Posnanski on 300-Game Winners

[Pseudolus]

Thought this was interesting.

So, how do you get to 300? Well, this will sound blindingly obvious, I know, but in order to win 300 games in the big leagues, you pretty much have to win a lot of games as an old man. Blindingly obvious, yes, but this might gets at the question Bill James and I began to talk about in our co-column: Why is it that every time someone wins 300 games (as Randy Johnson should do in the next couple of weeks) people assume that he will be the last one ever to do it?

The reason, I think, is that you can’t project 300 because you have absolutely no idea who is going to win a lot of games from ages 35-44 — and having looked hard at the 12 pitchers who have won 300 (I’m already counting Randy Johnson), winning in those later years is the key to winning 300.

That is, nobody since World War II has clinched 300 victories with dominating performances in their 20s. One way to look at it is to take a look at the winningest pitchers, by age, since the war:

Most wins to 25: Dwight Gooden with 119 (career wins 194), Denny McLain with 114 (career wins 131) — none of Top 17 won 300.

Most wins to 27: Gooden with 142, Don Drysdale with 141 (career wins 209) — none of Top 10 won 300.

Most wins to 29: Catfish Hunter with 184 (career wins 224), Robin Roberts with 179 (career wins 286) — none in Top 6 won 300.

Most wins to 31: Catfish Hunter with 210, Robin Roberts with 206 — none in Top 5 won 300.

[...]

http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009...-workout-plan/

[Dr T Non-Fan]

So the question really is: HOW do you win so many games over 35 years of age?

Guesses:
1. Play on high-scoring teams that win games for you while you take credit for them.
2. Good mechanics and strong legs, taking stress off the arm and shoulder.
3. Steroids, to build strong leg muscles.

[Requiem]

I guess this doesn't apply to Johnson, but I think that if someone can learn to pitch with command and movement in their pitches, they have a better chance of pitching well into their 40s (like Greg Maddux)

[Dr T Non-Fan]

In short, your career can't end. Evoid career-ending incidents. Injuries, mostly.

[Desert Tortoise]

This article ignores the fact that a win today is less significant than it was in the past due to the decreased innings pitched by the starting pitcher and the fact that pitchers almost never throw complete games anymore. It's an interesting historical artifact but how can we know it applies to the way the game is played today?

[Pseudolus]

Well, cuts both ways. With decreased innings per start there's a greater chance that the bullpen will blow a lead. So in that sense it's now harder for a starting pitcher to get a win and so you might call a win "more significant".

Or you could just notice that the author sez:

I realize, of course, that victories is a generally lousy way to rank pitchers, but it is what it is. Three hundred victories is an iconic thing.

[Dr T Non-Fan]

Originally Posted by Pseudolus

Well, cuts both ways. With decreased innings per start there's a greater chance that the bullpen will blow a lead. So in that sense it's now harder for a starting pitcher to get a win and so you might call a win "more significant".

No, I wouldn't. I would consider the statistic more insignificant if it cannot tell me anything about pitchers.
Pretty much what the author states, except he just can't shake himself of his own innumeracy.
And using, "IIWII," is an abomination.

[Ginormous76]

Let's also not forget that back in the day, pitchers would pitch almost every day. How did they do that? I still don't get it.

[Dr T Non-Fan]

Originally Posted by Ginormous76

Let's also not forget that back in the day, pitchers would pitch almost every day. How did they do that? I still don't get it.

On average:
1. They weren't that good.
2. The hitters weren't that good.
3. Bigger strike zone.
4. Hitters weren't fouling off pitches on purpose as trained, in order to tire out pitcher.

Your back in day = Cy Young's time and earlier. I recall Christy Mathewson pitching three out of four games once, all shoutouts IIRC.

[Dr T Non-Fan]

These days, the most efficient way for a pitcher to get wins is to ask to relieve games in which his team is behind or tied, then hold the opposition at bay while the offense comes back. Probably win 30 games a year that way, by being the one credited with the win while actually doing not much.