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 View Poll Results: Pass Mark? <10 8 6.40% 10 12 9.60% 11 48 38.40% 12 49 39.20% 13+ 8 6.40% Voters: 125. You may not vote on this poll

#21
05-16-2008, 01:17 PM
 seattleguy Member Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: Left Coast Studying for MLC Favorite beer: Mac & Jac's African Amber Posts: 387

Yeah, when I did the numbers (based on the PAK) I found higher percentages for each score than candle: Score and Pass Percentages

I should have saved the Excel file I made, so you could play around with it.

(Note: I used the answers from this post for calculating scores)

Last edited by seattleguy; 05-16-2008 at 01:21 PM..
#22
05-16-2008, 01:48 PM
 candle21428 Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 27

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Will221 candle, I think you made a mistake, 3 is a pretty clear B to me... also, 17 is certainly not C if you look at the threadon it, it would be B or A
It is a "modified" PAK (#1 A->E, #3 B->D, #11 C->B)

Here is the result if 17 is A or B (N=111).

Average >=11 >=12 >=13
Modified PAK 11.02702703 57.66% 38.74% 26.13%
Modified PAK + 17=A 10.75675676 52.25% 32.43% 22.52%
Modified PAK + 17=B 10.71171171 53.15% 32.43% 19.82%
#23
05-16-2008, 02:10 PM
 J_Mo Member SOA Join Date: May 2007 Location: Iowa Studying for Exam C College: Wartburg College (Alumni) Favorite beer: Shiner Bock Posts: 236

I will be very surprised if the pass mark is anything but 12. Since it has been 12 on the prior two administrations, it will probably be 12 on this one.

Regardless of what the socities say, the 8-10 week delay in getting official results probably isn't because they want to determine an appropriate pass mark, it is to look for anomalies in results i.e. three people from this exam center all had identical papers, let's look at where they were sitting in relation to each other and check the work in their books. I guess it does give them a chance to investigate any potentially defective questions. Note on that, just because a question was "too hard" and the majority of the people missed it, doesn't mean it will be thrown out.

BTW - you would think that they would be getting quicker at getting official scores out - wasn't the published expectation 6-8 weeks before? 8-10 seems like an eternity. Unless they are saying 8-10 so that people will be happy when it "only" takes them 8 weeks.

Not to be mean, but actually, I kind of want the pass mark to be 12. Based on the PAK that would give make my score 4. If it is set at 11, that will give me what I consider the worst possible score of 5. I would rather get a 4 than a 5 and think I was one correct answer away from passing. I'm probably just sick in the head from studying this stuff.
__________________
"I love numbers... God help me, I love 'em" - Norm Peterson on Cheers
#24
05-16-2008, 02:29 PM
 blahbla Member Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 1,408

Quote:
 Originally Posted by candle21428 It is a "modified" PAK (#1 A->E, #3 B->D, #11 C->B) Here is the result if 17 is A or B (N=111). Average >=11 >=12 >=13 Modified PAK 11.02702703 57.66% 38.74% 26.13% Modified PAK + 17=A 10.75675676 52.25% 32.43% 22.52% Modified PAK + 17=B 10.71171171 53.15% 32.43% 19.82%

i think the pass mark will be 11, that is soo brutal to only pass 30% when the an additional 20% got just one more question wrong!! c'mon its not like were going from 50% to 70%
#25
05-16-2008, 02:32 PM
 ScubaChris Member CAS Join Date: May 2006 Location: Jersey City, NJ Studying for 6US College: TCNJ Favorite beer: Three Philosophers Posts: 524

Quote:
 Originally Posted by blahbla i think the pass mark will be 11, that is soo brutal to only pass 30% when the an additional 20% got just one more question wrong!! c'mon its not like were going from 50% to 70%
That is assuming we are representative of the entire population of exam takers which I doubt.

However, if only 30% of AO's would pass that generally means the pass rate would be even lower for the entire population.
#26
05-16-2008, 02:42 PM
 Actiger Member SOA AAA Join Date: May 2007 Location: NYC Studying for Modules & CFA Level III College: Waterloo Posts: 1,244

What was #3? Why did it change?
#27
05-16-2008, 02:42 PM
 clearwater80 Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 8

Quote:
 Originally Posted by candle21428 It is a "modified" PAK (#1 A->E, #3 B->D, #11 C->B) Here is the result if 17 is A or B (N=111). Average >=11 >=12 >=13 Modified PAK 11.02702703 57.66% 38.74% 26.13% Modified PAK + 17=A 10.75675676 52.25% 32.43% 22.52% Modified PAK + 17=B 10.71171171 53.15% 32.43% 19.82%
#5 should be switched from B to D, not #3
#28
05-16-2008, 02:43 PM
 Actiger Member SOA AAA Join Date: May 2007 Location: NYC Studying for Modules & CFA Level III College: Waterloo Posts: 1,244

Quote:
 Originally Posted by clearwater80 #5 should be switched from B to D, not #3
I know. Wrong thing changed
#29
05-16-2008, 02:47 PM
 J_Mo Member SOA Join Date: May 2007 Location: Iowa Studying for Exam C College: Wartburg College (Alumni) Favorite beer: Shiner Bock Posts: 236

That also assumes that the PAK is correct. It seems like we are ironing out most of the disputes, but it may be a week or so before we have a more reliable/stable PAK.

They aren't opposed to having a 35% pass rate. Look at exam P, that is normally in the range of a 35% pass rate. If I remember right, I think after last fall's MFE exam someone on this forum cited an unidentified inside source that said the goal of the SOA is to target a pass rate for each exam in the 35% range, and that the 50-60% pass rates on FM and MFE were troubling to them.

If that was their goal with this exam - then job well done.
__________________
"I love numbers... God help me, I love 'em" - Norm Peterson on Cheers
#30
05-16-2008, 02:53 PM
 Hawkeye16 Member SOA AAA Join Date: Jul 2007 Favorite beer: Anything Dark Posts: 1,171

Even with a 20% pass rate looks like I'll be doing alright assuming the PAK is right!

You guys are going to drive yourself nuts over the next 8 weeks if you keep these debates up! It gives me a headache just thinking about it!

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