Predict my score and win nothing

[Sarah Marsh]

Thank you to the four people who answered my previous poll, but I wanted to redo it.

Yes, I realize this is pointless. But I'm going crazy waiting and maybe this will pass the time.

I wasn't able record my answers on exam day. On 19 of the problems I immediately got answers that matched one of the answers given. I didn't have time to doublecheck any of them.

I remember on one of the practice exams I took (the only time I bothered to note this), that out of 12 questions on which I immediately got an answer, I think 4 or 5 turned out to be wrong. So let's be generous and say 33%, which means I got maybe 12-13 correct.

So for the next 11 I basically guessed (give or take 2-3 that I probably had a vague idea but still basically guessed). The expected value of that would be about 2, and from what I remember there's something like a 75% chance I would get at least two correct with the guessing. So maybe I got around 15 correct? How many will I need anyway?

Anyways, please vote on my poll.

[aminesky]

i was one of the four people who answered your previous poll, but girl lol,
this is pure poll abuse

[Sarah Marsh]

Well, I reefed the original in consideration for people who don't like to see polls.

[Macroman]

I don't mean to be cruel but I predict a 2.

[sd978]

Originally Posted by Macroman

I don't mean to be cruel but I predict a 2.

Let’s say If the pass mark is 20 then a score of 10 means a score of 3
So if you are saying that a score of 15 gets a 2 then the pass mark is as high as 30!!

[mhsmith]

My gut says that the pass mark is either 17 or 18 (although considering I think I got 16 right, a pass mark of 16 would be totally awesome!), so I'd say you're probably looking at a 3 or a 4 based on your description.

That said, it's entirely possible the pass mark will be even higher than I think, maybe even 20 or so, which means that it could be worse than my estimate.

[notmyfriends]

How come it won't let me pick 10?

[commonpa]

Originally Posted by mhsmith

My gut says that the pass mark is either 17 or 18 (although considering I think I got 16 right, a pass mark of 16 would be totally awesome!), so I'd say you're probably looking at a 3 or a 4 based on your description.

That said, it's entirely possible the pass mark will be even higher than I think, maybe even 20 or so, which means that it could be worse than my estimate.

passmark of 20 would be largely out of line with recent MLC pass marks. (based on AOers, as SOA hasn't released pass mark until now)

[mhsmith]

Originally Posted by commonpa

passmark of 20 would be largely out of line with recent MLC pass marks. (based on AOers, as SOA hasn't released pass mark until now)

I would be quite surprised if it happened. That said, I can't rule it out. The average PAK mark if I remember right (ignoring super-low scores) was over 20, which I think was appreciably higher than the PAK last time. Moreover, there has been a sense that the exam was a bit easier than last time, and if you believe they made the pass mark more generous for the first offering, then that's another reason to expect a higher pass mark.

If it turns out that most people did a lot better than last time, and they eliminate the "first time bonus point" (I don't know if it was there, but I wouldn't be surprised), then you have to assume that it's going to be higher than the spring mark of 16 (technically 15/29 b/c of the freebit). I'd guess one or two points, but as many as four points wouldn't be hugely shocking IMO (though of course it would totally suck).

Also, this isn't the old M exam, because they split it into parts, which means there's much less material to cover. That means that it's at least possible that people would tend to get higher percentages right than on the old M exam, which would make higher pass marks potentially reasonable.

Basically, I'd guess 17-18 with a decent error range attached, mainly on the upside. Although as I said before, I'd be thrilled with a lower passmark.

[keyser soze]

Originally Posted by sd978

Let’s say If the pass mark is 20 then a score of 10 means a score of 3
So if you are saying that a score of 15 gets a 2 then the pass mark is as high as 30!!

I think a 10 would be a one in that case wouldn't it?
20 = 6 --->
19-18 = 5
17-16 = 4
15-14 = 3
13-12 = 2
11-10 = 1
9 -> = not effective