 AM
 ldancer911 Member Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 17,283

Count up my different answers...use the least common letter for questions I don't know. That simple. Only takes a couple of minutes to do (longer since now to tally up all the answers you have to click through each question instead of just looking at the answer sheet). I figure if I deserve to pass the exam I should at most need a couple of those right to pass, guessing a single answer should give you.
#25
11-10-2010, 12:23 PM
 My Dogs Are Barking! Member SOA Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 151

I used the strategy of ldancer for MLC but for C since it is computer based I just stare at the answers until one of them pops out at me. Very scientific I know.
#26
11-10-2010, 03:25 PM
 Agadefe Member SOA Join Date: Nov 2009 Location: Philly Posts: 27,192

Quote:
 Originally Posted by ldancer911 Count up my different answers...use the least common letter for questions I don't know. That simple. Only takes a couple of minutes to do (longer since now to tally up all the answers you have to click through each question instead of just looking at the answer sheet). I figure if I deserve to pass the exam I should at most need a couple of those right to pass, guessing a single answer should give you.

This is exactly what I did. As mentioned earlier, I got pretty lucky in that the 6 questions I didn't know at all, I had a very uneven distribution, so I am sure I got at least 2 right.

I'll be pleased when I see my 6.
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Hi.
#27
11-10-2010, 04:02 PM
 epeddy1 Member SOA AAA Join Date: Jan 2010 Location: East Coast Studying for None!!! College: U of Chief Illiniwek Posts: 8,613

I usually flip an imaginary coin in my head, and when I get the first tails, I go with that answer (Geometric Distribution anyone?). For example, if I flip the coin in my head and it lands heads, I flip again. If it's then tails, I go with B. If I get 5 heads in a row, I just start over with A. So if I get my first heads on flip number 7, I go with B. However, it doesn't work as well when you keep getting heads. One time, the imaginary coin landed heads 23 times and cost me about 4 minutes of time. Also, it's frustrating when the imaginary coin lands on it's side, hate when that happens.
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Quote:
 Originally Posted by 3rookie I agree with epeddy's comments.
Quote:
 Originally Posted by GeneralTso oh wow. epeddy's advice is incredible.
The story of my life: It's not that I'm in denial of being a nerd. It's that everyone else is in denial of how incredibly cool I am.
#28
11-11-2010, 04:40 AM
 GeneralTso Member Join Date: Sep 2010 Posts: 43

look for trap answers. there are times you can get the right answer just by knowing the final step. for example, if it asks for average payment per payment, as opposed to loss, and you can't figure out how to do it, its generally pretty easy to at least figure out the chance of survival. the majority of the time, you'll see two choices with one being another divided by survival.

imo, i think its a waste of time to look for the least used answer choice and pick that one. you're assuming you got your other answers correct and even if you did, i'd guess any choice is just as good as another. this smells a lot like putting a ton of money on black just because you see a string of reds on the roulette table...

*edit* oh wow. epeddy's advice is incredible. its gotta be borderline cheating. its like when i ask the voices in my head what i should do. when it works, its 100% accurate.

Last edited by GeneralTso; 11-11-2010 at 04:47 AM..
#29
11-11-2010, 10:10 AM
 Josia Member SOA AAA Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 400

Quote:
 Originally Posted by epeddy1 I usually flip an imaginary coin in my head, and when I get the first tails, I go with that answer (Geometric Distribution anyone?). For example, if I flip the coin in my head and it lands heads, I flip again. If it's then tails, I go with B. If I get 5 heads in a row, I just start over with A. So if I get my first heads on flip number 7, I go with B. However, it doesn't work as well when you keep getting heads. One time, the imaginary coin landed heads 23 times and cost me about 4 minutes of time. Also, it's frustrating when the imaginary coin lands on it's side, hate when that happens.
This technique can be used successfully for all questions, not just guessing. When the coin lands on its side, I just mark the question for review.
#30
11-11-2010, 11:20 AM
 epeddy1 Member SOA AAA Join Date: Jan 2010 Location: East Coast Studying for None!!! College: U of Chief Illiniwek Posts: 8,613

Quote:
 Originally Posted by GeneralTso *edit* oh wow. epeddy's advice is incredible. its gotta be borderline cheating. its like when i ask the voices in my head what i should do. when it works, its 100% accurate.
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Quote:
 Originally Posted by 3rookie I agree with epeddy's comments.
Quote:
 Originally Posted by GeneralTso oh wow. epeddy's advice is incredible.
The story of my life: It's not that I'm in denial of being a nerd. It's that everyone else is in denial of how incredibly cool I am.